Opinion fluctuations and disagreement in social networks

We study a tractable opinion dynamics model that generates long-run disagreements and persistent opinion fluctuations. Our model involves an inhomogeneous stochastic gossip process of continuous opinion dynamics in a society consisting of two types of agents: regular agents, who update their beliefs according to information that they receive from their social neighbors; and stubborn agents, who never update their opinions. When the society contains stubborn agents with different opinions, the belief dynamics never lead to a consensus (among the regular agents). Instead, beliefs in the society fail to converge almost surely, the belief profile keeps on fluctuating in an ergodic fashion, and it converges in law to a non-degenerate random vector. The structure of the network and the location of the stubborn agents within it shape the opinion dynamics. The expected belief vector evolves according to an ordinary differential equation coinciding with the Kolmogorov backward equation of a continuous-time Markov chain with absorbing states corresponding to the stubborn agents and converges to a harmonic vector, with every regular agent's value being the weighted average of its neighbors' values, and boundary conditions corresponding to the stubborn agents'. Expected cross-products of the agents' beliefs allow for a similar characterization in terms of coupled Markov chains on the network. We prove that, in large-scale societies which are highly fluid, meaning that the product of the mixing time of the Markov chain on the graph describing the social network and the relative size of the linkages to stubborn agents vanishes as the population size grows large, a condition of \emph{homogeneous influence} emerges, whereby the stationary beliefs' marginal distributions of most of the regular agents have approximately equal first and second moments.Comment: 33 pages, accepted for publication in Mathematics of Operation Researc

Scale-free interpersonal influences on opinions in complex systems

An important side effect of the evolution of the human brain is an increased capacity to form opinions in a very large domain of issues, which become points of aggressive interpersonal disputes. Remarkably, such disputes are often no less vigorous on small differences of opinion than large differences. Opinion differences that may be measured on the real number line may not directly correspond to the subjective importance of an issue and extent of resistance to opinion change. This is a hard problem for field of opinion dynamics, a field that has become increasingly prominent as it has attracted more contributions to it from investigators in the natural and engineering sciences. The paper contributes a scale-free approach to assessing the extents to which individuals, with unknown heterogeneous resistances to influence, have been influenced by the opinions of others

Effects of Network Communities and Topology Changes in Message-Passing Computation of Harmonic Influence in Social Networks

The harmonic influence is a measure of the importance of nodes in social networks, which can be approximately computed by a distributed message-passing algorithm. In this extended abstract we look at two open questions about this algorithm. How does it perform on real social networks, which have complex topologies structured in communities? How does it perform when the network topology changes while the algorithm is running? We answer these two questions by numerical experiments on a Facebook ego network and on synthetic networks, respectively. We find out that communities can introduce artefacts in the final approximation and cause the algorithm to overestimate the importance of "local leaders" within communities. We also observe that the algorithm is able to adapt smoothly to changes in the topology.Comment: 4 pages, 7 figures, submitted as conference extended abstrac

On a Modified DeGroot-Friedkin Model of Opinion Dynamics

This paper studies the opinion dynamics that result when individuals consecutively discuss a sequence of issues. Specifically, we study how individuals' self-confidence levels evolve via a reflected appraisal mechanism. Motivated by the DeGroot-Friedkin model, we propose a Modified DeGroot-Friedkin model which allows individuals to update their self-confidence levels by only interacting with their neighbors and in particular, the modified model allows the update of self-confidence levels to take place in finite time without waiting for the opinion process to reach a consensus on any particular issue. We study properties of this Modified DeGroot-Friedkin model and compare the associated equilibria and stability with those of the original DeGroot-Friedkin model. Specifically, for the case when the interaction matrix is doubly stochastic, we show that for the modified model, the vector of individuals' self-confidence levels asymptotically converges to a unique nontrivial equilibrium which for each individual is equal to 1/n, where n is the number of individuals. This implies that eventually, individuals reach a democratic state

On the Steady State of Continuous Time Stochastic Opinion Dynamics with Power Law Confidence

This paper introduces a class of non-linear and continuous-time opinion dynamics model with additive noise and state dependent interaction rates between agents. The model features interaction rates which are proportional to a negative power of opinion distances. We establish a non-local partial differential equation for the distribution of opinion distances and use Mellin transforms to provide an explicit formula for the stationary solution of the latter, when it exists. Our approach leads to new qualitative and quantitative results on this type of dynamics. To the best of our knowledge these Mellin transform results are the first quantitative results on the equilibria of opinion dynamics with distance-dependent interaction rates. The closed form expressions for this class of dynamics are obtained for the two agent case. However the results can be used in mean-field models featuring several agents whose interaction rates depend on the empirical average of their opinions. The technique also applies to linear dynamics, namely with a constant interaction rate, on an interaction graph