14,053 research outputs found
The stability of macroeconomic systems with Bayesian learners
We study abstract macroeconomic systems in which expectations play an important role. Consistent with the recent literature on recursive learning and expectations, we replace the agents in the economy with econometricians. Unlike the recursive learning literature, however, the econometricians in the analysis here are Bayesian learners. We are interested in the extent to which expectational stability remains the key concept in the Bayesian environment. We isolate conditions under which versions of expectational stability conditions govern the stability of these systems just as in the standard case of recursive learning. We conclude that the more sophisticated Bayesian learning schemes do not alter the essential expectational stability findings in the literature.Rational expectations (Economic theory)
The Stability of Macroeconomic Systems with Bayesian Learners
We study abstract macroeconomic systems in which expectations play an important role. Consistent with the recent literature on recursive learning and expectations, we replace the agents in the economy with econometricians. Unlike the recursive learning literature, however, the econometricians in the analysis here are Bayesian learners. We are interested in the extent to which expectational stability remains the key concept in the Bayesian environment. We isolate conditions under which versions of expectational stability conditions govern the stability of these systems just as in the standard case of recursive learning. We conclude that Bayesian learning schemes, while they are more sophisticated, do not alter the essential expectational stability findings in the literature.Expectational stability, recursive learning, learnability of rational expectations equilibrium.
Learning the dynamics and time-recursive boundary detection of deformable objects
We propose a principled framework for recursively segmenting deformable objects across a sequence
of frames. We demonstrate the usefulness of this method on left ventricular segmentation across a cardiac
cycle. The approach involves a technique for learning the system dynamics together with methods of
particle-based smoothing as well as non-parametric belief propagation on a loopy graphical model capturing
the temporal periodicity of the heart. The dynamic system state is a low-dimensional representation
of the boundary, and the boundary estimation involves incorporating curve evolution into recursive state
estimation. By formulating the problem as one of state estimation, the segmentation at each particular
time is based not only on the data observed at that instant, but also on predictions based on past and future
boundary estimates. Although the paper focuses on left ventricle segmentation, the method generalizes
to temporally segmenting any deformable object
Single camera pose estimation using Bayesian filtering and Kinect motion priors
Traditional approaches to upper body pose estimation using monocular vision
rely on complex body models and a large variety of geometric constraints. We
argue that this is not ideal and somewhat inelegant as it results in large
processing burdens, and instead attempt to incorporate these constraints
through priors obtained directly from training data. A prior distribution
covering the probability of a human pose occurring is used to incorporate
likely human poses. This distribution is obtained offline, by fitting a
Gaussian mixture model to a large dataset of recorded human body poses, tracked
using a Kinect sensor. We combine this prior information with a random walk
transition model to obtain an upper body model, suitable for use within a
recursive Bayesian filtering framework. Our model can be viewed as a mixture of
discrete Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, in that states behave as random walks,
but drift towards a set of typically observed poses. This model is combined
with measurements of the human head and hand positions, using recursive
Bayesian estimation to incorporate temporal information. Measurements are
obtained using face detection and a simple skin colour hand detector, trained
using the detected face. The suggested model is designed with analytical
tractability in mind and we show that the pose tracking can be
Rao-Blackwellised using the mixture Kalman filter, allowing for computational
efficiency while still incorporating bio-mechanical properties of the upper
body. In addition, the use of the proposed upper body model allows reliable
three-dimensional pose estimates to be obtained indirectly for a number of
joints that are often difficult to detect using traditional object recognition
strategies. Comparisons with Kinect sensor results and the state of the art in
2D pose estimation highlight the efficacy of the proposed approach.Comment: 25 pages, Technical report, related to Burke and Lasenby, AMDO 2014
conference paper. Code sample: https://github.com/mgb45/SignerBodyPose Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJMTSo7-uF
Segmentation of the evolving left ventricle by learning the dynamics
We propose a method for recursive segmentation of the left ventricle
(LV) across a temporal sequence of magnetic resonance (MR) images.
The approach involves a technique for learning the LV boundary
dynamics together with a particle-based inference algorithm on
a loopy graphical model capturing the temporal periodicity of the
heart. The dynamic system state is a low-dimensional representation
of the boundary, and boundary estimation involves incorporating
curve evolution into state estimation. By formulating the problem
as one of state estimation, the segmentation at each particular
time is based not only on the data observed at that instant, but also
on predictions based on past and future boundary estimates. We assess
and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework
on a large data set of breath-hold cardiac MR image sequences
Probabilistic Methodology and Techniques for Artefact Conception and Development
The purpose of this paper is to make a state of the art on probabilistic methodology and techniques for artefact conception and development. It is the 8th deliverable of the BIBA (Bayesian Inspired Brain and Artefacts) project. We first present the incompletness problem as the central difficulty that both living creatures and artefacts have to face: how can they perceive, infer, decide and act efficiently with incomplete and uncertain knowledge?. We then introduce a generic probabilistic formalism called Bayesian Programming. This formalism is then used to review the main probabilistic methodology
and techniques. This review is organized in 3 parts: first the probabilistic models from Bayesian networks to Kalman filters and from sensor fusion to CAD systems, second the inference techniques and finally the learning and model acquisition and comparison methodologies. We conclude with the perspectives of the BIBA project as they rise from this state of the art
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