Local Cyber-Physical Attack for Masking Line Outage and Topology Attack in Smart Grid

Malicious attacks in the power system can eventually result in a large-scale cascade failure if not attended on time. These attacks, which are traditionally classified into \emph{physical} and \emph{cyber attacks}, can be avoided by using the latest and advanced detection mechanisms. However, a new threat called \emph{cyber-physical attacks} which jointly target both the physical and cyber layers of the system to interfere the operations of the power grid is more malicious as compared with the traditional attacks. In this paper, we propose a new cyber-physical attack strategy where the transmission line is first physically disconnected, and then the line-outage event is masked, such that the control center is misled into detecting as an obvious line outage at a different position in the local area of the power system. Therefore, the topology information in the control center is interfered by our attack. We also propose a novel procedure for selecting vulnerable lines, and analyze the observability of our proposed framework. Our proposed method can effectively and continuously deceive the control center into detecting fake line-outage positions, and thereby increase the chance of cascade failure because the attention is given to the fake outage. The simulation results validate the efficiency of our proposed attack strategy.Comment: accepted by IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1708.0320

Accelerating scientific codes by performance and accuracy modeling

Scientific software is often driven by multiple parameters that affect both accuracy and performance. Since finding the optimal configuration of these parameters is a highly complex task, it extremely common that the software is used suboptimally. In a typical scenario, accuracy requirements are imposed, and attained through suboptimal performance. In this paper, we present a methodology for the automatic selection of parameters for simulation codes, and a corresponding prototype tool. To be amenable to our methodology, the target code must expose the parameters affecting accuracy and performance, and there must be formulas available for error bounds and computational complexity of the underlying methods. As a case study, we consider the particle-particle particle-mesh method (PPPM) from the LAMMPS suite for molecular dynamics, and use our tool to identify configurations of the input parameters that achieve a given accuracy in the shortest execution time. When compared with the configurations suggested by expert users, the parameters selected by our tool yield reductions in the time-to-solution ranging between 10% and 60%. In other words, for the typical scenario where a fixed number of core-hours are granted and simulations of a fixed number of timesteps are to be run, usage of our tool may allow up to twice as many simulations. While we develop our ideas using LAMMPS as computational framework and use the PPPM method for dispersion as case study, the methodology is general and valid for a range of software tools and methods

Development of Neurofuzzy Architectures for Electricity Price Forecasting

In 20th century, many countries have liberalized their electricity market. This power markets liberalization has directed generation companies as well as wholesale buyers to undertake a greater intense risk exposure compared to the old centralized framework. In this framework, electricity price prediction has become crucial for any market player in their decision‐making process as well as strategic planning. In this study, a prototype asymmetric‐based neuro‐fuzzy network (AGFINN) architecture has been implemented for short‐term electricity prices forecasting for ISO New England market. AGFINN framework has been designed through two different defuzzification schemes. Fuzzy clustering has been explored as an initial step for defining the fuzzy rules while an asymmetric Gaussian membership function has been utilized in the fuzzification part of the model. Results related to the minimum and maximum electricity prices for ISO New England, emphasize the superiority of the proposed model over well‐established learning‐based models

Comparison of nonhomogeneous regression models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting

In weather forecasting, nonhomogeneous regression is used to statistically postprocess forecast ensembles in order to obtain calibrated predictive distributions. For wind speed forecasts, the regression model is given by a truncated normal distribution where location and spread are derived from the ensemble. This paper proposes two alternative approaches which utilize the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. A direct alternative to the truncated normal regression is to apply a predictive distribution from the GEV family, while a regime switching approach based on the median of the forecast ensemble incorporates both distributions. In a case study on daily maximum wind speed over Germany with the forecast ensemble from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, all three approaches provide calibrated and sharp predictive distributions with the regime switching approach showing the highest skill in the upper tail

Multiple-F0 estimation of piano sounds exploiting spectral structure and temporal evolution

This paper proposes a system for multiple fundamental frequency estimation of piano sounds using pitch candidate selection rules which employ spectral structure and temporal evolution. As a time-frequency representation, the Resonator Time-Frequency Image of the input signal is employed, a noise suppression model is used, and a spectral whitening procedure is performed. In addition, a spectral flux-based onset detector is employed in order to select the steady-state region of the produced sound. In the multiple-F0 estimation stage, tuning and inharmonicity parameters are extracted and a pitch salience function is proposed. Pitch presence tests are performed utilizing information from the spectral structure of pitch candidates, aiming to suppress errors occurring at multiples and sub-multiples of the true pitches. A novel feature for the estimation of harmonically related pitches is proposed, based on the common amplitude modulation assumption. Experiments are performed on the MAPS database using 8784 piano samples of classical, jazz, and random chords with polyphony levels between 1 and 6. The proposed system is computationally inexpensive, being able to perform multiple-F0 estimation experiments in realtime. Experimental results indicate that the proposed system outperforms state-of-the-art approaches for the aforementioned task in a statistically significant manner. Index Terms: multiple-F0 estimation, resonator timefrequency image, common amplitude modulatio