Understanding the Complexity of Lifted Inference and Asymmetric Weighted Model Counting

In this paper we study lifted inference for the Weighted First-Order Model Counting problem (WFOMC), which counts the assignments that satisfy a given sentence in first-order logic (FOL); it has applications in Statistical Relational Learning (SRL) and Probabilistic Databases (PDB). We present several results. First, we describe a lifted inference algorithm that generalizes prior approaches in SRL and PDB. Second, we provide a novel dichotomy result for a non-trivial fragment of FO CNF sentences, showing that for each sentence the WFOMC problem is either in PTIME or #P-hard in the size of the input domain; we prove that, in the first case our algorithm solves the WFOMC problem in PTIME, and in the second case it fails. Third, we present several properties of the algorithm. Finally, we discuss limitations of lifted inference for symmetric probabilistic databases (where the weights of ground literals depend only on the relation name, and not on the constants of the domain), and prove the impossibility of a dichotomy result for the complexity of probabilistic inference for the entire language FOL

Algorithmic Analysis of Qualitative and Quantitative Termination Problems for Affine Probabilistic Programs

In this paper, we consider termination of probabilistic programs with real-valued variables. The questions concerned are: 1. qualitative ones that ask (i) whether the program terminates with probability 1 (almost-sure termination) and (ii) whether the expected termination time is finite (finite termination); 2. quantitative ones that ask (i) to approximate the expected termination time (expectation problem) and (ii) to compute a bound B such that the probability to terminate after B steps decreases exponentially (concentration problem). To solve these questions, we utilize the notion of ranking supermartingales which is a powerful approach for proving termination of probabilistic programs. In detail, we focus on algorithmic synthesis of linear ranking-supermartingales over affine probabilistic programs (APP's) with both angelic and demonic non-determinism. An important subclass of APP's is LRAPP which is defined as the class of all APP's over which a linear ranking-supermartingale exists. Our main contributions are as follows. Firstly, we show that the membership problem of LRAPP (i) can be decided in polynomial time for APP's with at most demonic non-determinism, and (ii) is NP-hard and in PSPACE for APP's with angelic non-determinism; moreover, the NP-hardness result holds already for APP's without probability and demonic non-determinism. Secondly, we show that the concentration problem over LRAPP can be solved in the same complexity as for the membership problem of LRAPP. Finally, we show that the expectation problem over LRAPP can be solved in 2EXPTIME and is PSPACE-hard even for APP's without probability and non-determinism (i.e., deterministic programs). Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach to answer the qualitative and quantitative questions over APP's with at most demonic non-determinism.Comment: 24 pages, full version to the conference paper on POPL 201

Credimus

We believe that economic design and computational complexity---while already important to each other---should become even more important to each other with each passing year. But for that to happen, experts in on the one hand such areas as social choice, economics, and political science and on the other hand computational complexity will have to better understand each other's worldviews. This article, written by two complexity theorists who also work in computational social choice theory, focuses on one direction of that process by presenting a brief overview of how most computational complexity theorists view the world. Although our immediate motivation is to make the lens through which complexity theorists see the world be better understood by those in the social sciences, we also feel that even within computer science it is very important for nontheoreticians to understand how theoreticians think, just as it is equally important within computer science for theoreticians to understand how nontheoreticians think

Algorithms and Hardness Results for Computing Cores of Markov Chains

Given a Markov chain M = (V, v_0, δ), with state space V and a starting state v_0, and a probability threshold ε, an ε-core is a subset C of states that is left with probability at most ε. More formally, C ⊆ V is an ε-core, iff ℙ[reach (V\C)] ≤ ε. Cores have been applied in a wide variety of verification problems over Markov chains, Markov decision processes, and probabilistic programs, as a means of discarding uninteresting and low-probability parts of a probabilistic system and instead being able to focus on the states that are likely to be encountered in a real-world run. In this work, we focus on the problem of computing a minimal ε-core in a Markov chain. Our contributions include both negative and positive results: (i) We show that the decision problem on the existence of an ε-core of a given size is NP-complete. This solves an open problem posed in [Jan Kretínský and Tobias Meggendorfer, 2020]. We additionally show that the problem remains NP-complete even when limited to acyclic Markov chains with bounded maximal vertex degree; (ii) We provide a polynomial time algorithm for computing a minimal ε-core on Markov chains over control-flow graphs of structured programs. A straightforward combination of our algorithm with standard branch prediction techniques allows one to apply the idea of cores to find a subset of program lines that are left with low probability and then focus any desired static analysis on this core subset

Strong Invariants Are Hard: On the Hardness of Strongest Polynomial Invariants for (Probabilistic) Programs

We show that computing the strongest polynomial invariant for single-path loops with polynomial assignments is at least as hard as the Skolem problem, a famous problem whose decidability has been open for almost a century. While the strongest polynomial invariants are computable for affine loops, for polynomial loops the problem remained wide open. As an intermediate result of independent interest, we prove that reachability for discrete polynomial dynamical systems is Skolem-hard as well. Furthermore, we generalize the notion of invariant ideals and introduce moment invariant ideals for probabilistic programs. With this tool, we further show that the strongest polynomial moment invariant is (i) uncomputable, for probabilistic loops with branching statements, and (ii) Skolem-hard to compute for polynomial probabilistic loops without branching statements. Finally, we identify a class of probabilistic loops for which the strongest polynomial moment invariant is computable and provide an algorithm for it

Computing the partition function of the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model is hard on average

We establish the average-case hardness of the algorithmic problem of exact computation of the partition function associated with the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model of spin glasses with Gaussian couplings and random external field. In particular, we establish that unless $P= \#P$, there does not exist a polynomial-time algorithm to exactly compute the partition function on average. This is done by showing that if there exists a polynomial time algorithm, which exactly computes the partition function for inverse polynomial fraction ($1/n^{O(1)}$) of all inputs, then there is a polynomial time algorithm, which exactly computes the partition function for all inputs, with high probability, yielding $P=\#P$. The computational model that we adopt is {\em finite-precision arithmetic}, where the algorithmic inputs are truncated first to a certain level $N$ of digital precision. The ingredients of our proof include the random and downward self-reducibility of the partition function with random external field; an argument of Cai et al. \cite{cai1999hardness} for establishing the average-case hardness of computing the permanent of a matrix; a list-decoding algorithm of Sudan \cite{sudan1996maximum}, for reconstructing polynomials intersecting a given list of numbers at sufficiently many points; and near-uniformity of the log-normal distribution, modulo a large prime $p$. To the best of our knowledge, our result is the first one establishing a provable hardness of a model arising in the field of spin glasses. Furthermore, we extend our result to the same problem under a different {\em real-valued} computational model, e.g. using a Blum-Shub-Smale machine \cite{blum1988theory} operating over real-valued inputs.Comment: 31 page