1,083 research outputs found
Sampling and Inference for Beta Neutral-to-the-Left Models of Sparse Networks
Empirical evidence suggests that heavy-tailed degree distributions occurring
in many real networks are well-approximated by power laws with exponents
that may take values either less than and greater than two. Models based on
various forms of exchangeability are able to capture power laws with , and admit tractable inference algorithms; we draw on previous results to
show that cannot be generated by the forms of exchangeability used
in existing random graph models. Preferential attachment models generate power
law exponents greater than two, but have been of limited use as statistical
models due to the inherent difficulty of performing inference in
non-exchangeable models. Motivated by this gap, we design and implement
inference algorithms for a recently proposed class of models that generates
of all possible values. We show that although they are not exchangeable,
these models have probabilistic structure amenable to inference. Our methods
make a large class of previously intractable models useful for statistical
inference.Comment: Accepted for publication in the proceedings of Conference on
Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) 201
Equation-free modeling of evolving diseases: Coarse-grained computations with individual-based models
We demonstrate how direct simulation of stochastic, individual-based models
can be combined with continuum numerical analysis techniques to study the
dynamics of evolving diseases. % Sidestepping the necessity of obtaining
explicit population-level models, the approach analyzes the (unavailable in
closed form) `coarse' macroscopic equations, estimating the necessary
quantities through appropriately initialized, short `bursts' of
individual-based dynamic simulation. % We illustrate this approach by analyzing
a stochastic and discrete model for the evolution of disease agents caused by
point mutations within individual hosts. % Building up from classical SIR and
SIRS models, our example uses a one-dimensional lattice for variant space, and
assumes a finite number of individuals. % Macroscopic computational tasks
enabled through this approach include stationary state computation, coarse
projective integration, parametric continuation and stability analysis.Comment: 16 pages, 8 figure
Efficient computational strategies for doubly intractable problems with applications to Bayesian social networks
Powerful ideas recently appeared in the literature are adjusted and combined
to design improved samplers for Bayesian exponential random graph models.
Different forms of adaptive Metropolis-Hastings proposals (vertical, horizontal
and rectangular) are tested and combined with the Delayed rejection (DR)
strategy with the aim of reducing the variance of the resulting Markov chain
Monte Carlo estimators for a given computational time. In the examples treated
in this paper the best combination, namely horizontal adaptation with delayed
rejection, leads to a variance reduction that varies between 92% and 144%
relative to the adaptive direction sampling approximate exchange algorithm of
Caimo and Friel (2011). These results correspond to an increased performance
which varies from 10% to 94% if we take simulation time into account. The
highest improvements are obtained when highly correlated posterior
distributions are considered.Comment: 23 pages, 8 figures. Accepted to appear in Statistics and Computin
High-Dimensional Gaussian Graphical Model Selection: Walk Summability and Local Separation Criterion
We consider the problem of high-dimensional Gaussian graphical model
selection. We identify a set of graphs for which an efficient estimation
algorithm exists, and this algorithm is based on thresholding of empirical
conditional covariances. Under a set of transparent conditions, we establish
structural consistency (or sparsistency) for the proposed algorithm, when the
number of samples n=omega(J_{min}^{-2} log p), where p is the number of
variables and J_{min} is the minimum (absolute) edge potential of the graphical
model. The sufficient conditions for sparsistency are based on the notion of
walk-summability of the model and the presence of sparse local vertex
separators in the underlying graph. We also derive novel non-asymptotic
necessary conditions on the number of samples required for sparsistency
Global consensus Monte Carlo
To conduct Bayesian inference with large data sets, it is often convenient or
necessary to distribute the data across multiple machines. We consider a
likelihood function expressed as a product of terms, each associated with a
subset of the data. Inspired by global variable consensus optimisation, we
introduce an instrumental hierarchical model associating auxiliary statistical
parameters with each term, which are conditionally independent given the
top-level parameters. One of these top-level parameters controls the
unconditional strength of association between the auxiliary parameters. This
model leads to a distributed MCMC algorithm on an extended state space yielding
approximations of posterior expectations. A trade-off between computational
tractability and fidelity to the original model can be controlled by changing
the association strength in the instrumental model. We further propose the use
of a SMC sampler with a sequence of association strengths, allowing both the
automatic determination of appropriate strengths and for a bias correction
technique to be applied. In contrast to similar distributed Monte Carlo
algorithms, this approach requires few distributional assumptions. The
performance of the algorithms is illustrated with a number of simulated
examples
- …