Supply chain uncertainty:a review and theoretical foundation for future research

Supply-chain uncertainty is an issue with which every practising manager wrestles, deriving from the increasing complexity of global supply networks. Taking a broad view of supply-chain uncertainty (incorporating supply-chain risk), this paper seeks to review the literature in this area and develop a theoretical foundation for future research. The literature review identifies a comprehensive list of 14 sources of uncertainty, including those that have received much research attention, such as the bullwhip effect, and those more recently described, such as parallel interaction. Approaches to managing these sources of uncertainty are classified into: 10 approaches that seek to reduce uncertainty at its source; and, 11 approaches that seek to cope with it, thereby minimising its impact on performance. Manufacturing strategy theory, including the concepts of alignment and contingency, is then used to develop a model of supply-chain uncertainty, which is populated using the literature review to show alignment between uncertainty sources and management strategies. Future research proposed includes more empirical research in order to further investigate: which uncertainties occur in particular industrial contexts; the impact of appropriate sources/management strategy alignment on performance; and the complex interplay between management strategies and multiple sources of uncertainty (positive or negative)

Strategies to Minimize the Impact of Supply Chain Risk on Business Performance

The exposure of companies to turbulence, uncertainty, and vulnerability in their supply chain results in supply chain disruption with an estimate cost of $10 million for each supply chain disruption. The purpose of this case study was to explore the strategies supply chain managers use to mitigate supply chain disruption on business performance in a pharmaceutical company in Maryland. Contingency theory of fit formed the conceptual framework for this study. Participant perceptions were elicited in interviews with 11 supply chain managers regarding strategies to mitigate risks associated with supply chain disruptions. Data from interviews and supporting documents were processed and analyzed using data source triangulation to discern emergent themes. Three main themes emerged: (a) supply chain design, planning, and forecasting; (b) flexible and multiple supplier base; and (c) resource allocation and demand management. The implications for positive social change include the potential of reducing supply chain risk, which could lead to lower prices of products for consumers, increased stakeholder satisfaction, and a higher standard of living

Identifying Risks and Mitigating Disruptions in the Automotive Supply Chain

Firms are exposed to a variety of low-probability, high-impact risks that can disrupt their operations and supply chains. These risks are difficult to predict and quantify; therefore, they are difficult to manage. As a result, managers may suboptimally deploy countermeasures, leaving their firms exposed to some risks, while wasting resources to mitigate other risks that would not cause significant damage. In a three-year research engagement with Ford Motor Company, we addressed this practical need by developing a novel risk-exposure model that assesses the impact of a disruption originating anywhere in a firm’s supply chain. Our approach defers the need for a company to estimate the probability associated with any specific disruption risk until after it has learned the effect such a disruption will have on its operations. As a result, the company can make more informed decisions about where to focus its limited risk-management resources. We demonstrate how Ford applied this model to identify previously unrecognized risk exposures, evaluate predisruption risk-mitigation actions, and develop optimal postdisruption contingency plans, including circumstances in which the duration of the disruption is unknown.Ford-MIT Allianc

Strategies for Preventing and Mitigating the Effects of Agro-food Supply Chain Disruptions

Supply chain disruptions are detrimental to the performance of companies due to the associated loss of profitability and reduced sustainability. In 2016, organizations lost at least $1.2 million in a single supply chain disruption. Guided by the contingency theory of fit, the purpose of this exploratory multiple case study was to explore the strategies agribusiness managers use to prevent and mitigate the effects of disruptions in the agro-food supply chains. A total of 5 purposefully-selected agribusiness managers from Harare, Zimbabwe participated in semistructured interviews. Participants were senior agribusiness managers who implemented successful strategies for preventing and mitigating the effects of disruptions in agro-food supply chains. Three themes emerged from the thematic analysis of interview data and review of organizational documents: collaboration among supply chain partners, business continuity management, and the use of a multiple supplier base. Agribusiness managers must first understand the sources of disruption risk, assess the impact of the risk, and then select an appropriate strategy based on the level of uncertainty and risk. By managing the risks effectively, managers can improve the performance and competitiveness of their businesses. The implications for positive social change may include a reduction in supply chain costs, provision of better services and products to consumers, and lower prices of agro-food products to consumers which could lead to an improvement in the lives of consumers

Evaluation of control strategies for managing supply chain risks using Bayesian belief networks

Supply chains have become complex and vulnerable and therefore, researchers are developing effective techniques in order to capture the complex structure of the supply network and interdependency between supply chain risks. Researchers have recently started using Bayesian Belief Networks for modelling supply chain risks. However, these models are still focused on limited domains of supply chain risk management like supplier selection, supplier performance evaluation and ranking. We have developed a comprehensive risk management process using Bayesian networks that captures all three stages of risk management including risk identification, risk assessment and risk evaluation. Our proposed new risk measures and evaluation scheme of different combinations of control strategies are considered as an important contribution to the literature. We have modelled supply network as a Bayesian Belief Network incorporating the supply network configuration, probabilistic interdependency between risks, resulting losses, risk mitigation control strategies and associated costs. An illustrative example is presented and three different models are solved corresponding to different risk attitudes of the decision maker. Based on our results, it is not always viable to implement control strategy at the most important risk factor because of the consideration of mitigation cost, relative loss and probabilistic interdependency between connected risk factors

National Culture\u27s Impact on Effectiveness of Supply Chain Disruption Management

The purpose of this research is to understand the national cultural antecedents that may help explain differences in supply chain disruptions mitigation abilities of companies from different countries. An analysis of survey data on disruption planning and response collected from various organizations worldwide was performed using weighted least square regression and factor analysis. We find that culture influences disruption planning and response. Statistical findings suggest that differences in disruption planning and response abilities between companies from different countries could be partly attributed to national culture. All five Hofstede’s dimensions of national culture, i.e., Power Distance, Individualism, Masculinity, Uncertainty Avoidance, and Long-term Orientation were shown to have a significant positive effect on disruption planning and response. National cultural dimensions and economic status of a country could be effectively used to predict disruption planning and response abilities of companies in various countries. Managers could benefit from our research as it could help them assess disruptions mitigation abilities of their partners located in other countries. Increasing international trade and globalization of supply chains accentuate the importance of our research

Agribusiness supply chain risk management: A review of quantitative decision models

Supply chain risk management is a large and growing field of research. However, within this field, mathematical models for agricultural products have received relatively little attention. This is somewhat surprising as risk management is even more important for agricultural supply chains due to challenges associated with seasonality, supply spikes, long supply lead-times, and perishability. This paper carries out a thorough review of the relatively limited literature on quantitative risk management models for agricultural supply chains. Specifically, we identify robustness and resilience as two key techniques for managing risk. Since these terms are not used consistently in the literature, we propose clear definitions and metrics for these terms; we then use these definitions to classify the agricultural supply chain risk management literature. Implications are given for both practice and future research on agricultural supply chain risk management

Disruptive Risk Management: What makes supply chains resilient to low probability/ high impact disruptions to the inbound and outbound aspects of the supply chain? A Systematic Literature Review

The business community has found itself in the predicament of first understanding and then knowing how to deal with the risk and disruptions to which it is exposed. Risk management is a well informed field in other disciplines. Supply chain risk management however, still needs to be understood and adequately practised, but seemingly, of even more urgency is disruption risk management, which as a new hot topic, is still evolving in both the academic and the practical fields. To compound the problem is the fact that not all practitioners believe that this risk actually exists and that they need to plan for it. If they believe that it exists, they still are unsure as to how to prepare for it and many still need to be convinced that money needs to be put aside to plan for and to mitigate against disruptive events. Disruptive events such as acts of nature, accidents, terrorist and non-terrorist activities can cause a breakdown in the supply chain and thus very quickly cripple the supply chain, possibly causing disruptions to the transportation, communication and information technology systems. This is indeed a critical situation given the fact that many companies have chosen efficiency over effectiveness by employing such strategies of JIT, outsourcing and single sourcing strategies (Norrman, Jansson, 2004; CLSCM 2003, Christopher 2005, Tang 2006). In effect what they have done is exposed their supply chains making them very vulnerable to disruptive events. This report then, seeks to answer what makes a resilient supply chain. To this end the author has used the systematic review process in an attempt to use evidence-based methods of scientific research (Tranfield et al., 2003) to identify, select and critically appraise relevant research. The process is so designed that the information, once discovered and developed can then be discussed and synthesized. The broad fields of literature will include Supply Chain Risk, Vulnerability, Resilience, Risk Management and Disruption Risk Management. Findings thus far indicate that resilient supply chains have seemed to evolve from business continuity planning and supply chain risk management. Additionally, they are hinged on creating a flexible and agile supply chain, having enhanced communication within the network and establishing the right company culture. Firstly, the report seeks to situate the research in the current body of knowledge. It then describes in detail the methodology employed for the research and analysis of the information. The descriptive and thematic findings are presented, followed by their synthesis, discussion and conclusion. One of the main purposes and benefits of the systematic review is that it sets the stage to allow an issue to evolve, which can then be used to frame a PhD question. To this end, the conclusion includes PhD questions that the author has found of interest and considers as good, sound and feasible for further research and analysis

Supply Chain Resilience in a Pandemic: The Need for Revised Contingency Planning

Organizations have worked over the years to develop efficiencies to their supply chains, which includes efforts to reduce waste, lower costs, consolidate suppliers and distributors, better manage costs of goods sold and inventory, develop efficiencies in packaging, storage, and shipping of product, as well as utilizing digital analytics to manage consumer choices and demands. These are all by-products of world-class manufacturing which have promoted systematic organizational and supply chain efficiencies. However, under economic shocks that are sustained over longer periods of time (e.g., Covid-19 Pandemic) and that affect supply chains from a variety of disruptions, a supply chain that is not prepared or adaptable may be broken or at a minimum weigh down the organization. Therefore, the ability to manage and control risk is a key aspect of effective supply chain management. However, the literature on pandemic risk mitigation is nascent. Thus, this paper offers a review of the extant literature, provides a strategic mitigation model covering five dimensions: leadership, preparedness, digitalization, resilience, and pivoting. These dimensions are designed to help organizations in the future to be more adaptive to events such as global pandemics and other large-scale disruptions and discuss implications for future research

On the Resilience of Supply Chain Design under Disruptions

It is not possible to design a system in which there are no failures. To make the system more efficient, it is important to design the system in such a way that once the failure has occurred, the system can be restored to its full functionality in a short span of time. For a system to perform this task, we need to make the system resilient . The basic idea of resilience is the ability to recover from an occurred failure in a system so that the system is performing at its best level. Resilience can be applied to all types of systems. This study aims at enhancing the resiliency of Supply Chains in the event of disruption at various levels. Supply Chains are one of the most important aspects for the growth and welfare of any business. Supply chain, just like any other system, is prone to disruption. A supply chain disruption is an unanticipated event that slows down the normal flow or even stops the normal flow of materials with hampering effects to the members within the supply chain. For enhancing the resiliency, various tools such as contingency planning, key indicators identification, and simulation have been implemented through the aggregate dimensions. The simulation tool is incredibly helpful for designing different scenarios in the highly complex supply chains. This study also sheds light on how the disruptions are transmitted through the various members of the supply chain and through different levels. The contingency planning plays an important role in the time of disruption by providing alternate sourcing ideology so that the supply chain does not come at a halt and costs the firm losses in terms of money and time