Uniform Random Sampling of Traces in Very Large Models

This paper presents some first results on how to perform uniform random walks (where every trace has the same probability to occur) in very large models. The models considered here are described in a succinct way as a set of communicating reactive modules. The method relies upon techniques for counting and drawing uniformly at random words in regular languages. Each module is considered as an automaton defining such a language. It is shown how it is possible to combine local uniform drawings of traces, and to obtain some global uniform random sampling, without construction of the global model

Estimating Graphlet Statistics via Lifting

Exploratory analysis over network data is often limited by the ability to efficiently calculate graph statistics, which can provide a model-free understanding of the macroscopic properties of a network. We introduce a framework for estimating the graphlet count---the number of occurrences of a small subgraph motif (e.g. a wedge or a triangle) in the network. For massive graphs, where accessing the whole graph is not possible, the only viable algorithms are those that make a limited number of vertex neighborhood queries. We introduce a Monte Carlo sampling technique for graphlet counts, called {\em Lifting}, which can simultaneously sample all graphlets of size up to $k$ vertices for arbitrary $k$. This is the first graphlet sampling method that can provably sample every graphlet with positive probability and can sample graphlets of arbitrary size $k$. We outline variants of lifted graphlet counts, including the ordered, unordered, and shotgun estimators, random walk starts, and parallel vertex starts. We prove that our graphlet count updates are unbiased for the true graphlet count and have a controlled variance for all graphlets. We compare the experimental performance of lifted graphlet counts to the state-of-the art graphlet sampling procedures: Waddling and the pairwise subgraph random walk

Discriminative Link Prediction using Local Links, Node Features and Community Structure

A link prediction (LP) algorithm is given a graph, and has to rank, for each node, other nodes that are candidates for new linkage. LP is strongly motivated by social search and recommendation applications. LP techniques often focus on global properties (graph conductance, hitting or commute times, Katz score) or local properties (Adamic-Adar and many variations, or node feature vectors), but rarely combine these signals. Furthermore, neither of these extremes exploit link densities at the intermediate level of communities. In this paper we describe a discriminative LP algorithm that exploits two new signals. First, a co-clustering algorithm provides community level link density estimates, which are used to qualify observed links with a surprise value. Second, links in the immediate neighborhood of the link to be predicted are not interpreted at face value, but through a local model of node feature similarities. These signals are combined into a discriminative link predictor. We evaluate the new predictor using five diverse data sets that are standard in the literature. We report on significant accuracy boosts compared to standard LP methods (including Adamic-Adar and random walk). Apart from the new predictor, another contribution is a rigorous protocol for benchmarking and reporting LP algorithms, which reveals the regions of strengths and weaknesses of all the predictors studied here, and establishes the new proposal as the most robust.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure

The Computational Complexity of Estimating Convergence Time

An important problem in the implementation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms is to determine the convergence time, or the number of iterations before the chain is close to stationarity. For many Markov chains used in practice this time is not known. Even in cases where the convergence time is known to be polynomial, the theoretical bounds are often too crude to be practical. Thus, practitioners like to carry out some form of statistical analysis in order to assess convergence. This has led to the development of a number of methods known as convergence diagnostics which attempt to diagnose whether the Markov chain is far from stationarity. We study the problem of testing convergence in the following settings and prove that the problem is hard in a computational sense: Given a Markov chain that mixes rapidly, it is hard for Statistical Zero Knowledge (SZK-hard) to distinguish whether starting from a given state, the chain is close to stationarity by time t or far from stationarity at time ct for a constant c. We show the problem is in AM intersect coAM. Second, given a Markov chain that mixes rapidly it is coNP-hard to distinguish whether it is close to stationarity by time t or far from stationarity at time ct for a constant c. The problem is in coAM. Finally, it is PSPACE-complete to distinguish whether the Markov chain is close to stationarity by time t or far from being mixed at time ct for c at least 1

Broad Histogram Method for Continuous Systems: the XY-Model

We propose a way of implementing the Broad Histogram Monte Carlo method to systems with continuous degrees of freedom, and we apply these ideas to investigate the three-dimensional XY-model with periodic boundary conditions. We have found an excellent agreement between our method and traditional Metropolis results for the energy, the magnetization, the specific heat and the magnetic susceptibility on a very large temperature range. For the calculation of these quantities in the temperature range 0.7<T<4.7 our method took less CPU time than the Metropolis simulations for 16 temperature points in that temperature range. Furthermore, it calculates the whole temperature range 1.2<T<4.7 using only 2.2 times more computer effort than the Histogram Monte Carlo method for the range 2.1<T<2.2. Our way of treatment is general, it can also be applied to other systems with continuous degrees of freedom.Comment: 23 pages, 10 Postscript figures, to be published in Int. J. Mod. Phys.

Cost-efficient vaccination protocols for network epidemiology

We investigate methods to vaccinate contact networks -- i.e. removing nodes in such a way that disease spreading is hindered as much as possible -- with respect to their cost-efficiency. Any real implementation of such protocols would come with costs related both to the vaccination itself, and gathering of information about the network. Disregarding this, we argue, would lead to erroneous evaluation of vaccination protocols. We use the susceptible-infected-recovered model -- the generic model for diseases making patients immune upon recovery -- as our disease-spreading scenario, and analyze outbreaks on both empirical and model networks. For different relative costs, different protocols dominate. For high vaccination costs and low costs of gathering information, the so-called acquaintance vaccination is the most cost efficient. For other parameter values, protocols designed for query-efficient identification of the network's largest degrees are most efficient