Investment decisions in manufacturing: Assessing the effects of real oil prices and their uncertainty

We investigate the effects of real oil prices and their uncertainty on the investment decision. Making use of plant-level data, we estimate dynamic, discrete choice models that allow modeling investment inaction, under different assumptions related to initial conditions and unobserved heterogeneity. We find that increases in real oil price changes and in real oil price uncertainty significantly reduce the likelihood of investment action – in line with the predictions of irreversible investment theory. We also document that the investment decisions exhibit strong pure state dependence and are also significantly affected by initial conditions

Network dependence in multi-indexed data on international trade flows

Faced with the problem that conventional multidimensional fixed effects models only focus on unobserved heterogeneity, but ignore any potential cross-sectional dependence due to network interactions, we introduce a model of trade flows between countries over time that allows for network dependence in flows, based on sociocultural connectivity structures. We show that conventional multidimensional fixed effects model specifications exhibit cross-sectional dependence between countries that should be modeled to avoid simultaneity bias. Given that the source of network interaction is unknown, we propose a panel gravity model that examines multiplenetwork interaction structures, using Bayesian model probabilities to determine those most consistent with the sample data. This is accomplished with the use of computationally efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation methods that produce a Monte Carlo integration estimate of the log-marginal likelihood that can be used for model comparison. Application of the model to a panel of trade flows points to network spillover effects, suggesting the presence of network dependence and biased estimates from conventional trade flow specifications. The most important sources of network dependence were found to be membership in trade organizations, historical colonial ties, common currency, and spatial proximity of countries.Series: Working Papers in Regional Scienc

Conventional versus network dependence panel data gravity model specifications

Past focus in the panel gravity literature has been on multidimensional fixed effects specifications in an effort to accommodate heterogeneity. After introducing conventional multidimensional fixed effects, we find evidence of cross-sectional dependence in flows. We propose a simultaneous dependence gravity model that allows for network dependence in flows, along with computationally efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation methods that produce a Monte Carlo integration estimate of log-marginal likelihood useful for model comparison. Application of the model to a panel of trade flows points to network spillover effects, suggesting the presence of network dependence and biased estimates from conventional trade flow specifications. The most important sources of network dependence were found to be membership in trade organizations, historical colonial ties, common currency and spatial proximity of countries.Series: Working Papers in Regional Scienc

A new approach to causality and economic growth.

This paper examines the issue of causality in cross-sectional empirical models of economic growth. Using an approach to determining causal structures based on tests for conditional independence in sets of variables, we uncover alternative causal structures that are consistent with the correlation pattern of the variables in the data. We use these methods to develop alternative causal empirical models of economic growth. One of our consistent findings is that we can rule out the possibility that equipment investment causes growth. Our search procedure leads naturally to a structural model with latent variables which we then estimate. The results of our estimation are broadly consistent with traditional models of economic growth augmented for human capital.Economic development ; Econometric models

Is the Relationship Between Aid and Economic Growth Nonlinear?

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between foreign aid and growth using recently developed sample splitting methods that allow us to uncover evidence for the existence of heterogeneity and nonlinearity simultaneously. We also implement a new methodology that allows us to deal with model uncertainty in the context of these methods. We find some evidence that aid may have heterogeneous effects on growth across two growth regimes defined by ethnic fractionalization. In particular, countries that belong to a growth regime characterized by levels of ethnic fractionalization above a threshold value experience a negative partial relationship between aid and growth, while those in the regime with ethnic fractionalization below the threshold experience no growth effects from aid at all. Nevertheless, there exists substantial model uncertainty so that attempts to pin down the typology of these growth regimes as being decisively characterized by ethnic fractionalization remain inconclusive. When we account for model uncertainty, we find no evidence to suggest that the relationship between aid and growth is nonlinear. Overall, our results suggest that the partial effect of aid on growth is very likely to be negative although we cannot reject the hypothesis that aid has no effect on growth. In this sense, our findings suggest that aid is potentially counterproductive to growth with outcomes not meeting the expectations of donors.

Decimation of the Dyson-Ising Ferromagnet

We study the decimation to a sublattice of half the sites, of the one-dimensional Dyson-Ising ferromagnet with slowly decaying long-range pair interactions of the form $\frac{1}{{|i-j|}^{\alpha}}$, in the phase transition region (1< $\alpha \leq$ 2, and low temperature). We prove non-Gibbsianness of the decimated measure at low enough temperatures by exhibiting a point of essential discontinuity for the finite-volume conditional probabilities of decimated Gibbs measures. Thus result complements previous work proving conservation of Gibbsianness for fastly decaying potentials ($\alpha$ > 2) and provides an example of a "standard" non-Gibbsian result in one dimension, in the vein of similar resuts in higher dimensions for short-range models. We also discuss how these measures could fit within a generalized (almost vs. weak) Gibbsian framework. Moreover we comment on the possibility of similar results for some other transformations.Comment: 18 pages, some corrections and references added, to appear in Stoch.Proc.App

Is the relationship between aid and economic growth nonlinear?:

"There have been intensive debates on the role of aid in promoting economic development in developing countries by using cross-country analyses. Cross-country regression assuming linear relationship between aid and growth and without taking into heterogeneity of countries would produce biased estimates. To correct this, in this paper we investigate the relationship between foreign aid and growth using recently developed sample splitting methods that allow us to simultaneously uncover evidence for the existence of heterogeneity and nonlinearity. We also address model uncertainty in the context of these methods. We find some evidence that aid may have heterogeneous effects on growth across two growth regimes defined by ethnolinguistic fractionalization. However, when we account for model uncertainty, we find no evidence to suggest that the relationship between aid and growth is nonlinear. In fact, our results suggest that the partial effect of aid on growth is likely to be weakly negative. In this sense, our findings suggest that aid is potentially counterproductive to growth with outcomes not meeting the expectations of donors... The methodology developed in this paper can be used to identify typologies on other outcome variables, such as those included in the Millennium Development Goals." from Authors' AbstractEconomic development, Cross-country studies, Foreign aid, Public investment, Nonlinearity, Typology,

Convergence across countries and regions: theory and empirics

This paper surveys the recent literature on convergence across countries and regions. I discuss the main convergence and divergence mechanisms identified in the literature and develop a simple model that illustrates their implications for income dynamics. I then review the existing empirical evidence and discuss its theoretical implications. Early optimism concerning the ability of a human capital-augmented neoclassical model to explain productivity differences across economies has been questioned on the basis of more recent contributions that make use of panel data techniques and obtain theoretically implausible results. Some recent research in this area tries to reconcile these findings with sensible theoretical models by exploring the role of alternative convergence mechanisms and the possible shortcomings of panel data techniques for convergence analysis.convergence, growth

Understanding the adoption of systemic innovations in smallholder agriculture: the System of Rice Intensification (SRI) in Timor Leste

Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management,