On the Approximation Quality of Markov State Models

We consider a continuous-time Markov process on a large continuous or discrete state space. The process is assumed to have strong enough ergodicity properties and to exhibit a number of metastable sets. Markov state models (MSMs) are designed to represent the effective dynamics of such a process by a Markov chain that jumps between the metastable sets with the transition rates of the original process. MSMs have been used for a number of applications, including molecular dynamics, for more than a decade. Their approximation quality, however, has not yet been fully understood. In particular, it would be desirable to have a sharp error bound for the difference in propagation of probability densities between the MSM and the original process on long timescales. Here, we provide such a bound for a rather general class of Markov processes ranging from diffusions in energy landscapes to Markov jump processes on large discrete spaces. Furthermore, we discuss how this result provides formal support or shows the limitations of algorithmic strategies that have been found to be useful for the construction of MSMs. Our findings are illustrated by numerical experiments

Kinetic distance and kinetic maps from molecular dynamics simulation

Characterizing macromolecular kinetics from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations requires a distance metric that can distinguish slowly-interconverting states. Here we build upon diffusion map theory and define a kinetic distance for irreducible Markov processes that quantifies how slowly molecular conformations interconvert. The kinetic distance can be computed given a model that approximates the eigenvalues and eigenvectors (reaction coordinates) of the MD Markov operator. Here we employ the time-lagged independent component analysis (TICA). The TICA components can be scaled to provide a kinetic map in which the Euclidean distance corresponds to the kinetic distance. As a result, the question of how many TICA dimensions should be kept in a dimensionality reduction approach becomes obsolete, and one parameter less needs to be specified in the kinetic model construction. We demonstrate the approach using TICA and Markov state model (MSM) analyses for illustrative models, protein conformation dynamics in bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor and protein-inhibitor association in trypsin and benzamidine

A weak characterization of slow variables in stochastic dynamical systems

We present a novel characterization of slow variables for continuous Markov processes that provably preserve the slow timescales. These slow variables are known as reaction coordinates in molecular dynamical applications, where they play a key role in system analysis and coarse graining. The defining characteristics of these slow variables is that they parametrize a so-called transition manifold, a low-dimensional manifold in a certain density function space that emerges with progressive equilibration of the system's fast variables. The existence of said manifold was previously predicted for certain classes of metastable and slow-fast systems. However, in the original work, the existence of the manifold hinges on the pointwise convergence of the system's transition density functions towards it. We show in this work that a convergence in average with respect to the system's stationary measure is sufficient to yield reaction coordinates with the same key qualities. This allows one to accurately predict the timescale preservation in systems where the old theory is not applicable or would give overly pessimistic results. Moreover, the new characterization is still constructive, in that it allows for the algorithmic identification of a good slow variable. The improved characterization, the error prediction and the variable construction are demonstrated by a small metastable system

Two mathematical tools to analyze metastable stochastic processes

We present how entropy estimates and logarithmic Sobolev inequalities on the one hand, and the notion of quasi-stationary distribution on the other hand, are useful tools to analyze metastable overdamped Langevin dynamics, in particular to quantify the degree of metastability. We discuss the interest of these approaches to estimate the efficiency of some classical algorithms used to speed up the sampling, and to evaluate the error introduced by some coarse-graining procedures. This paper is a summary of a plenary talk given by the author at the ENUMATH 2011 conference

Adaptive Resolution Simulation in Equilibrium and Beyond

In this paper, we investigate the equilibrium statistical properties of both the force and potential interpolations of adaptive resolution simulation (AdResS) under the theoretical framework of grand-canonical like AdResS (GC-AdResS). The thermodynamic relations between the higher and lower resolutions are derived by considering the absence of fundamental conservation laws in mechanics for both branches of AdResS. In order to investigate the applicability of AdResS method in studying the properties beyond the equilibrium, we demonstrate the accuracy of AdResS in computing the dynamical properties in two numerical examples: The velocity auto-correlation of pure water and the conformational relaxation of alanine dipeptide dissolved in water. Theoretical and technical open questions of the AdResS method are discussed in the end of the paper

Data-driven model reduction and transfer operator approximation

In this review paper, we will present different data-driven dimension reduction techniques for dynamical systems that are based on transfer operator theory as well as methods to approximate transfer operators and their eigenvalues, eigenfunctions, and eigenmodes. The goal is to point out similarities and differences between methods developed independently by the dynamical systems, fluid dynamics, and molecular dynamics communities such as time-lagged independent component analysis (TICA), dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), and their respective generalizations. As a result, extensions and best practices developed for one particular method can be carried over to other related methods

Analysis and optimization of weighted ensemble sampling

We give a mathematical framework for weighted ensemble (WE) sampling, a binning and resampling technique for efficiently computing probabilities in molecular dynamics. We prove that WE sampling is unbiased in a very general setting that includes adaptive binning. We show that when WE is used for stationary calculations in tandem with a coarse model, the coarse model can be used to optimize the allocation of replicas in the bins.Comment: 22 pages, 3 figure

Soft versus hard metastable conformations in molecular simulations

Particle methods have become indispensible in conformation dynamics to compute transition rates in protein folding, binding processes and molecular design, to mention a few. Conformation dynamics requires at a decomposition of a molecule’s position space into metastable conformations. In this paper, we show how this decomposition can be obtained via the design of either “soft” or “hard” molecular conformations. We show, that the soft approach results in a larger metastabilitiy of the decomposition and is thus more advantegous. This is illustrated by a simulation of Alanine Dipeptide