SURGE: Continuous Detection of Bursty Regions Over a Stream of Spatial Objects

With the proliferation of mobile devices and location-based services, continuous generation of massive volume of streaming spatial objects (i.e., geo-tagged data) opens up new opportunities to address real-world problems by analyzing them. In this paper, we present a novel continuous bursty region detection problem that aims to continuously detect a bursty region of a given size in a specified geographical area from a stream of spatial objects. Specifically, a bursty region shows maximum spike in the number of spatial objects in a given time window. The problem is useful in addressing several real-world challenges such as surge pricing problem in online transportation and disease outbreak detection. To solve the problem, we propose an exact solution and two approximate solutions, and the approximation ratio is $\frac{1-\alpha}{4}$ in terms of the burst score, where $\alpha$ is a parameter to control the burst score. We further extend these solutions to support detection of top-$k$ bursty regions. Extensive experiments with real-world data are conducted to demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our solutions

Predictability of conversation partners

Recent developments in sensing technologies have enabled us to examine the nature of human social behavior in greater detail. By applying an information theoretic method to the spatiotemporal data of cell-phone locations, [C. Song et al. Science 327, 1018 (2010)] found that human mobility patterns are remarkably predictable. Inspired by their work, we address a similar predictability question in a different kind of human social activity: conversation events. The predictability in the sequence of one's conversation partners is defined as the degree to which one's next conversation partner can be predicted given the current partner. We quantify this predictability by using the mutual information. We examine the predictability of conversation events for each individual using the longitudinal data of face-to-face interactions collected from two company offices in Japan. Each subject wears a name tag equipped with an infrared sensor node, and conversation events are marked when signals are exchanged between sensor nodes in close proximity. We find that the conversation events are predictable to some extent; knowing the current partner decreases the uncertainty about the next partner by 28.4% on average. Much of the predictability is explained by long-tailed distributions of interevent intervals. However, a predictability also exists in the data, apart from the contribution of their long-tailed nature. In addition, an individual's predictability is correlated with the position in the static social network derived from the data. Individuals confined in a community - in the sense of an abundance of surrounding triangles - tend to have low predictability, and those bridging different communities tend to have high predictability.Comment: 38 pages, 19 figure

Seeking for a fingerprint: analysis of point processes in actigraphy recording

Motor activity of humans displays complex temporal fluctuations which can be characterized by scale-invariant statistics, thus documenting that structure and fluctuations of such kinetics remain similar over a broad range of time scales. Former studies on humans regularly deprived of sleep or suffering from sleep disorders predicted change in the invariant scale parameters with respect to those representative for healthy subjects. In this study we investigate the signal patterns from actigraphy recordings by means of characteristic measures of fractional point processes. We analyse spontaneous locomotor activity of healthy individuals recorded during a week of regular sleep and a week of chronic partial sleep deprivation. Behavioural symptoms of lack of sleep can be evaluated by analysing statistics of duration times during active and resting states, and alteration of behavioural organization can be assessed by analysis of power laws detected in the event count distribution, distribution of waiting times between consecutive movements and detrended fluctuation analysis of recorded time series. We claim that among different measures characterizing complexity of the actigraphy recordings and their variations implied by chronic sleep distress, the exponents characterizing slopes of survival functions in resting states are the most effective biomarkers distinguishing between healthy and sleep-deprived groups.Comment: Communicated at UPON2015, 14-17 July 2015, Barcelona. 21 pages, 11 figures; updated: figures 4-7, text revised, expanded Sec. 1,3,

Win-stay lose-shift strategy in formation changes in football

Managerial decision making is likely to be a dominant determinant of performance of teams in team sports. Here we use Japanese and German football data to investigate correlates between temporal patterns of formation changes across matches and match results. We found that individual teams and managers both showed win-stay lose-shift behavior, a type of reinforcement learning. In other words, they tended to stick to the current formation after a win and switch to a different formation after a loss. In addition, formation changes did not statistically improve the results of succeeding matches.The results indicate that a swift implementation of a new formation in the win-stay lose-shift manner may not be a successful managerial rule of thumb.Comment: 7 figures, 11 table

Scaling in the space climatology of the auroral indices: Is SOC the only possible explanation ?

The study of the robust features of the magnetosphere is motivated both by new "whole system" approaches, and by the idea of "space climate" as opposed to "space weather". We enumerate these features for the AE index, and discuss whether self-organised criticality (SOC) is the most natural explanation of the "stylised facts" so far known for AE. We identify and discuss some open questions, answers to which will clarify the extent to which AE's properties provide evidence for SOC. We then suggest an SOC-like reconnection-based scenario drawing on the result of Craig(2001) as an explanation of the very recent demonstration by Uritsky et al(2001b) of power laws in several properties of spatiotemporal features seen in auroral images.Comment: 24 pages including 7 figures. Based on an invited talk given at the IAGA meeting in Hanoi, Vietnam, August 2000. Retitled v2 has revisions, clearer statement of intent of paper i.e. part review/part critique/some new suggestions, and 1 new figure. In press, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysic