A Model for Optimal Human Navigation with Stochastic Effects

We present a method for optimal path planning of human walking paths in mountainous terrain, using a control theoretic formulation and a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Previous models for human navigation were entirely deterministic, assuming perfect knowledge of the ambient elevation data and human walking velocity as a function of local slope of the terrain. Our model includes a stochastic component which can account for uncertainty in the problem, and thus includes a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation with viscosity. We discuss the model in the presence and absence of stochastic effects, and suggest numerical methods for simulating the model. We discuss two different notions of an optimal path when there is uncertainty in the problem. Finally, we compare the optimal paths suggested by the model at different levels of uncertainty, and observe that as the size of the uncertainty tends to zero (and thus the viscosity in the equation tends to zero), the optimal path tends toward the deterministic optimal path

A time-fractional mean field game

We consider a Mean Field Games model where the dynamics of the agents is subdiffusive. According to the optimal control interpretation of the problem, we get a system involving fractional time-derivatives for the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman and the Fokker-Planck equations. We discuss separately the well-posedness for each of the two equations and then we prove existence and uniqueness of the solution to the Mean Field Games syste

A survey of random processes with reinforcement

The models surveyed include generalized P\'{o}lya urns, reinforced random walks, interacting urn models, and continuous reinforced processes. Emphasis is on methods and results, with sketches provided of some proofs. Applications are discussed in statistics, biology, economics and a number of other areas.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-PS094 in the Probability Surveys (http://www.i-journals.org/ps/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Diffusion and localization of relative strategy scores in the Minority Game

We study the equilibrium distribution of relative strategy scores of agents in the asymmetric phase ($\alpha\equiv P/N\gtrsim 1$) of the basic Minority Game using sign-payoff, with $N$ agents holding two strategies over $P$ histories. We formulate a statistical model that makes use of the gauge freedom with respect to the ordering of an agent's strategies to quantify the correlation between the attendance and the distribution of strategies. The relative score $x\in\mathbb{Z}$ of the two strategies of an agent is described in terms of a one dimensional random walk with asymmetric jump probabilities, leading either to a static and asymmetric exponential distribution centered at $x=0$ for fickle agents or to diffusion with a positive or negative drift for frozen agents. In terms of scaled coordinates $x/\sqrt{N}$ and $t/N$ the distributions are uniquely given by $\alpha$ and in quantitative agreement with direct simulations of the game. As the model avoids the reformulation in terms of a constrained minimization problem it can be used for arbitrary payoff functions with little calculational effort and provides a transparent and simple formulation of the dynamics of the basic Minority Game in the asymmetric phase

Coupled effects of local movement and global interaction on contagion

By incorporating segregated spatial domain and individual-based linkage into the SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model, we investigate the coupled effects of random walk and intragroup interaction on contagion. Compared with the situation where only local movement or individual-based linkage exists, the coexistence of them leads to a wider spread of infectious disease. The roles of narrowing segregated spatial domain and reducing mobility in epidemic control are checked, these two measures are found to be conducive to curbing the spread of infectious disease. Considering heterogeneous time scales between local movement and global interaction, a log-log relation between the change in the number of infected individuals and the timescale $\tau$ is found. A theoretical analysis indicates that the evolutionary dynamics in the present model is related to the encounter probability and the encounter time. A functional relation between the epidemic threshold and the ratio of shortcuts, and a functional relation between the encounter time and the timescale $\tau$ are found