Best-fit quasi-equilibrium ensembles: a general approach to statistical closure of underresolved Hamiltonian dynamics

A new method of deriving reduced models of Hamiltonian dynamical systems is developed using techniques from optimization and statistical estimation. Given a set of resolved variables that define a model reduction, the quasi-equilibrium ensembles associated with the resolved variables are employed as a family of trial probability densities on phase space. The residual that results from submitting these trial densities to the Liouville equation is quantified by an ensemble-averaged cost function related to the information loss rate of the reduction. From an initial nonequilibrium state, the statistical state of the system at any later time is estimated by minimizing the time integral of the cost function over paths of trial densities. Statistical closure of the underresolved dynamics is obtained at the level of the value function, which equals the optimal cost of reduction with respect to the resolved variables, and the evolution of the estimated statistical state is deduced from the Hamilton-Jacobi equation satisfied by the value function. In the near-equilibrium regime, or under a local quadratic approximation in the far-from-equilibrium regime, this best-fit closure is governed by a differential equation for the estimated state vector coupled to a Riccati differential equation for the Hessian matrix of the value function. Since memory effects are not explicitly included in the trial densities, a single adjustable parameter is introduced into the cost function to capture a time-scale ratio between resolved and unresolved motions. Apart from this parameter, the closed equations for the resolved variables are completely determined by the underlying deterministic dynamics

An optimization principle for deriving nonequilibrium statistical models of Hamiltonian dynamics

A general method for deriving closed reduced models of Hamiltonian dynamical systems is developed using techniques from optimization and statistical estimation. As in standard projection operator methods, a set of resolved variables is selected to capture the slow, macroscopic behavior of the system, and the family of quasi-equilibrium probability densities on phase space corresponding to these resolved variables is employed as a statistical model. The macroscopic dynamics of the mean resolved variables is determined by optimizing over paths of these probability densities. Specifically, a cost function is introduced that quantifies the lack-of-fit of such paths to the underlying microscopic dynamics; it is an ensemble-averaged, squared-norm of the residual that results from submitting a path of trial densities to the Liouville equation. The evolution of the macrostate is estimated by minimizing the time integral of the cost function. The value function for this optimization satisfies the associated Hamilton-Jacobi equation, and it determines the optimal relation between the statistical parameters and the irreversible fluxes of the resolved variables, thereby closing the reduced dynamics. The resulting equations for the macroscopic variables have the generic form of governing equations for nonequilibrium thermodynamics, and they furnish a rational extension of the classical equations of linear irreversible thermodynamics beyond the near-equilibrium regime. In particular, the value function is a thermodynamic potential that extends the classical dissipation function and supplies the nonlinear relation between thermodynamics forces and fluxes

Repeating voting with complete information

A committee is choosing from two alternatives. If required supermajority is not reached, voting is repeated indefinitely, although there is a cost of delay. Under suitable assumptions the equilibrium analysis provides a sharp prediction. The result can be interpreted as a generalization of the seminal median voter theorem known from the simple majority case. If supermajority is required instead, then the power to select the outcome moves from the median voter to the more extreme voters. Normative analysis indicates that the simple majority is not constrained efficient because it does not reflect the strengths of voters' opinion. Even if unanimity is a bad voting rule, voting rules close to unanimity may be efficient. The more likely it is to have a very many almost indifferent voters and some very opinionated ones, the more stringent supermajority is required for efficienc

On the oscillations in Mercury's obliquity

One major objective of MESSENGER and BepiColombo spatial missions is to accurately measure Mercury's rotation and its obliquity in order to obtain constraints on internal structure of the planet. Which is the obliquity's dynamical behavior deriving from a complete spin-orbit motion of Mercury simultaneously integrated with planetary interactions? We have used our SONYR model integrating the spin-orbit N-body problem applied to the solar System (Sun and planets). For lack of current accurate observations or ephemerides of Mercury's rotation, and therefore for lack of valid initial conditions for a numerical integration, we have built an original method for finding the libration center of the spin-orbit system and, as a consequence, for avoiding arbitrary amplitudes in librations of the spin-orbit motion as well as in Mercury's obliquity. The method has been carried out in two cases: (1) the spin-orbit motion of Mercury in the 2-body problem case (Sun-Mercury) where an uniform precession of the Keplerian orbital plane is kinematically added at a fixed inclination (S2K case), (2) the spin-orbit motion of Mercury in the N-body problem case (Sun and planets) (Sn case). We find that the remaining amplitude of the oscillations in the Sn case is one order of magnitude larger than in the S2K case, namely 4 versus 0.4 arcseconds (peak-to-peak). The mean obliquity is also larger, namely 1.98 versus 1.80 arcminutes, for a difference of 10.8 arcseconds. These theoretical results are in a good agreement with recent radar observations but it is not excluded that it should be possible to push farther the convergence process by drawing nearer still more precisely to the libration center.Comment: 30 pages, 3 tables, 8 figures, accepted to Icarus (26 Jul 2007