Turbulence, Inequality, and Cheap Steel

Iron and steel production grew dramatically in the U.S. when mass production technologies for steel were adopted in the 1860s. According to new measures presented in this study, earnings inequality rose within the iron and steel industries about 1870, perhaps because technological uncertainty led to gambles and turbulence. Firms made a variety of technological choices and began formal research and development. Professional associations and journals for mechanical engineers and chemists appeared. A national market replaced local markets for iron and steel. An industrial union replaced craft unions. As new ore sources and cheap water transportation were introduced, new plants along the Great Lakes outcompeted existing plants elsewhere. Because new iron and steel plants in the 1870s were larger than any U.S. plants had ever been, cost accounting appeared in the industry and grew in importance. Uncertainty explains the rise in inequality better than a skill bias account, according to which differences among individuals generate greater differences in wages. Analogous issues of inequality come up with respect to recent information technology.technological change, Bessemer steel, technological uncertainty, turbulence, inequality, innovation

The Strength of Occupation Indicators as a Proxy for Skill

Labor economists have long used occupation indicators as a proxy for unobserved skills that a worker possesses. In this paper, we consider whether inter-occupational wage differentials that are unexplained by measured human capital are indeed due to differences in often-unmeasured skill. Using the National Compensation Survey, a large, nationally- representative dataset on jobs and ten different components of requisite skill, we compare the effects on residual wage variation of including occupation indicators and including additional skills measures. We find that although skills do vary across 3-digit occupations, occupation indicators decrease wage residuals by far more than can be explained by skill differentials. This indicates that “controlling for occupation” does not equate to controlling for skill alone, but also for some other factors to a great extent. Additionally, we find that there is considerable within occupation variation in skills, and that the amount of variation is not constant across skill levels. As a result, including occupation indicators in a wage model introduces heteroskedasticity that must be accounted for. We suggest that greater caution be applied when using and interpreting occupation indicators as controls in wage regressions.human capital measurement; job skills; occupation indicator variables

Business Employment Dynamics: Tabulations by Employer Size

The gross job gains and gross job loss statistics from the BLS Business Employment Dynamics (BED) program measure the large gross job flows that underlie the quarterly net change in employment. In the fourth quarter of 2004, employment grew by 869,000 jobs. This growth is the sum of 8.1 million gross job gains from opening and expanding establishments, and 7.2 million gross job losses from contracting and closing establishments. The new BED data have captured the attention of economists and policymakers across the country, and these data are becoming a major contributor to our understanding of employment growth and business cycles in the U.S. economy. Following the initial release of the BED data in September 2003, the BED data series expanded in May 2004 with the release of industry statistics. The BLS then began work on tabulations by size class. The production of size-class statistics is a complex task involving several economic and statistical issues. Although it is trivial to classify a business into a size class in any given quarter, it is difficult to classify a business into a size class for a longitudinal analysis of employment growth. Several different classifications exist, and many of these possible classifications have appealing theoretical and statistical properties. Furthermore, these alternative classification methodologies result in sharply different portraits of employment growth by size class. In this article, we discuss the alternative statistical methodologies that the BLS considered for creating size class tabulations from the Business Employment Dynamics data. Our primary focus is on four methodologies: quarterly base-sizing, annual base-sizing, mean-sizing, and dynamic-sizing. We discuss the evaluation criteria that BLS considered for choosing its official size class methodology.gross job gains; gross job losses; business employment dynamics; size-class statistics; dynamic-sizing

New Evidence on Outlet Substitution Effects in Consumer Price Index Data

In this paper we provide new and detailed evidence on the impact on the U.S. CPI of the appearance and growth of new types of product outlets. Using actual CPI microdata for 2002-2007, we find that the changing mix of outlets had a statistically significantly negative impact on average prices in most of the 14 item food categories we study. In contrast to previous studies of this issue, our approach allows us to examine the effects of changes in outlet mix both across outlet types (such as among large groceries, discount department stores, and warehouse club stores) and within those outlet categories. We also adjust for numerous differences in item characteristics such as brand name, organic certification, and, importantly, package size. In our sample we find that the upward impact on price from increased item quality has offset most of the downward impact of lower-priced outlets. We also provide evidence showing that a simulated “matched-model” approach similar to that used in the CPI yields indexes that differ to a surprising extent from our baseline hedonic indexes, which also hold outlet and item mix constant.Outlet Bias, Consumer Price Index

Returning to the Returns to Computer Use

This paper re-examines the returns to computer use using a new matched workplace-employee data from Canada. We control for potential selection using instrumental variables. Results suggest that it is not merely the employee having a computer on his desk, but rather having complementary computer skills, that causes wages to increase.computers, computer skills, human capital, technology

Studying the Labor Market with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is a new data source of the Bureau of Labor Statistics that estimates monthly vacancies, hires, and separations. It has quickly become a useful tool for studying the labor market. This chapter summarizes its aggregate and micro-level evidence, including the relations of vacancies and worker flows to unemployment and other measures of labor market conditions. The chapter also discusses the implications of this evidence and the potential of the data for future research.Vacancies; Beveridge Curve; Labor Turnover; Labor Market Search;

Is Job Enrichment Really Enriching?

This study uses a survey of Canadian workers with rich, matched data on job characteristics to examine whether “enriched” job design, with features like quality circles, feedback, suggestion programs, and task teams, affects job satisfaction. We identify two competing hypotheses on the relationship between enriched jobs and job satisfaction. The “motivation hypothesis,” implies that enrichment will generally increase satisfaction and the “intensification hypothesis,” implies that enrichment may decrease satisfaction by increasing the intensity and scope of work. Our results show that several forms of enrichment, specifically suggestion programs, information sharing, task teams, quality circles and training, raise satisfaction. Therefore we argue that the data support the motivation hypothesis. Partitioning the data by education level or union membership further supports this conclusion, while a direct test of the intensification hypothesis does not support the competing hypothesis.Job Satisfaction; Job Enrichment; Human Resource Practices

Parental Transfers, Student Achievement, and the Labor Supply of College Students

Using nationally representative data from the NLSY97, financial motivations for and the effects of employment on U.S. college students’ academic performance are examined. While it is expected that fewer financial resources and a higher cost of college cause greater student employment, the data indicate that the number of hours a student works per week is unaffected by either the level of parental transfers or the cost of schooling. Contrary to existing evidence that a greater number of hours worked leads to poorer academic performance, the number of hours worked per week does not negatively affect a student’s GPA and may actually improve it.schooling, educational finance, grades, college students

An Update on Bridge Jobs: The HRS War Babies

Are today’s youngest retirees following in the footsteps of their older peers with respect to gradual retirement? Recent evidence from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) suggests that most older Americans with full-time career jobs later in life transitioned to another job prior to complete labor force withdrawal. This paper explores the retirement patterns of a younger cohort of individuals from the HRS known as the “War Babies.” These survey respondents were born between 1942 and 1947 and were 57 to 62 years of age at the time of their fourth bi-annual HRS interview in 2004. We compare the War Babies to an older cohort of HRS respondents and find that, for the most part, the War Babies have followed the gradual-retirement trends of their slightly older predecessors. Traditional one-time, permanent retirements appear to be fading, a sign that the impact of changes in the retirement income landscape since the 1980s continues to unfold.Economics of Aging, Partial Retirement, Gradual Retirement