4,601 research outputs found
Gamma Processes, Stick-Breaking, and Variational Inference
While most Bayesian nonparametric models in machine learning have focused on
the Dirichlet process, the beta process, or their variants, the gamma process
has recently emerged as a useful nonparametric prior in its own right. Current
inference schemes for models involving the gamma process are restricted to
MCMC-based methods, which limits their scalability. In this paper, we present a
variational inference framework for models involving gamma process priors. Our
approach is based on a novel stick-breaking constructive definition of the
gamma process. We prove correctness of this stick-breaking process by using the
characterization of the gamma process as a completely random measure (CRM), and
we explicitly derive the rate measure of our construction using Poisson process
machinery. We also derive error bounds on the truncation of the infinite
process required for variational inference, similar to the truncation analyses
for other nonparametric models based on the Dirichlet and beta processes. Our
representation is then used to derive a variational inference algorithm for a
particular Bayesian nonparametric latent structure formulation known as the
infinite Gamma-Poisson model, where the latent variables are drawn from a gamma
process prior with Poisson likelihoods. Finally, we present results for our
algorithms on nonnegative matrix factorization tasks on document corpora, and
show that we compare favorably to both sampling-based techniques and
variational approaches based on beta-Bernoulli priors
A Tutorial on Bayesian Nonparametric Models
A key problem in statistical modeling is model selection, how to choose a
model at an appropriate level of complexity. This problem appears in many
settings, most prominently in choosing the number ofclusters in mixture models
or the number of factors in factor analysis. In this tutorial we describe
Bayesian nonparametric methods, a class of methods that side-steps this issue
by allowing the data to determine the complexity of the model. This tutorial is
a high-level introduction to Bayesian nonparametric methods and contains
several examples of their application.Comment: 28 pages, 8 figure
Priors for Random Count Matrices Derived from a Family of Negative Binomial Processes
We define a family of probability distributions for random count matrices
with a potentially unbounded number of rows and columns. The three
distributions we consider are derived from the gamma-Poisson, gamma-negative
binomial, and beta-negative binomial processes. Because the models lead to
closed-form Gibbs sampling update equations, they are natural candidates for
nonparametric Bayesian priors over count matrices. A key aspect of our analysis
is the recognition that, although the random count matrices within the family
are defined by a row-wise construction, their columns can be shown to be i.i.d.
This fact is used to derive explicit formulas for drawing all the columns at
once. Moreover, by analyzing these matrices' combinatorial structure, we
describe how to sequentially construct a column-i.i.d. random count matrix one
row at a time, and derive the predictive distribution of a new row count vector
with previously unseen features. We describe the similarities and differences
between the three priors, and argue that the greater flexibility of the gamma-
and beta- negative binomial processes, especially their ability to model
over-dispersed, heavy-tailed count data, makes these well suited to a wide
variety of real-world applications. As an example of our framework, we
construct a naive-Bayes text classifier to categorize a count vector to one of
several existing random count matrices of different categories. The classifier
supports an unbounded number of features, and unlike most existing methods, it
does not require a predefined finite vocabulary to be shared by all the
categories, and needs neither feature selection nor parameter tuning. Both the
gamma- and beta- negative binomial processes are shown to significantly
outperform the gamma-Poisson process for document categorization, with
comparable performance to other state-of-the-art supervised text classification
algorithms.Comment: To appear in Journal of the American Statistical Association (Theory
and Methods). 31 pages + 11 page supplement, 5 figure
Modeling for seasonal marked point processes: An analysis of evolving hurricane occurrences
Seasonal point processes refer to stochastic models for random events which
are only observed in a given season. We develop nonparametric Bayesian
methodology to study the dynamic evolution of a seasonal marked point process
intensity. We assume the point process is a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and
propose a nonparametric mixture of beta densities to model dynamically evolving
temporal Poisson process intensities. Dependence structure is built through a
dependent Dirichlet process prior for the seasonally-varying mixing
distributions. We extend the nonparametric model to incorporate time-varying
marks, resulting in flexible inference for both the seasonal point process
intensity and for the conditional mark distribution. The motivating application
involves the analysis of hurricane landfalls with reported damages along the
U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts from 1900 to 2010. We focus on studying the
evolution of the intensity of the process of hurricane landfall occurrences,
and the respective maximum wind speed and associated damages. Our results
indicate an increase in the number of hurricane landfall occurrences and a
decrease in the median maximum wind speed at the peak of the season.
Introducing standardized damage as a mark, such that reported damages are
comparable both in time and space, we find that there is no significant rising
trend in hurricane damages over time.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS796 in the Annals of
Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
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