Identification of time-varying systems using multiresolution wavelet models

Identification of linear and nonlinear time-varying systems is investigated and a new wavelet model identification algorithm is introduced. By expanding each time-varying coefficient using a multiresolution wavelet expansion, the time-varying problem is reduced to a time invariant problem and the identification reduces to regressor selection and parameter estimation. Several examples are included to illustrate the application of the new algorithm

A Reproducing Kernel Perspective of Smoothing Spline Estimators

Spline functions have a long history as smoothers of noisy time series data, and several equivalent kernel representations have been proposed in terms of the Green's function solving the related boundary value problem. In this study we make use of the reproducing kernel property of the Green's function to obtain an hierarchy of time-invariant spline kernels of different order. The reproducing kernels give a good representation of smoothing splines for medium and long length filters, with a better performance of the asymmetric weights in terms of signal passing, noise suppression and revisions. Empirical comparisons of time-invariant filters are made with the classical non linear ones. The former are shown to loose part of their optimal properties when we fixed the length of the filter according to the noise to signal ratio as done in nonparametric seasonal adjustment procedures.equivalent kernels, nonparametric regression, Hilbert spaces, time series filtering, spectral properties

Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data

This paper studies a procedure to combine individual forecasts that achieve theoretical optimal performance. The results apply to a wide variety of loss functions and no conditions are imposed on the data sequences and the individual forecasts apart from a tail condition. The theoretical results show that the bounds are also valid in the case of time varying combination weights, under specific conditions on the nature of time variation. Some experimental evidence to confirm the results is provided

Semi-nonparametric IV estimation of shape-invariant Engel curves

This paper studies a shape-invariant Engel curve system with endogenous total expenditure, in which the shape-invariant specification involves a common shift parameter for each demographic group in a pooled system of nonparametric Engel curves. We focus on the identification and estimation of both the nonparametric shapes of the Engel curves and the parametric specification of the demographic scaling parameters. The identification condition relates to the bounded completeness and the estimation procedure applies the sieve minimum distance estimation of conditional moment restrictions, allowing for endogeneity. We establish a new root mean squared convergence rate for the nonparametric instrumental variable regression when the endogenous regressor could have unbounded support. Root-n asymptotic normality and semiparametric efficiency of the parametric components are also given under a set of "low-level" sufficient conditions. Our empirical application using the U.K. Family Expenditure Survey shows the importance of adjusting for endogeneity in terms of both the nonparametric curvatures and the demographic parameters of systems of Engel curves