Multivariate Spatiotemporal Hawkes Processes and Network Reconstruction

There is often latent network structure in spatial and temporal data and the tools of network analysis can yield fascinating insights into such data. In this paper, we develop a nonparametric method for network reconstruction from spatiotemporal data sets using multivariate Hawkes processes. In contrast to prior work on network reconstruction with point-process models, which has often focused on exclusively temporal information, our approach uses both temporal and spatial information and does not assume a specific parametric form of network dynamics. This leads to an effective way of recovering an underlying network. We illustrate our approach using both synthetic networks and networks constructed from real-world data sets (a location-based social media network, a narrative of crime events, and violent gang crimes). Our results demonstrate that, in comparison to using only temporal data, our spatiotemporal approach yields improved network reconstruction, providing a basis for meaningful subsequent analysis --- such as community structure and motif analysis --- of the reconstructed networks

Unsupervised robust nonparametric learning of hidden community properties

We consider learning of fundamental properties of communities in large noisy networks, in the prototypical situation where the nodes or users are split into two classes according to a binary property, e.g., according to their opinions or preferences on a topic. For learning these properties, we propose a nonparametric, unsupervised, and scalable graph scan procedure that is, in addition, robust against a class of powerful adversaries. In our setup, one of the communities can fall under the influence of a knowledgeable adversarial leader, who knows the full network structure, has unlimited computational resources and can completely foresee our planned actions on the network. We prove strong consistency of our results in this setup with minimal assumptions. In particular, the learning procedure estimates the baseline activity of normal users asymptotically correctly with probability 1; the only assumption being the existence of a single implicit community of asymptotically negligible logarithmic size. We provide experiments on real and synthetic data to illustrate the performance of our method, including examples with adversaries.Comment: Experiments with new types of adversaries adde

Cluster detection in networks using percolation

We consider the task of detecting a salient cluster in a sensor network, that is, an undirected graph with a random variable attached to each node. Motivated by recent research in environmental statistics and the drive to compete with the reigning scan statistic, we explore alternatives based on the percolative properties of the network. The first method is based on the size of the largest connected component after removing the nodes in the network with a value below a given threshold. The second method is the upper level set scan test introduced by Patil and Taillie [Statist. Sci. 18 (2003) 457-465]. We establish the performance of these methods in an asymptotic decision- theoretic framework in which the network size increases. These tests have two advantages over the more conventional scan statistic: they do not require previous information about cluster shape, and they are computationally more feasible. We make abundant use of percolation theory to derive our theoretical results, and complement our theory with some numerical experiments.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/11-BEJ412 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Low-frequency oscillatory correlates of auditory predictive processing in cortical-subcortical networks: a MEG-study

Emerging evidence supports the role of neural oscillations as a mechanism for predictive information processing across large-scale networks. However, the oscillatory signatures underlying auditory mismatch detection and information flow between brain regions remain unclear. To address this issue, we examined the contribution of oscillatory activity at theta/alpha-bands (4–8/8–13 Hz) and assessed directed connectivity in magnetoencephalographic data while 17 human participants were presented with sound sequences containing predictable repetitions and order manipulations that elicited prediction-error responses. We characterized the spectro-temporal properties of neural generators using a minimum-norm approach and assessed directed connectivity using Granger Causality analysis. Mismatching sequences elicited increased theta power and phase-locking in auditory, hippocampal and prefrontal cortices, suggesting that theta-band oscillations underlie prediction-error generation in cortical-subcortical networks. Furthermore, enhanced feedforward theta/alpha-band connectivity was observed in auditory-prefrontal networks during mismatching sequences, while increased feedback connectivity in the alpha-band was observed between hippocampus and auditory regions during predictable sounds. Our findings highlight the involvement of hippocampal theta/alpha-band oscillations towards auditory prediction-error generation and suggest a spectral dissociation between inter-areal feedforward vs. feedback signalling, thus providing novel insights into the oscillatory mechanisms underlying auditory predictive processing

Change Point Methods on a Sequence of Graphs

Given a finite sequence of graphs, e.g., coming from technological, biological, and social networks, the paper proposes a methodology to identify possible changes in stationarity in the stochastic process generating the graphs. In order to cover a large class of applications, we consider the general family of attributed graphs where both topology (number of vertexes and edge configuration) and related attributes are allowed to change also in the stationary case. Novel Change Point Methods (CPMs) are proposed, that (i) map graphs into a vector domain; (ii) apply a suitable statistical test in the vector space; (iii) detect the change --if any-- according to a confidence level and provide an estimate for its time occurrence. Two specific multivariate CPMs have been designed: one that detects shifts in the distribution mean, the other addressing generic changes affecting the distribution. We ground our proposal with theoretical results showing how to relate the inference attained in the numerical vector space to the graph domain, and vice versa. We also show how to extend the methodology for handling multiple change points in the same sequence. Finally, the proposed CPMs have been validated on real data sets coming from epileptic-seizure detection problems and on labeled data sets for graph classification. Results show the effectiveness of what proposed in relevant application scenarios