Prediction in Photovoltaic Power by Neural Networks

The ability to forecast the power produced by renewable energy plants in the short and middle term is a key issue to allow a high-level penetration of the distributed generation into the grid infrastructure. Forecasting energy production is mandatory for dispatching and distribution issues, at the transmission system operator level, as well as the electrical distributor and power system operator levels. In this paper, we present three techniques based on neural and fuzzy neural networks, namely the radial basis function, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and the higher-order neuro-fuzzy inference system, which are well suited to predict data sequences stemming from real-world applications. The preliminary results concerning the prediction of the power generated by a large-scale photovoltaic plant in Italy confirm the reliability and accuracy of the proposed approaches

Air pollution forecasts: An overview

© 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies

State-of-the-Art Using Bibliometric Analysis of Wind-Speed and -Power Forecasting Methods Applied in Power Systems

The integration of wind energy into power systems has intensified as a result of the urgency for global energy transition. This requires more accurate forecasting techniques that can capture the variability of the wind resource to achieve better operative performance of power systems. This paper presents an exhaustive review of the state-of-the-art of wind-speed and -power forecasting models for wind turbines located in different segments of power systems, i.e., in large wind farms, distributed generation, microgrids, and micro-wind turbines installed in residences and buildings. This review covers forecasting models based on statistical and physical, artificial intelligence, and hybrid methods, with deterministic or probabilistic approaches. The literature review is carried out through a bibliometric analysis using VOSviewer and Pajek software. A discussion of the results is carried out, taking as the main approach the forecast time horizon of the models to identify their applications. The trends indicate a predominance of hybrid forecast models for the analysis of power systems, especially for those with high penetration of wind power. Finally, it is determined that most of the papers analyzed belong to the very short-term horizon, which indicates that the interest of researchers is in this time horizon

Applications of Probabilistic Forecasting in Smart Grids : A Review

This paper reviews the recent studies and works dealing with probabilistic forecasting models and their applications in smart grids. According to these studies, this paper tries to introduce a roadmap towards decision-making under uncertainty in a smart grid environment. In this way, it firstly discusses the common methods employed to predict the distribution of variables. Then, it reviews how the recent literature used these forecasting methods and for which uncertain parameters they wanted to obtain distributions. Unlike the existing reviews, this paper assesses several uncertain parameters for which probabilistic forecasting models have been developed. In the next stage, this paper provides an overview related to scenario generation of uncertain parameters using their distributions and how these scenarios are adopted for optimal decision-making. In this regard, this paper discusses three types of optimization problems aiming to capture uncertainties and reviews the related papers. Finally, we propose some future applications of probabilistic forecasting based on the flexibility challenges of power systems in the near future.© 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Review of Low Voltage Load Forecasting: Methods, Applications, and Recommendations

The increased digitalisation and monitoring of the energy system opens up numerous opportunities to decarbonise the energy system. Applications on low voltage, local networks, such as community energy markets and smart storage will facilitate decarbonisation, but they will require advanced control and management. Reliable forecasting will be a necessary component of many of these systems to anticipate key features and uncertainties. Despite this urgent need, there has not yet been an extensive investigation into the current state-of-the-art of low voltage level forecasts, other than at the smart meter level. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the landscape, current approaches, core applications, challenges and recommendations. Another aim of this paper is to facilitate the continued improvement and advancement in this area. To this end, the paper also surveys some of the most relevant and promising trends. It establishes an open, community-driven list of the known low voltage level open datasets to encourage further research and development.Comment: 37 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables, review pape

Predicción de parámetros del viento aplicado a turbinas eólicas.

Trabajo de Fin de Grado en Ingeniería Informática, Facultad de Informática UCM, Departamento de Arquitectura de Computadores y Automática, Curso 2021/2022.In recent years, the importance of clean and renewable energy has increased due to the rise of pollution and environmental degradation. In that context, alternatives such as wind, solar, wave, green hydrogen, or biomass stand out. Specifically, wind energy has been considered as one of the most promising alternatives. Nevertheless, wind energy is a quite unstable source, due to the continuous variation and random nature of wind and wind speed. The uncertainty generated by this energy production clearly affects its stability, and increases the cost of its productions. That is why accurate forecasting of wind positively affects wind energy development and its trade in certain markets. In this context, we have analyzed if gradient boosting (XGBoost), a very recent and powerful intelligent technique, can be used to obtain great results in wind prediction. Therefore, in this project we aim to model some wind features using XGBoost, and then compare them with the performance of other algorithms, such as Support Vector Regression (SVR), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and neural networks (NN) to see if it is a promising algorithm to consider. In this project we show that the results obtained confirmed our theory: XGBoost is in fact a good option to consider in wind forecasting. However, we have to keep in mind that the further we want to predict, the worse the accuracy of each model gets. Due to this, these algorithms are better for short-term forecasts.Depto. de Arquitectura de Computadores y AutomáticaFac. de InformáticaTRUEunpu

The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather Nowcasting and Forecasting

The numerous recent breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) make imperative to carefully ponder how the scientific community can benefit from a technology that, although not necessarily new, is today living its golden age. This Grand Challenge review paper is focused on the present and future role of machine learning in space weather. The purpose is twofold. On one hand, we will discuss previous works that use ML for space weather forecasting, focusing in particular on the few areas that have seen most activity: the forecasting of geomagnetic indices, of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbits, of solar flares occurrence, of coronal mass ejection propagation time, and of solar wind speed. On the other hand, this paper serves as a gentle introduction to the field of machine learning tailored to the space weather community and as a pointer to a number of open challenges that we believe the community should undertake in the next decade. The recurring themes throughout the review are the need to shift our forecasting paradigm to a probabilistic approach focused on the reliable assessment of uncertainties, and the combination of physics-based and machine learning approaches, known as gray-box.Comment: under revie