Non deterministic Repairable Fault Trees for computing optimal repair strategy

In this paper, the Non deterministic Repairable Fault Tree (NdRFT) formalism is proposed: it allows to model failure modes of complex systems as well as their repair processes. The originality of this formalism with respect to other Fault Tree extensions is that it allows to face repair strategies optimization problems: in an NdRFT model, the decision on whether to start or not a given repair action is non deterministic, so that all the possibilities are left open. The formalism is rather powerful allowing to specify which failure events are observable, whether local repair or global repair can be applied, and the resources needed to start a repair action. The optimal repair strategy can then be computed by solving an optimization problem on a Markov Decision Process (MDP) derived from the NdRFT. A software framework is proposed in order to perform in automatic way the derivation of an MDP from a NdRFT model, and to deal with the solution of the MDP

Supporting group maintenance through prognostics-enhanced dynamic dependability prediction

Condition-based maintenance strategies adapt maintenance planning through the integration of online condition monitoring of assets. The accuracy and cost-effectiveness of these strategies can be improved by integrating prognostics predictions and grouping maintenance actions respectively. In complex industrial systems, however, effective condition-based maintenance is intricate. Such systems are comprised of repairable assets which can fail in different ways, with various effects, and typically governed by dynamics which include time-dependent and conditional events. In this context, system reliability prediction is complex and effective maintenance planning is virtually impossible prior to system deployment and hard even in the case of condition-based maintenance. Addressing these issues, this paper presents an online system maintenance method that takes into account the system dynamics. The method employs an online predictive diagnosis algorithm to distinguish between critical and non-critical assets. A prognostics-updated method for predicting the system health is then employed to yield well-informed, more accurate, condition-based suggestions for the maintenance of critical assets and for the group-based reactive repair of non-critical assets. The cost-effectiveness of the approach is discussed in a case study from the power industry

Synthesizing FDIR Recovery Strategies for Space Systems

Dynamic Fault Trees (DFTs) are powerful tools to drive the design of fault tolerant systems. However, semantic pitfalls limit their practical utility for interconnected systems that require complex recovery strategies to maximize their reliability. This thesis discusses the shortcomings of DFTs in the context of analyzing Fault Detection, Isolation and Recovery (FDIR) concepts with a particular focus on the needs of space systems. To tackle these shortcomings, we introduce an inherently non-deterministic model for DFTs. Deterministic recovery strategies are synthesized by transforming these non-deterministic DFTs into Markov automata that represent all possible choices between recovery actions. From the corresponding scheduler, optimized to maximize a given RAMS (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety) metric, an optimal recovery strategy can then be derived and represented by a model we call recovery automaton. We discuss dedicated techniques for reducing the state space of this recovery automaton and analyze their soundness and completeness. Moreover, modularized approaches to handle the complexity added by the state-based transformation approach are discussed. Furthermore, we consider the non-deterministic approach in a partially observable setting and propose an approach to lift the model for the fully observable case. We give an implementation of our approach within the Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) framework Virtual Satellite. Finally, the implementation is evaluated based on the FFORT benchmark. The results show that basic non-deterministic DFTs generally scale well. However, we also found that semantically enriched non-deterministic DFTs employing repair or delayed observability mechanisms pose a challenge

Fault Tree Analysis: a survey of the state-of-the-art in modeling, analysis and tools

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a very prominent method to analyze the risks related to safety and economically critical assets, like power plants, airplanes, data centers and web shops. FTA methods comprise of a wide variety of modelling and analysis techniques, supported by a wide range of software tools. This paper surveys over 150 papers on fault tree analysis, providing an in-depth overview of the state-of-the-art in FTA. Concretely, we review standard fault trees, as well as extensions such as dynamic FT, repairable FT, and extended FT. For these models, we review both qualitative analysis methods, like cut sets and common cause failures, and quantitative techniques, including a wide variety of stochastic methods to compute failure probabilities. Numerous examples illustrate the various approaches, and tables present a quick overview of results

Semantics of Non-Deterministic Repairable Fault Trees

Fault Tree Analysis is a popular technique used to support the design of critical systems. In a prior work, fault tree semantics have been developed for Non-Deterministic Dynamic FaultTrees that introduces non-determinism to the recovery actions to solve the problem of spare races and improve system reliability. However the existing work only deals with permanent faults. The focus of the thesis work is extending the formalism of NonDeterministic Dynamic Fault Trees to support the notion of repair and develop semantics for Non-Deterministic Repairable Fault Trees to achieve higher availability of system. It includes formalizing the gate semantics and adapting the algorithms for analyzing the fault tree. Furthermore, the thesis work also adapts the minimization algorithms to produce a more compact version of the Recovery Automaton with fewer state

Reliability and fault tolerance modelling of multiprocessor systems

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.Reliability evaluation by analytic modelling constitute an important issue of designing a reliable multiprocessor system. In this thesis, a model for reliability and fault tolerance analysis of the interconnection network is presented, based on graph theory. Reliability and fault tolerance are considered as deterministic and probabilistic measures of connectivity. Exact techniques for reliability evaluation fail for large multiprocessor systems because of the enormous computational resources required. Therefore, approximation techniques have to be used. Three approaches are proposed, the first by simplifying the symbolic expression of reliability; the other two by applying a hierarchical decomposition to the system. All these methods give results close to those obtained by exact techniques.Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia" (National Council for Science and Technology of Mexico) and "Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas" (Institute for Electrical Research

Supporting group maintenance through prognostics-enhanced dynamic dependability prediction

Condition-based maintenance strategies adapt maintenance planning through the integration of online condition monitoring of assets. The accuracy and cost-effectiveness of these strategies can be improved by integrating prognostics predictions and grouping maintenance actions respectively. In complex industrial systems, however, effective condition-based maintenance is intricate. Such systems are comprised of repairable assets which can fail in different ways, with various effects, and typically governed by dynamics which include time-dependent and conditional events. In this context, system reliability prediction is complex and effective maintenance planning is virtually impossible prior to system deployment and hard even in the case of condition-based maintenance. Addressing these issues, this paper presents an online system maintenance method that takes into account the system dynamics. The method employs an online predictive diagnosis algorithm to distinguish between critical and non-critical assets. A prognostics-updated method for predicting the system health is then employed to yield well-informed, more accurate, condition-based suggestions for the maintenance of critical assets and for the group-based reactive repair of non-critical assets. The cost-effectiveness of the approach is discussed in a case study from the power industry