The Influence of Ambiguity and Uncertainty on Wishful Thinking

People are confronted with situations where they have to make choices and judgments every day. In making decisions, people may have a preference for one option over another, and the wishful thinking effect describes their increased optimism and inflation of the likelihood of that option happening. This phenomena has been illustrated in a variety of different contexts, including sporting events and drawing cards from a deck. Further research into the wishful thinking effect illustrates that the greatest amount of this desirability bias is exhibited in situations where the most uncertainty is present. This study expands upon previous research by including the variable of ambiguity, or “uncertainty about uncertainty”. I hypothesized that in situations that were more ambiguous, participants would display a greater amount of wishful thinking. To test this, I manipulated the uncertainty, ambiguity, and desirability of two-color square grids and asked participants to make predictions about which color they believed the computer would choose at random. Contrary to my hypothesis, I found that the greater amount of ambiguity, the less wishful thinking they exhibited, and in conditions where there was no ambiguity, participants exhibited the greatest amount of wishful thinking

Priors and Desires

This paper offers a simple but powerful model of wishful thinking, cognitive dissonance, and related biases. Choices maximize subjective expected utility, but beliefs depend on the decision maker's interests as well as on relevant information. Simplifying assumptions yield a representation in which the payoff in an event affects beliefs as if it were part of the evidence about its likelihood. A single parameter determines both the direction and weight of this `evidence', with positive values corresponding to optimism and negative values to pessimism. Changes to a person's interests amount to new `evidence', and can alter beliefs even in the absence of new information. The magnitude of the bias increases with the degree of uncertainty and the strength of the decision maker's interests. High stakes can reduce the bias indirectly by increasing incentives to acquire information, but are otherwise consistent with substantial bias. Exploring applications, I show that wishful thinking can lead investors to become progressively more exposed to risk, and that while improved policing unambiguously deters crime, increased punishment may have little or no deterrent value.wishful thinking, cognitive dissonance, reference-dependent beliefs, referencedependentpreferences

Random Guess and Wishful Thinking are the Best Blinding Scenarios.

Blinding is a methodologic safeguard of treatment evaluation, yet severely understudied empirically. Mathieu et al.'s theoretical analysis (2014) provided an important message that blinding cannot eliminate potential for bias associated with belief about allocation in randomized controlled trial; just like the intent-to-treat principle does not guarantee unbiased estimation under noncompliance, the blinded randomized trial as a golden standard may produce bias. They showed possible biases but did not assess how large the bias could be in different scenarios. In this paper, we examined their findings, and numerically assessed and compared the bias in treatment effect parameters by simulation under frequently encountered blinding scenarios, aiming to identify the most ideal blinding scenarios in practice. We conclude that Random Guess and Wishful Thinking (e.g., participants tend to believe they received treatment) are the most ideal blinding scenarios, incurring minimal bias. We also find some evidence that imperfect or partial blinding can be better than no blinding

Appraisal and coping strategy use in victims of school bullying

The aims of the paper are to examine the factor structure of a coping measure that is directly comparable with the adult literature; to examine the content of pupils' threat and challenge appraisals concerning bullying; and to examine the relationships between appraisals and coping strategy use within the victims of school bullying. Halstead et al.'s Revised Ways of Coping Checklist can be used to measure coping amongst child and adolescent victims of bullying. Furthermore, including appraisal variables improves our understanding of individual differences between victims' coping strategy choices

Non-cognitivism and the Problem of Moral-based Epistemic Reasons: A Sympathetic Reply to Cian Dorr

According to Cian Dorr, non-cognitivism has the implausible implication that arguments like the following are cases of wishful thinking: If lying is wrong, then the souls of liars will be punished in the afterlife; lying is wrong; therefore, the souls of liars will be punished in the afterlife. Dorr further claims that if non-cognitivism implies that the above argument and similar arguments are cases of wishful thinking, then non-cognitivism remains implausible even if one solves the so-called Frege-Geach problem. Dorr’s claims have faced a number of objections, but I believe that Dorr is on to something. So, after summarizing Dorr’s argument and briefly describing three flaws in what Dorr claims, I shall present a distinct objection to non-cognitivism and use the preceding to show what Dorr’s argument gets right and what it gets wrong

Sains & Teknologi Dalam Pembinaan Tamadun Islam dan Tamadun Melayu

We want to foster a scientific society, yet we still remain passive consumers and not creators of technology. There can be no room for wishful thinking and complacency. We cannot plan as if future will unfold in a linear manner. It necessitates a more heightened level of commitment from all, nation of Malaysia

Perceptions and correlates of peer-victimization and bullying

The experiences of peer-victimization and bullying are often treated empirically as though they are conceptually indistinct. Both involve repeated aggression,but definitions of bullying additionally emphasize the importance of aggressor intent and imbalance of power between the aggressor and the victim (Olweus, 1978; Whitney & Smith, 1993). The present study aimed to examine the extent to which peer-victimization and bullying are empirically similar. The sample comprised 1,429 pupils (50.2% male) aged between 8 and 13 years attending mainstream Scottish schools. Self-report questionnaire assessing peer-victimization and bullying, copingstrategy use (WCCL: Hunter, 2000), situational appraisal and depressive symptomatology (Birleson, 1981). Almost one-third (30.7%) of pupils reported experiencing peer-victimization, and of these 38.1% (11.7% of whole sample) were categorized as victims of bullying. Victims of bullying perceived higher levels of threat and lower levels of perceived control. They also reported using more Wishful Thinking and Social Support coping strategies, but did not differ on Problem Focused coping. Bullied pupils also reported higher levels of depressive symptomatology. Peer-victimization and bullying appear to be qualitatively different experiences for children and adolescents, with bullying being the more serious phenomenon

The Relationship Between Cognitive Flexibility, Coping, and Symptomatology in Psychotherapy

Cognitive flexibility is broadly defined as the ability to shift perspective or approach in order to adapt to changes in the environment. This implies the abilities to generate alternatives and then to implement effective approaches. High cognitive flexibility has been associated with psychological well-being and effective coping, whereas low flexibility, or rigidity, has been linked to several types of psychopathology. The goal of the current study was to provide exploratory evidence of the utility of a brief, self-report measure of cognitive flexibility in identifying relationships to coping strategies, symptomatology, and treatment duration in a clinical setting. A total of 18 individuals seeking treatment at a university-affiliated mental health clinic participated in the study. Participants completed measures of cognitive flexibility and coping styles. Demographic information and data regarding symptomatology and treatment were gathered from client files. Correlational analyses indicated strong positive relationships between aspects of cognitive flexibility and use of problem-focused coping, suggesting that greater ability to generate and implement effective approaches is linked to greater use of pragmatic strategies to improve a situation. Results also indicated a strong positive correlation between the perceived control over challenging situations and duration of previous therapy. However, no relationship was found between flexibility and symptomatology. These exploratory results provide preliminary evidence for the relationship between cognitive flexibility and aspects of mental health in a clinical setting