An Algorithm for Pattern Discovery in Time Series

We present a new algorithm for discovering patterns in time series and other sequential data. We exhibit a reliable procedure for building the minimal set of hidden, Markovian states that is statistically capable of producing the behavior exhibited in the data -- the underlying process's causal states. Unlike conventional methods for fitting hidden Markov models (HMMs) to data, our algorithm makes no assumptions about the process's causal architecture (the number of hidden states and their transition structure), but rather infers it from the data. It starts with assumptions of minimal structure and introduces complexity only when the data demand it. Moreover, the causal states it infers have important predictive optimality properties that conventional HMM states lack. We introduce the algorithm, review the theory behind it, prove its asymptotic reliability, use large deviation theory to estimate its rate of convergence, and compare it to other algorithms which also construct HMMs from data. We also illustrate its behavior on an example process, and report selected numerical results from an implementation.Comment: 26 pages, 5 figures; 5 tables; http://www.santafe.edu/projects/CompMech Added discussion of algorithm parameters; improved treatment of convergence and time complexity; added comparison to older method

On Hidden States in Quantum Random Walks

It was recently pointed out that identifiability of quantum random walks and hidden Markov processes underlie the same principles. This analogy immediately raises questions on the existence of hidden states also in quantum random walks and their relationship with earlier debates on hidden states in quantum mechanics. The overarching insight was that not only hidden Markov processes, but also quantum random walks are finitary processes. Since finitary processes enjoy nice asymptotic properties, this also encourages to further investigate the asymptotic properties of quantum random walks. Here, answers to all these questions are given. Quantum random walks, hidden Markov processes and finitary processes are put into a unifying model context. In this context, quantum random walks are seen to not only enjoy nice ergodic properties in general, but also intuitive quantum-style asymptotic properties. It is also pointed out how hidden states arising from our framework relate to hidden states in earlier, prominent treatments on topics such as the EPR paradoxon or Bell's inequalities.Comment: 26 page

Asymptotic operating characteristics of an optimal change point detection in hidden Markov models

Let \xi_0,\xi_1,...,\xi_{\omega-1} be observations from the hidden Markov model with probability distribution P^{\theta_0}, and let \xi_{\omega},\xi_{\omega+1},... be observations from the hidden Markov model with probability distribution P^{\theta_1}. The parameters \theta_0 and \theta_1 are given, while the change point \omega is unknown. The problem is to raise an alarm as soon as possible after the distribution changes from P^{\theta_0} to P^{\theta_1}, but to avoid false alarms. Specifically, we seek a stopping rule N which allows us to observe the \xi's sequentially, such that E_{\infty}N is large, and subject to this constraint, sup_kE_k(N-k|N\geq k) is as small as possible. Here E_k denotes expectation under the change point k, and E_{\infty} denotes expectation under the hypothesis of no change whatever. In this paper we investigate the performance of the Shiryayev-Roberts-Pollak (SRP) rule for change point detection in the dynamic system of hidden Markov models. By making use of Markov chain representation for the likelihood function, the structure of asymptotically minimax policy and of the Bayes rule, and sequential hypothesis testing theory for Markov random walks, we show that the SRP procedure is asymptotically minimax in the sense of Pollak [Ann. Statist. 13 (1985) 206-227]. Next, we present a second-order asymptotic approximation for the expected stopping time of such a stopping scheme when \omega=1. Motivated by the sequential analysis in hidden Markov models, a nonlinear renewal theory for Markov random walks is also given.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053604000000580 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org