The Effect of Bid-Ask Prices on Brazilian Options Implied Volatility: A Case Study of Telemar Call Options

Although not explicitly reported, option traders on the Bovespa exchange pay an implicit bid-ask spread on each trade. Reported transaction prices that comprise the databases previously used to study the Brazilian options markets do not reflect actual option values at the time of the trades, but actual values plus (for purchases) or minus (for sales) the bid-ask spread. We use a chooser American option model to estimate Telemar call options bid-ask spreads, and to create a database of spread-adjusted trade prices. We find that the bid-ask spreads explain several previously reported puzzles regarding asset price volatility.

Managing uncertainty:financial, actuarial and statistical modelling.

present value; Value; Actuarial;

Efficiency Costs of Subsidy Rules for Crop Insurance

Participation in federal crop insurance programs has been encouraged through premium subsidies. The current subsidy depends on contract features as well as coverage levels. This type of subsidy rule causes farmers to choose contract designs and coverages that are not efficient for managing risk, in order to capture subsidy. Farmers are found to be as well off with a flat subsidy that is up to 25% less than the value of the current regressive proportional subsidy.crop insurance, futures, risk management, subsidy, Risk and Uncertainty,

The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics

The economics profession appears to have been unaware of the long build-up to the current worldwide financial crisis and to have significantly underestimated its dimensions once it started to unfold. In our view, this lack of understanding is due to a misallocation of research efforts in economics. We trace the deeper roots of this failure to the profession’s focus on models that, by design, disregard key elements driving outcomes in real-world markets. The economics profession has failed in communicating the limitations, weaknesses, and even dangers of its preferred models to the public. This state of affairs makes clear the need for a major reorientation of focus in the research economists undertake, as well as for the establishment of an ethical code that would ask economists to understand and communicate the limitations and potential misuses of their models.financial crisis, academic moral hazard, ethic responsibility of researchers

The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics

The economics profession appears to have been unaware of the long build-up to the current worldwide financial crisis and to have significantly underestimated its dimensions once it started to unfold. In our view, this lack of understanding is due to a misallocation of research efforts in economics. We trace the deeper roots of this failure to the profession’s focus on models that, by design, disregard key elements driving outcomes in real-world markets. The economics profession has failed in communicating the limitations, weaknesses, and even dangers of its preferred models to the public. This state of affairs makes clear the need for a major reorientation of focus in the research economists undertake, as well as for the establishment of an ethical code that would ask economists to understand and communicate the limitations and potential misuses of their models.financial crisis; academic moral hazard; ethic responsibility of researchers

The Dynamic International Optimal Hedge Ratio

Instead of modeling asset price and currency risks separately, this paper derives the international hedge portfolio, hedging asset price and currency risk simultaneously for estimating the dynamic international optimal hedge ratio. The model estimation is specified in a multivariate GARCH setting with vector error correction terms and estimated for the commodity and stock markets of the U.S., the U.K., and Japan.Optimal Hedge Ratio, International Hedging, Multivariate GARCH, Currency

Valuation of American Options and Employee Stock Options

Options play an important role in the financial world and are actively traded with huge trading volume. Most of the options traded on exchanges are American options. Spanning over a few decades, the American option pricing problem continues to intrigue scholars and practitioners in finance. The employee stock options (ESOs), a variant of American options, has been increasingly popular for firms to compensate, motivate and retain employees. ESOs importantly do not trade in markets nevertheless fair value must be determined – often by accountants. Unique features of ESOs however complicate the valuation. Our research, consisting of three papers, focuses on the improved lattice techniques for valuing American options and ESOs. Research paper 1 (Chapter 2) introduces an intelligent lattice search algorithm to efficiently locate the optimal exercise boundary for American options. The computational runtime can be reduced from over 18 minutes down to less than 3 seconds to estimate a 15,000-step CRR binomial tree. Research paper 2 (Chapter 3) introduces a set of lattice techniques to the Leisen-Reimer and Tian binomial models for American options pricing. A level of accuracy and efficiency combined can be achieve that surpass analytical solution models prominent in the literature. Moreover, lattices importantly afford an explicit trade-off locus between accuracy and speed that can be navigated according to predetermined precision tolerance levels and option types. These should have practical relevance to trading platforms that require real-time estimates of implied volatility. Research paper 3 (Chapter 4) proposes adjustments to the Hull-White ESO pricing model, based on insights developed by Boyle-Lau and Tian specifications. The proposed Hull-White-Boyle-Lau and Hull White-Tian revamps expand the practicable menu choice available to stakeholders tasked with the valuation of these ESOs. Accountants, across many jurisdictions, are subjected to higher demands for disclosure and fair valuation. The streamlined valuation approaches developed here may prove ii useful in expanding the tool kit of practicable/workable models. This improved efficiency can be harnessed even at the level of a basic spreadsheet and this this should assist in testing, validating and benchmarking valuation in lattices and in evaluating the newer generation of closed-form solutions emerging in the literature

Effective Basemetal Hedging: The Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedging Horizon

This study investigates optimal hedge ratios in all base metal markets. Using recent hedging computation techniques, we find that 1) the short-run optimal hedging ratio is increasing in hedging horizon, 2) that the long-term horizon limit to the optimal hedging ratio is not converging to one but is slightly higher for most of these markets, and 3) that hedging effectiveness is also increasing in hedging horizon. When hedging with futures in these markets, one should hedge long-term at about 6 to 8 weeks with a slightly greater than one hedge ratio. These results are of interest to many purchasing departments and other commodity hedgers

Developing methods for strategic evaluation in agricultural research and production

We analyze instruments to evaluate investment strategies as new options for co-operatives within the wheat production chain. Using a value-based management the extension of our concept, a “cooperative balanced scorecard” is discussed as we propose the further differentiation of the scorecard’s financial perspective. This is a market development-driven approach as cooperatives may be regarded as commodity-price-intermediators for their members. Proposing this approach we use a simple model of conjoint-hedging in intermediating firms within agribusiness.Agribusiness, Wheat Production, Cooperatives, Intermediation, Value-based Management, Commodity Markets., Agricultural and Food Policy,