5 research outputs found
Resilient Grid Operation by Integrating Photovoltaic Generation, Mobile Electric Vehicle Battery Energy Storage, and Fixed Battery Energy Storage
The widespread utilization of photovoltaic (PV) generation, and battery energy storage (BES) in mobile (Electrical Vehicles-EVs) and fixed form is bringing opportunities, as well as challenges to the power grid operation.
To handle the uncertainties brought by EV BES, and PV generation, we propose to improve the system predictability through: 1) an analytical way to estimate the aggregated EVs BES power capacity for charging/discharging, considering factors such as EVsβ mobility, driversβ stochastic behavior, energy need for future travel, etc.; and 2) an improved PV generation forecast based on Gaussian Conditional Random Fields (GCRF) method, which models both the spatial and temporal correlations in different graphs and works well even with missing or unavailable data.
One of the opportunities is to improve the system flexibility by utilizing the relatively high ramping capability of mobile (EV) and fixed BES given their quite adjustable operation modes (charging and discharging). This dissertation presents a model to integrate EVs and fixed BES into the ramp market with two types of participation: a) direct participation, and b) collaboration with conventional generators. By providing the ramp service in the electricity market, EVs and fixed BES can help the power grid better handle the short term net-load variability and uncertainty. On the other hand, EVs and fixed BES do not have to charge and discharge very frequently, while their fast ramping capability can still get rewarded. Also, the limitation on the energy capacity of EVs and fixed BES can be relieved to some extent.
As another opportunity, the integration of PV generation and fixed BES can also help the system in face of some unknowable uncertainties, such as the extreme event. The energy stored in the BES and generated by the PV panel can serve as the emergency power supply. Also, they are located in a more scattered manner than the conventional generators, which enables their capacity to be more accessible under the extreme conditions. This dissertation proposes an optimal allocation scheme of PV generation and fixed BES aiming at improving the system resilience, considering the unknowable nature of extreme events
Development of an integrated model for congestion prediction and determination of optimal number of active channels in module
ΠΠΎΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΡΠΈΡ
Π³ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠ½Π° Π²Π΅Π»ΠΈΠΊΠΈ Π±ΡΠΎΡ ΠΈΡΡΡΠ°ΠΆΠΈΠ²Π°ΡΠ° ΡΠ΅ ΡΡΠΌΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ ΠΊΠ° ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΠΊΡΠΈΡΠΈ ΡΠ°ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°ΡΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
Π³ΡΠΆΠ²ΠΈ. Π Π°Π·Π»ΠΈΡΠΈΡΠ΅ ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Π΅ Π½ΠΈΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°Π»Π΅ Π·Π½Π°ΡΠ°ΡΠ°Π½ Π΄ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΠ½ΠΎΡ Ρ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΈΠΌ
ΠΏΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ°Π½ΡΠ°ΠΌΠ° ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΠΊΡΠΈΡΠ΅ Π³ΡΠΆΠ²ΠΈ. Π‘ΡΠΎΠ³Π° ΡΠ΅ Π΄Π°Π½Π°Ρ ΡΠ²Π΅ ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ΅ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ Π°Π»Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΡΠΌΠΈ
ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΠ½ΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ° Ρ ΡΠΈΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠ° Π·Π°Π΄ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡΠ°Π²Π°ΡΡΡΠΈΡ
ΡΠ΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΠ°ΡΠ° ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΠΊΡΠΈΡΠ΅. Π£ ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡ
Π΄ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠΈ, ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΡΠ°Π²ΡΠ΅Π½Π° ΡΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ° Π·Π° ΠΊΠ»Π°ΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡ Π³ΡΠΆΠ²ΠΈ Π½Π° Π±Π°Π·ΠΈ
Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠ΅Π½ΠΎΠ³ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π° ΠΠ°ΡΡΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ
ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²Π½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΡΠ° Π·Π° ΡΡΡΠΊΡΡΡΠ½Ρ Π±ΠΈΠ½Π°ΡΠ½Ρ
ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΠΊΡΠΈΡΡ (GCRFBC). ΠΡΡΠ° ΡΠ΅ ΡΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ½ΠΎ ΠΈΠΌΠΏΠ»Π΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΡΠ°Π½Π° Π½Π° ΡΠ΅Π°Π»Π½Π΅ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠ΅
ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π²ΠΈΡΠ°ΡΠ° Π³ΡΠΆΠ²ΠΈ. ΠΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Π»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ° ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅ Π±ΠΈΡΠΈ ΡΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ½ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½Π° Π½Π° ΠΊΠ»Π°ΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π΅
ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠ΅ ΠΎΠΏΠΈΡΠ°Π½Π΅ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠΌΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΌ Π³ΡΠ°ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΈΠΌΠ° ΠΊΠΎΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅ Π½Π΅ ΠΌΠΎΠ³Ρ Π΅ΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎ ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΠΈ
ΡΡΠ°Π½Π΄Π°ΡΠ΄Π½ΠΈΠΌ ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²Π½ΠΈΠΌ ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΌ ΠΏΠΎΡΠΈΠΌΠ° (CRF). ΠΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π», ΠΊΠΎΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅Π½ Ρ
ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠΈ, ΡΠ΅ Π·Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ Π½Π° ΡΡΠ°Π½Π΄Π°ΡΠ΄Π½ΠΈΠΌ ΠΠ°ΡΡΠΎΠ²ΠΈΠΌ ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²Π½ΠΈΠΌ ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΌ ΠΏΠΎΡΠΈΠΌΠ° Π·Π°
ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΡ (GCRF) ΠΊΠΎΡΠ° ΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠΈΡΠ΅Π½Π° Π»Π°ΡΠ΅Π½ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΌ ΠΏΡΠΎΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΠ²ΠΈΠΌ ΡΡΠΎ Π΄Π°ΡΠ΅ Π±ΡΠΎΡΠ½Π΅
ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΈΡΡΠΎΠΌ. ΠΠ°Ρ
Π²Π°ΡΡΡΡΡΠΈ Π»Π°ΡΠ΅Π½ΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΡΡΡΡΠΊΡΡΡΠΈ, ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅ ΠΈ Π·Π°ΠΊΡΡΡΠΈΠ²Π°ΡΠ΅ Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ Π½Π΅
Π·Π°Ρ
ΡΠ΅Π²Π° ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ»ΠΈΠΊΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π΅ Π½ΡΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠ΅ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΡΠ΅, Π²Π΅Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅ Π±ΠΈΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΎ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΡΠΈΡΠΊΠΈ. ΠΠΎΡΠ΅Π΄
ΡΠΎΠ³Π°, ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠΎΡΠ°ΡΠ΅ Π»Π°ΡΠ΅Π½ΡΠ½Π΅ ΡΡΡΡΠΊΡΡΡΠ΅ ΠΎΠΌΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ°Π²Π° Π΄Π° ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π» Π±ΡΠ΄Π΅ ΠΎΡΠ²ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ ΠΊΠ° Π΄Π°ΡΠΈΠΌ
ΠΏΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΌΠ°. Π’ΡΠΈ ΡΠ°Π·Π»ΠΈΡΠΈΡΠ° Π°Π»Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΡΠΌΠ° ΡΡ ΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠ΅Π½Π°: GCRFBCb (GCRFBC β
ΠΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠΊΠΈ), GCRFBCb-fast (GCRFBC β ΠΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠΊΠΈ ΡΠ° Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠΎΠΌ) ΠΈ GCRFBCnb
(GCRFBC β Π½Π΅-ΠΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠΊΠΈ). ΠΡΠΎΡΠΈΡΠ΅Π½Π° ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Π° Π»ΠΎΠΊΠ°Π»Π½Π΅ Π²Π°ΡΠΈΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π΅ Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅
ΡΠΈΠ³ΠΌΠΎΠΈΠ΄Π½Π΅ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΡΠ΅ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅Π½Π° ΡΠ΅ Π·Π° ΡΠ΅ΡΠ°Π²Π°ΡΠ΅ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»Π° ΠΏΠΎ Π»Π°ΡΠ΅Π½ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΌ ΠΏΡΠΎΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΠ²ΠΈΠΌ Ρ
ΠΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠΊΠΎΡ Π²Π΅ΡΠ·ΠΈΡΠΈ GCRFBC ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π°. Π£ ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΡ Π½Π΅-ΠΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ GCRFBC ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π° Ρ ΡΡΠ΅ΡΡ
ΠΈ Π·Π°ΠΊΡΡΡΠΈΠ²Π°ΡΡ ΡΠ΅ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅Π½Π° Π»Π°ΡΠ΅Π½ΡΠ½Π° ΠΏΡΠΎΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΠ²Π° ΡΠ° ΠΌΠ°ΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»Π½ΠΎΠΌ Π²ΡΠ΅Π΄Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ
ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΡΠ΅ Π³ΡΡΡΠΈΠ½Π΅ Π²Π΅ΡΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΠ΅. ΠΠ°ΠΊΡΡΡΠΈΠ²Π°ΡΠ΅ Ρ GCRFBCb ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ ΡΠ΅ ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΎ
ΠΊΠΎΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌ ΠΡΡΠ½-ΠΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΈΠΌ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΡΠ»Π°ΠΌΠ° Π·Π° ΡΠ΅Π΄Π½ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Π·ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Π»Π½Ρ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡ. Π£ΡΠ»Π΅Π΄
Π²Π΅Π»ΠΈΠΊΠΎΠ³ Π±ΡΠΎΡΠ° Π²Π°ΡΠΈΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠ°ΡΠ°ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠ°ΡΠ°, ΡΠ°ΡΡΠ½ΡΠΊΠΈ ΡΡΠΎΡΠ°ΠΊ ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ° ΡΠ΅ Π²Π΅Π»ΠΈΠΊΠΈ, ΡΡΠΎΠ³Π° ΡΠ΅
ΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠ΅Π½Π° Π±ΡΠ·Π° Π²Π΅ΡΠ·ΠΈΡΠ° ΠΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ GCRFBC ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π°. ΠΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ°Π½ΡΠ΅ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π° ΡΡ Π΅Π²Π°Π»ΡΠΈΡΠ°Π½Π΅
Π½Π° ΡΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠΈΠΌ ΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π°Π»Π½ΠΈΠΌ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Π°ΡΠΈΠΌΠ°. ΠΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°Π½ΠΎ ΡΠ΅ Π΄Π° ΡΠ΅ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½ΠΎΠΌ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Π»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ ΠΎΡΡΠ²Π°ΡΡΡΡ
Π±ΠΎΡΠ΅ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ°Π½ΡΠ΅ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π²ΠΈΡΠ°ΡΠ° Π³ΡΠΆΠ²ΠΈ Ρ ΠΏΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΡΡ ΡΠ° Π½Π΅ΡΡΡΡΠΊΡΡΡΠ½ΠΈΠΌ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈΠΌΠ°. ΠΠΎΠ΄Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎ
ΡΡ Π΅Π²Π°Π»ΡΠΈΡΠ°Π½ΠΈ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠ½ΡΠΊΠΈ ΠΈ ΠΌΠ΅ΠΌΠΎΡΠΈΡΡΠΊΠΈ ΡΡΠΎΡΠΊΠΎΠ²ΠΈ. ΠΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ° ΡΠ΅ Π³Π΅Π½Π΅ΡΠ°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π° Π½Π°
ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅ΡΠ΅ ΠΈΠ· Π΄ΡΡΠ³ΠΈΡ
Π΄ΠΎΠΌΠ΅Π½Π°. ΠΠ΅ΡΠ°ΡΠ½Π΅ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΈ ΠΌΠ°Π½Π΅ ΡΠ²ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ
ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π° ΡΡ
Π½Π°Π³Π»Π°ΡΠ΅Π½Π΅. Π£ Π΄ΡΡΠ³ΠΎΠΌ Π΄Π΅Π»Ρ Π΄ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ ΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠ΅Π½a ΡΠ΅ Ρ
ΠΈΠ±ΡΠΈΠ΄Π½Π° ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Π»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ° Π·Π° ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π²ΠΈΡΠ°ΡΠ΅
ΠΈΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΎΡΠ° ΡΠ°ΠΎΠ±Π°ΡΠ°ΡΠ° ΠΊΠΎΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅ Π·Π°ΡΠ½ΠΈΠ²Π° Π½Π° ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠ±ΠΈΠ½Π°ΡΠΈΡΠΈ ΠΠ°ΡΡΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ
ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²Π½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΡΠ° Π·Π° ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΡ ΠΈ ΠΊΠ»Π°ΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡ. Π£ΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ° ΡΡΡΡΠΊΡΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π°,
ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ° ΡΠ΅ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΈΡΡΠΈ Π·Π° ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π²ΠΈΡΠ°ΡΠ΅ ΠΈΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΎΡΠ° ΡΠ°ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°ΡΠ°ΡΠ° Π½Π° Π²ΠΈΡΠ΅ ΠΈΠ·Π»Π°Π·Π° ΠΊΠΎΡΠΈ ΡΡ
ΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΡΠΎΠ±Π½ΠΎ Π·Π°Π²ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈ. ΠΠΎΡΠ΅Π΄ ΡΠΎΠ³Π°, ΠΎΠ±Π΅Π·Π±Π΅ΡΡΡΠ΅ ΡΠ΅ ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅ ΠΈΠ· ΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Π°ΡΠ°ΠΊΠ°, ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎ
ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Π°ΡΠ°ΠΊΠ° Π³Π΄Π΅ ΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΈ ΠΈΠ·Π»Π°Π·ΠΈ Π½Π΅ΠΌΠ°ΡΡ Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΠΊΠ°Π²Ρ Π²ΡΠ΅Π΄Π½ΠΎΡΡ (Π½ΠΈΡΡΠ°). ΠΠ»Π°ΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½ΠΈ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»
ΡΠ»ΡΠΆΠΈ Π·Π° Π΅Π»ΠΈΠΌΠΈΠ½ΠΈΡΠ°ΡΠ΅ ΠΈΠ·Π»Π°Π·Π° ΡΠ° Π²ΡΠ΅Π΄Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈΠΌΠ° Π½ΠΈΡΡΠ°, Π΄ΠΎΠΊ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½ΠΈ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π» ΡΠ»ΡΠΆΠΈ Π·Π°
ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π²ΠΈΡΠ°ΡΠ΅ ΠΈΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΎΡΠ° ΡΠ°ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°ΡΠ°ΡΠ° Π½Π° ΠΎΠ½ΠΈΠΌ ΠΈΠ·Π»Π°Π·ΠΈΠΌΠ° ΠΊΠΎΡΠΈ Π½Π΅ΠΌΠ°ΡΡ Π²ΡΠ΅Π΄Π½ΠΎΡΡ Π½ΠΈΡΡΠ°.
ΠΠ½ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ ΠΎ ΠΈΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΎΡΠΈΠΌΠ° ΡΠ°ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°ΡΠ°ΡΠ° ΠΎΠΌΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ°Π²Π°ΡΡ Π΅ΡΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠ°Π½ ΠΌΠΎΠ½ΠΈΡΠΎΡΠΈΠ½Π³ ΡΠ°ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°ΡΠ°ΡΠ°,
ΡΠΏΡΠ°Π²ΡΠ°ΡΠ΅, ΠΏΠ»Π°Π½ΠΈΡΠ°ΡΠ΅ ΠΊΠ°ΠΎ ΠΈ Π΄ΠΎΠ½ΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ° ΠΊΠΎΡΠ΅ ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΊΠ΅ Ρ ΡΠ°ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°ΡΠ°ΡΡ ΠΌΠΎΠ³Ρ
Π΄Π° Π½Π°Π²Π΅Π΄Ρ Π½Π° ΠΏΡΡΠ°ΡΠ΅ Π³Π΄Π΅ Π³ΡΠΆΠ²Π΅ ΠΌΠΎΠ³Ρ Π΄Π° ΡΠ΅ Π·Π°ΠΎΠ±ΠΈΡΡ. ΠΡΠ΅Π΄Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΈ ΠΌΠ°Π½Π΅ Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠ΅Π½Π΅
ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Π»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΊΠ°Π·Π°Π½Π΅ ΡΡ Π½Π° Π΄Π²Π° ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅ΡΠ°. ΠΡΠ²ΠΈ ΡΠ΅ ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π²ΠΈΡΠ°ΡΠ° Π³ΡΠΆΠ²ΠΈ Π½Π° Π°ΡΡΠΎ-ΠΏΡΡΡ
E70-E75 ΠΊΠΎΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ»Π°Π·ΠΈ ΠΊΡΠΎΠ· Π‘ΡΠ±ΠΈΡΡ, Π΄ΠΎΠΊ ΡΠ΅ Π΄ΡΡΠ³ΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌ Π²Π΅Π·Π°Π½ Π·Π° ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π²ΠΈΡΠ°ΡΠ΅ Π³ΡΠΆΠ²ΠΈ Π½Π°
ΡΠΊΠΈ-ΡΠ΅Π½ΡΡΡ ΠΠΎΠΏΠ°ΠΎΠ½ΠΈΠΊ. Π£ ΠΏΠΎΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΡΠ΅ΠΌ Π΄Π΅Π»Ρ Π΄ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ ΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠ΅Π½Π° ΡΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ° Π·Π°3
ΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ²Π°ΡΠ° ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»Π½ΠΎΠ³ Π±ΡΠΎΡΠ° Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΈΡ
ΠΊΠ°Π½Π°Π»Π° Ρ Π±ΡΠ΄ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ. ΠΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ° ΡΠ΅ Π·Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π°
Π½Π° ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠ±ΠΈΠ½Π°ΡΠΈΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΡΠ΅Π½ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
Π½Π΅ΡΡΠΎΠ½ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΌΡΠ΅ΠΆΠ°, ΡΠ΅ΠΎΡΠΈΡΠ΅ ΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π° ΡΠ΅ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ° ΠΈ
ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠ°Ρ
Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΊΠ° Ρ ΡΠΈΡΡ ΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ²Π°ΡΠ° ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»Π½ΠΎΠ³ Π±ΡΠΎΡΠ° Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΈΡ
ΠΊΠ°Π½Π°Π»Π° Ρ Π±ΡΠ΄ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ.
ΠΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ° ΡΠ΅ Π±Π°Π·ΠΈΡΠ° Π½Π° ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π²ΠΈΡΠ°ΡΡ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π½Π·ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠ° Π΄ΠΎΠ»Π°Π·Π°ΠΊΠ° ΠΈ ΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ²Π°ΡΡ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π½Π·ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠ°
ΠΎΠΏΡΠ»ΡΠΆΠΈΠ²Π°ΡΠ° Ρ Π½Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠΌ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΠΎΠ΄Ρ Ρ Π±ΡΠ΄ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ. ΠΠΎΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΠΌ ΡΠΈΡ
ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π½Π·ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠ° Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈΠΌΠ°
ΡΠ΅ΠΎΡΠΈΡΠ΅ ΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π° ΡΠ΅ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ°, ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ°Π²ΡΠ° ΡΠ΅ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΡΠ° ΡΠΈΡΠ° ΠΊΠΎΡΠ° ΡΠ΅ ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠΈΠ·ΡΡΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΡΠ²ΠΎΠΌ
ΠΈΠ·Π±ΠΎΡΠ° Π±ΡΠΎΡΠ° Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΈΡ
ΠΊΠ°Π½Π°Π»Π° Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ»Ρ. ΠΡΠΈΠΊΠ°Π·Π°Π½Π° ΡΡ Π΄Π²Π° Π°Π»Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΡΠΌΠ°: ΠΏΡΠ²ΠΈ Π·Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ Π½Π°
Π½Π΅-ΠΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠΊΠΎΠΌ ΠΏΡΠΈΡΡΡΠΏΡ ΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ²Π°ΡΠ° Π±ΡΠΎΡΠ° Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΈΡ
ΠΊΠ°Π½Π°Π»Π° Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ»Ρ ΠΈ Π΄ΡΡΠ³ΠΈ Π·Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½
Π½Π° ΠΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠΊΠΎΠΌ ΠΏΡΠΈΡΡΡΠΏΡ. ΠΠ° ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅ΡΡ ΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ²Π°ΡΠ° ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»Π½ΠΎΠ³ Π±ΡΠΎΡΠ° Π½Π°ΠΏΠ»Π°ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΏΠΈ
ΠΊΠΎΡΠΈ ΡΡΠ΅Π±Π° Π΄Π° Π±ΡΠ΄Π΅ ΠΎΡΠ²ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ Ρ Π±ΡΠ΄ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π½Π° Π½Π°ΠΏΠ»Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΈΡΠΈ ΠΡΡΠΈΠ½ Π²Π΅ΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΊΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π° ΡΠ΅
ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Π° ΠΈΡΡΠ΅. ΠΠΎΠΆΠ΅ ΡΠ΅ Π²ΠΈΠ΄Π΅ΡΠΈ Π΄Π° Ρ ΡΠ²ΠΈΠΌ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΡΠ°Π½ΠΈΠΌ ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΠ΅Π²ΠΈΠΌΠ°, ΡΠ΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΠ°ΡΠΈ Π΄ΠΎΠ±ΠΈΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈ
Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠ΅Π½ΠΎΠΌ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠΎΠΌ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·ΡΡΡ Π½Π΅ΡΠΏΠΎΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΈΠ²ΠΎ Π½ΠΈΠΆΠ΅ ΠΎΡΠ΅ΠΊΠΈΠ²Π°Π½Π΅ ΡΠΊΡΠΏΠ½Π΅ ΡΡΠΎΡΠΊΠΎΠ²Π΅
Ρ ΠΏΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΡΡ ΡΠ° ΡΡΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠΌ ΡΡΡΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΡΠΎΠΌ ΠΎΡΠ²Π°ΡΠ°ΡΠ° Π½Π°ΠΏΠ»Π°ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΏΠΈ.In the recent years, research committed in the field of congestion prediction present one of the
most popular area of interest. A variety of novel methods for congestion prediction based on
unstructured statistical (machine) learning have become the standard for congestion prediction.
However, in this dissertaion I argue that structured machine (statistical) learning algorithms
can significantly improve congestion prediction performances. In this dissertation, a Gaussian
conditional random field model for structured binary classification (GCRFBC) is proposed for
solving problems of congestion prediction. The model is applicable to classification problems
with undirected graphs, intractable for standard classification CRFs. The model representation
of GCRFBC is extended by latent variables which yield some appealing properties. Thanks to
the GCRF latent structure, the model becomes tractable, efficient and open to improvements
previously applied to GCRF regression models. In addition, the model allows for reduction of
noise, that might appear if structures were defined directly between discrete outputs. Three
different forms of the algorithm are presented: GCRFBCb (GCRGBC - Bayesian), GCRFBCbfast (GCRGBC - Bayesian approximation) and GCRFBCnb (GCRFBC - non-Bayesian). The
extended method of local variational approximation of sigmoid function is used for solving
empirical Bayes in Bayesian GCRFBCb variant, whereas MAP value of latent variables is the
basis for learning and inference in the GCRFBCnb variant. The inference in GCRFBCb is
solved by Newton-Cotes formulas for one-dimensional integration. Due to large numbers of
variational parameters the computational costs of learning is significant, so fast version of
GCRFBCb model is derived (GCRFBCb-fast). Models are evaluated on synthetic data and real
data. It was shown that models achieve better congestion prediction performance than
unstructured predictors. Furthermore, computational and memory complexity is evaluated. The
generalization of the proposed models on other problems are discussed in details. Moreover, in
the second part of this dissertation a hybrid model of two Gaussian Conditional Random Fields
models (one recently proposed for classification, and one for regression) for inference of traffic
speed, a relevant variable for traffic state estimation and travel information systems is
proposed. It addresses two specifics of the problem - sparsity in traffic data and the fact that
observations are not independent. It does so by combining a Gaussian conditional random field
binary classification (GCRFBC) model (for gating of free-flow regimes and potentially
congested traffic regimes) and a regression Gaussian conditional random field (GCRF) model
with varying structure of nodes for prediction of traffic speed in dependent variables of
potentially congested traffic regimes only. The information provided by the model can help in
traffic monitoring, control, and planning, as well in congestion mitigation by providing
information for avoiding congested routes. The proposed model is tested on two large-scale
networks in Serbia, an arterial E70-E75 335km long highway stretch as well as in the ski resort
Kopaonik with 55 km of ski slopes. The advantages and disadvantages of hybrid model is
shown. In the last section of dissertation methodology for determination of optimal number of
active channels in module is developed. Methodology is based on combination of recurrent
neural networks, queuing theory and metaheuristics. Recurrent neural networks are used for
prediction of arrival intensity and estimation of service intensity in some period in future. The
predicted intensities are used in queuing theory models in order to develop objective function5
that has to be minimized. Two different algorithms are presented: the first one is based on nonBayesian and the second one is based on Bayesian approach. The application of methodology
is presented on the example of pay toll ramp optimization on pay toll station VrΔin. In all
analyzed cases the estimated total costs are significantly reduced compared to current polic