An Induced Natural Selection Heuristic for Finding Optimal Bayesian Experimental Designs

Bayesian optimal experimental design has immense potential to inform the collection of data so as to subsequently enhance our understanding of a variety of processes. However, a major impediment is the difficulty in evaluating optimal designs for problems with large, or high-dimensional, design spaces. We propose an efficient search heuristic suitable for general optimisation problems, with a particular focus on optimal Bayesian experimental design problems. The heuristic evaluates the objective (utility) function at an initial, randomly generated set of input values. At each generation of the algorithm, input values are "accepted" if their corresponding objective (utility) function satisfies some acceptance criteria, and new inputs are sampled about these accepted points. We demonstrate the new algorithm by evaluating the optimal Bayesian experimental designs for the previously considered death, pharmacokinetic and logistic regression models. Comparisons to the current "gold-standard" method are given to demonstrate the proposed algorithm as a computationally-efficient alternative for moderately-large design problems (i.e., up to approximately 40-dimensions)

Dynamic Intrusion Detection in Resource-Constrained Cyber Networks

We consider a large-scale cyber network with N components (e.g., paths, servers, subnets). Each component is either in a healthy state (0) or an abnormal state (1). Due to random intrusions, the state of each component transits from 0 to 1 over time according to certain stochastic process. At each time, a subset of K (K < N) components are checked and those observed in abnormal states are fixed. The objective is to design the optimal scheduling for intrusion detection such that the long-term network cost incurred by all abnormal components is minimized. We formulate the problem as a special class of Restless Multi-Armed Bandit (RMAB) process. A general RMAB suffers from the curse of dimensionality (PSPACE-hard) and numerical methods are often inapplicable. We show that, for this class of RMAB, Whittle index exists and can be obtained in closed form, leading to a low-complexity implementation of Whittle index policy with a strong performance. For homogeneous components, Whittle index policy is shown to have a simple structure that does not require any prior knowledge on the intrusion processes. Based on this structure, Whittle index policy is further shown to be optimal over a finite time horizon with an arbitrary length. Beyond intrusion detection, these results also find applications in queuing networks with finite-size buffers.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure

An Online Approach to Dynamic Channel Access and Transmission Scheduling

Making judicious channel access and transmission scheduling decisions is essential for improving performance as well as energy and spectral efficiency in multichannel wireless systems. This problem has been a subject of extensive study in the past decade, and the resulting dynamic and opportunistic channel access schemes can bring potentially significant improvement over traditional schemes. However, a common and severe limitation of these dynamic schemes is that they almost always require some form of a priori knowledge of the channel statistics. A natural remedy is a learning framework, which has also been extensively studied in the same context, but a typical learning algorithm in this literature seeks only the best static policy, with performance measured by weak regret, rather than learning a good dynamic channel access policy. There is thus a clear disconnect between what an optimal channel access policy can achieve with known channel statistics that actively exploits temporal, spatial and spectral diversity, and what a typical existing learning algorithm aims for, which is the static use of a single channel devoid of diversity gain. In this paper we bridge this gap by designing learning algorithms that track known optimal or sub-optimal dynamic channel access and transmission scheduling policies, thereby yielding performance measured by a form of strong regret, the accumulated difference between the reward returned by an optimal solution when a priori information is available and that by our online algorithm. We do so in the context of two specific algorithms that appeared in [1] and [2], respectively, the former for a multiuser single-channel setting and the latter for a single-user multichannel setting. In both cases we show that our algorithms achieve sub-linear regret uniform in time and outperforms the standard weak-regret learning algorithms.Comment: 10 pages, to appear in MobiHoc 201

Characteristics of the polymer transport in ratchet systems

Molecules with complex internal structure in time-dependent periodic potentials are studied by using short Rubinstein-Duke model polymers as an example. We extend our earlier work on transport in stochastically varying potentials to cover also deterministic potential switching mechanisms, energetic efficiency and non-uniform charge distributions. We also use currents in the non-equilibrium steady state to identify the dominating mechanisms that lead to polymer transportation and analyze the evolution of the macroscopic state (e.g., total and head-to-head lengths) of the polymers. Several numerical methods are used to solve the master equations and nonlinear optimization problems. The dominating transport mechanisms are found via graph optimization methods. The results show that small changes in the molecule structure and the environment variables can lead to large increases of the drift. The drift and the coherence can be amplified by using deterministic flashing potentials and customized polymer charge distributions. Identifying the dominating transport mechanism by graph analysis tools is found to give insight in how the molecule is transported by the ratchet effect.Comment: 35 pages, 17 figures, to appear in Phys. Rev.

Reinforcement Learning: A Survey

This paper surveys the field of reinforcement learning from a computer-science perspective. It is written to be accessible to researchers familiar with machine learning. Both the historical basis of the field and a broad selection of current work are summarized. Reinforcement learning is the problem faced by an agent that learns behavior through trial-and-error interactions with a dynamic environment. The work described here has a resemblance to work in psychology, but differs considerably in the details and in the use of the word ``reinforcement.'' The paper discusses central issues of reinforcement learning, including trading off exploration and exploitation, establishing the foundations of the field via Markov decision theory, learning from delayed reinforcement, constructing empirical models to accelerate learning, making use of generalization and hierarchy, and coping with hidden state. It concludes with a survey of some implemented systems and an assessment of the practical utility of current methods for reinforcement learning.Comment: See http://www.jair.org/ for any accompanying file

The History of the Quantitative Methods in Finance Conference Series. 1992-2007

This report charts the history of the Quantitative Methods in Finance (QMF) conference from its beginning in 1993 to the 15th conference in 2007. It lists alphabetically the 1037 speakers who presented at all 15 conferences and the titles of their papers.