Optimal inference in a class of regression models

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for a linear functional of a regression function, such as its value at a point, the regression discontinuity parameter, or a regression coefficient in a linear or partly linear regression. Our main assumption is that the regression function is known to lie in a convex function class, which covers most smoothness and/or shape assumptions used in econometrics. We derive finite-sample optimal CIs and sharp efficiency bounds under normal errors with known variance. We show that these results translate to uniform (over the function class) asymptotic results when the error distribution is not known. When the function class is centrosymmetric, these efficiency bounds imply that minimax CIs are close to efficient at smooth regression functions. This implies, in particular, that it is impossible to form CIs that are tighter using data-dependent tuning parameters, and maintain coverage over the whole function class. We specialize our results to inference on the regression discontinuity parameter, and illustrate them in simulations and an empirical application.Comment: 39 pages plus supplementary material

On Degrees of Freedom of Projection Estimators with Applications to Multivariate Nonparametric Regression

In this paper, we consider the nonparametric regression problem with multivariate predictors. We provide a characterization of the degrees of freedom and divergence for estimators of the unknown regression function, which are obtained as outputs of linearly constrained quadratic optimization procedures, namely, minimizers of the least squares criterion with linear constraints and/or quadratic penalties. As special cases of our results, we derive explicit expressions for the degrees of freedom in many nonparametric regression problems, e.g., bounded isotonic regression, multivariate (penalized) convex regression, and additive total variation regularization. Our theory also yields, as special cases, known results on the degrees of freedom of many well-studied estimators in the statistics literature, such as ridge regression, Lasso and generalized Lasso. Our results can be readily used to choose the tuning parameter(s) involved in the estimation procedure by minimizing the Stein's unbiased risk estimate. As a by-product of our analysis we derive an interesting connection between bounded isotonic regression and isotonic regression on a general partially ordered set, which is of independent interest.Comment: 72 pages, 7 figures, Journal of the American Statistical Association (Theory and Methods), 201

Nonparametric estimation by convex programming

The problem we concentrate on is as follows: given (1) a convex compact set $X$ in ${\mathbb{R}}^n$, an affine mapping $x\mapsto A(x)$, a parametric family $\{p_{\mu}(\cdot)\}$ of probability densities and (2) $N$ i.i.d. observations of the random variable $\omega$, distributed with the density $p_{A(x)}(\cdot)$ for some (unknown) $x\in X$, estimate the value $g^Tx$ of a given linear form at $x$. For several families $\{p_{\mu}(\cdot)\}$ with no additional assumptions on $X$ and $A$, we develop computationally efficient estimation routines which are minimax optimal, within an absolute constant factor. We then apply these routines to recovering $x$ itself in the Euclidean norm.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOS654 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

An adaptation theory for nonparametric confidence intervals

A nonparametric adaptation theory is developed for the construction of confidence intervals for linear functionals. A between class modulus of continuity captures the expected length of adaptive confidence intervals. Sharp lower bounds are given for the expected length and an ordered modulus of continuity is used to construct adaptive confidence procedures which are within a constant factor of the lower bounds. In addition, minimax theory over nonconvex parameter spaces is developed.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053604000000049 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

On the minimax optimality and superiority of deep neural network learning over sparse parameter spaces

Deep learning has been applied to various tasks in the field of machine learning and has shown superiority to other common procedures such as kernel methods. To provide a better theoretical understanding of the reasons for its success, we discuss the performance of deep learning and other methods on a nonparametric regression problem with a Gaussian noise. Whereas existing theoretical studies of deep learning have been based mainly on mathematical theories of well-known function classes such as H\"{o}lder and Besov classes, we focus on function classes with discontinuity and sparsity, which are those naturally assumed in practice. To highlight the effectiveness of deep learning, we compare deep learning with a class of linear estimators representative of a class of shallow estimators. It is shown that the minimax risk of a linear estimator on the convex hull of a target function class does not differ from that of the original target function class. This results in the suboptimality of linear methods over a simple but non-convex function class, on which deep learning can attain nearly the minimax-optimal rate. In addition to this extreme case, we consider function classes with sparse wavelet coefficients. On these function classes, deep learning also attains the minimax rate up to log factors of the sample size, and linear methods are still suboptimal if the assumed sparsity is strong. We also point out that the parameter sharing of deep neural networks can remarkably reduce the complexity of the model in our setting.Comment: 33 page