28,633 research outputs found
Revisiting Guerry's data: Introducing spatial constraints in multivariate analysis
Standard multivariate analysis methods aim to identify and summarize the main
structures in large data sets containing the description of a number of
observations by several variables. In many cases, spatial information is also
available for each observation, so that a map can be associated to the
multivariate data set. Two main objectives are relevant in the analysis of
spatial multivariate data: summarizing covariation structures and identifying
spatial patterns. In practice, achieving both goals simultaneously is a
statistical challenge, and a range of methods have been developed that offer
trade-offs between these two objectives. In an applied context, this
methodological question has been and remains a major issue in community
ecology, where species assemblages (i.e., covariation between species
abundances) are often driven by spatial processes (and thus exhibit spatial
patterns). In this paper we review a variety of methods developed in community
ecology to investigate multivariate spatial patterns. We present different ways
of incorporating spatial constraints in multivariate analysis and illustrate
these different approaches using the famous data set on moral statistics in
France published by Andr\'{e}-Michel Guerry in 1833. We discuss and compare the
properties of these different approaches both from a practical and theoretical
viewpoint.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS356 the Annals of
Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Clustering student skill set profiles in a unit hypercube using mixtures of multivariate betas
<br>This paper presents a finite mixture of multivariate betas as a new model-based clustering method tailored to applications where the feature space is constrained to the unit hypercube. The mixture component densities are taken to be conditionally independent, univariate unimodal beta densities (from the subclass of reparameterized beta densities given by Bagnato and Punzo 2013). The EM algorithm used to fit this mixture is discussed in detail, and results from both this beta mixture model and the more standard Gaussian model-based clustering are presented for simulated skill mastery data from a common cognitive diagnosis model and for real data from the Assistment System online mathematics tutor (Feng et al 2009). The multivariate beta mixture appears to outperform the standard Gaussian model-based clustering approach, as would be expected on the constrained space. Fewer components are selected (by BIC-ICL) in the beta mixture than in the Gaussian mixture, and the resulting clusters seem more reasonable and interpretable.</br>
<br>This article is in technical report form, the final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.com/openurl.asp?genre=article &id=doi:10.1007/s11634-013-0149-z</br>
Autoregressive Kernels For Time Series
We propose in this work a new family of kernels for variable-length time
series. Our work builds upon the vector autoregressive (VAR) model for
multivariate stochastic processes: given a multivariate time series x, we
consider the likelihood function p_{\theta}(x) of different parameters \theta
in the VAR model as features to describe x. To compare two time series x and
x', we form the product of their features p_{\theta}(x) p_{\theta}(x') which is
integrated out w.r.t \theta using a matrix normal-inverse Wishart prior. Among
other properties, this kernel can be easily computed when the dimension d of
the time series is much larger than the lengths of the considered time series x
and x'. It can also be generalized to time series taking values in arbitrary
state spaces, as long as the state space itself is endowed with a kernel
\kappa. In that case, the kernel between x and x' is a a function of the Gram
matrices produced by \kappa on observations and subsequences of observations
enumerated in x and x'. We describe a computationally efficient implementation
of this generalization that uses low-rank matrix factorization techniques.
These kernels are compared to other known kernels using a set of benchmark
classification tasks carried out with support vector machines
Uncertainty in phylogenetic tree estimates
Estimating phylogenetic trees is an important problem in evolutionary
biology, environmental policy and medicine. Although trees are estimated, their
uncertainties are discarded by mathematicians working in tree space. Here we
explicitly model the multivariate uncertainty of tree estimates. We consider
both the cases where uncertainty information arises extrinsically (through
covariate information) and intrinsically (through the tree estimates
themselves). The importance of accounting for tree uncertainty in tree space is
demonstrated in two case studies. In the first instance, differences between
gene trees are small relative to their uncertainties, while in the second, the
differences are relatively large. Our main goal is visualization of tree
uncertainty, and we demonstrate advantages of our method with respect to
reproducibility, speed and preservation of topological differences compared to
visualization based on multidimensional scaling. The proposal highlights that
phylogenetic trees are estimated in an extremely high-dimensional space,
resulting in uncertainty information that cannot be discarded. Most
importantly, it is a method that allows biologists to diagnose whether
differences between gene trees are biologically meaningful, or due to
uncertainty in estimation.Comment: Final version accepted to Journal of Computational and Graphical
Statistic
Predicting the distribution of canine leishmaniasis in western Europe based on environmental variables.
The domestic dog is the reservoir host of Leishmania infantum, the causative agent of zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis endemic in Mediterranean Europe. Targeted control requires predictive risk maps of canine leishmaniasis (CanL), which are now explored. We databased 2187 published and unpublished surveys of CanL in southern Europe. A total of 947 western surveys met inclusion criteria for analysis, including serological identification of infection (504, 369 dogs tested 1971-2006). Seroprevalence was 23 2% overall (median 10%). Logistic regression models within a GIS framework identified the main environmental predictors of CanL seroprevalence in Portugal, Spain, France and Italy, or in France alone. A 10-fold cross-validation approach determined model capacity to predict point-values of seroprevalence and the correct seroprevalence class (20%). Both the four-country and France-only models performed reasonably well for predicting correctly the 20% seroprevalence classes (AUC >0 70). However, the France-only model performed much better for France than the four-country model. The four-country model adequately predicted regions of CanL emergence in northern Italy (<5% seroprevalence). Both models poorly predicted intermediate point seroprevalences (5-20%) within regional foci, because surveys were biased towards known rural foci and Mediterranean bioclimates. Our recommendations for standardizing surveys would permit higher-resolution risk mapping
The Population Genetic Signature of Polygenic Local Adaptation
Adaptation in response to selection on polygenic phenotypes may occur via
subtle allele frequencies shifts at many loci. Current population genomic
techniques are not well posed to identify such signals. In the past decade,
detailed knowledge about the specific loci underlying polygenic traits has
begun to emerge from genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Here we combine
this knowledge from GWAS with robust population genetic modeling to identify
traits that may have been influenced by local adaptation. We exploit the fact
that GWAS provide an estimate of the additive effect size of many loci to
estimate the mean additive genetic value for a given phenotype across many
populations as simple weighted sums of allele frequencies. We first describe a
general model of neutral genetic value drift for an arbitrary number of
populations with an arbitrary relatedness structure. Based on this model we
develop methods for detecting unusually strong correlations between genetic
values and specific environmental variables, as well as a generalization of
comparisons to test for over-dispersion of genetic values among
populations. Finally we lay out a framework to identify the individual
populations or groups of populations that contribute to the signal of
overdispersion. These tests have considerably greater power than their single
locus equivalents due to the fact that they look for positive covariance
between like effect alleles, and also significantly outperform methods that do
not account for population structure. We apply our tests to the Human Genome
Diversity Panel (HGDP) dataset using GWAS data for height, skin pigmentation,
type 2 diabetes, body mass index, and two inflammatory bowel disease datasets.
This analysis uncovers a number of putative signals of local adaptation, and we
discuss the biological interpretation and caveats of these results.Comment: 42 pages including 8 figures and 3 tables; supplementary figures and
tables not included on this upload, but are mostly unchanged from v
- âŠ