A review of surrogate models and their application to groundwater modeling

The spatially and temporally variable parameters and inputs to complex groundwater models typically result in long runtimes which hinder comprehensive calibration, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis. Surrogate modeling aims to provide a simpler, and hence faster, model which emulates the specified output of a more complex model in function of its inputs and parameters. In this review paper, we summarize surrogate modeling techniques in three categories: data-driven, projection, and hierarchical-based approaches. Data-driven surrogates approximate a groundwater model through an empirical model that captures the input-output mapping of the original model. Projection-based models reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space by projecting the governing equations onto a basis of orthonormal vectors. In hierarchical or multifidelity methods the surrogate is created by simplifying the representation of the physical system, such as by ignoring certain processes, or reducing the numerical resolution. In discussing the application to groundwater modeling of these methods, we note several imbalances in the existing literature: a large body of work on data-driven approaches seemingly ignores major drawbacks to the methods; only a fraction of the literature focuses on creating surrogates to reproduce outputs of fully distributed groundwater models, despite these being ubiquitous in practice; and a number of the more advanced surrogate modeling methods are yet to be fully applied in a groundwater modeling context

Mini-Workshop: Numerical Upscaling for Media with Deterministic and Stochastic Heterogeneity

This minisymposium was third in series of similar events, after two very successful meetings in 2005 and 2009. The aim was to provide a forum for an extensive discussion on the theoretical aspects and on the areas of application and validity of numerical upscaling approaches for heterogeneous problems with deterministic and stochastic coefficients. The intensive discussions during the meeting contributed to a better understanding of upscaling approaches for multiscale problems with stochastic coefficients, and for synergy between scientists coming to this topic from the area of deterministic multiscale problems on one hand, and those coming from the area of SPDE on the other hand. Recent advanced results on upscaling approaches for deterministic multiscale problems were presented, well mixed with strong presentations on SDE and SPDE. The open problems in these areas were discussed, with emphasis on the case of stochastic coefficients brainstorming numerous numerical upscaling approaches. A number of young researchers, very actively working in these areas, were involved in the workshop discussing the links between scales., thus ensuring the continuity between the generations of researchers

Application of multilevel concepts for uncertainty quantification in reservoir simulation

Uncertainty quantification is an important task in reservoir simulation and is an active area of research. The main idea of uncertainty quantification is to compute the distribution of a quantity of interest, for example oil rate. That uncertainty, then feeds into the decision making process. A statistically valid way of quantifying the uncertainty is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, such as Random Walk Metropolis (RWM). MCMC is a robust technique for estimating the distribution of the quantity of interest. RWM is can be prohibitively expensive, due to the need to run a huge number of realizations, 45% - 70% of these may be rejected and, even for a simple reservoir model it may take 15 minutes for each realization. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo accelerates the convergence for RWM but may lead to a large increase computational cost because it requires the gradient. In this thesis, we present how to use the multilevel concept to accelerate convergence for RWM. The thesis discusses how to apply Multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MLMCMC) to uncertainty quantification. It proposes two new techniques, one for improving the proxy based on multilevel idea called Multilevel proxy (MLproxy) and the second one for accelerating the convergence of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is called Multilevel Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (MLHMC). The idea behind the multilevel concept is a simple telescoping sum: which represents the expensive solution (e.g., estimating the distribution for oil rate on finest grid) in terms of a cheap solution (e.g., estimating the distribution for oil rate on coarse grid) and `correction terms', which are the difference between the high resolution solution and a low resolution solution. A small fraction of realizations is then run on the finer grids to compute correction terms. This reduces the computational cost and simulation errors significantly. MLMCMC is a combination between RWM and multilevel concept, it greatly reduces the computational cost compared to the RWM for uncertainty quantification. It makes Monte Carlo estimation a feasible technique for uncertainty quantification in reservoir simulation applications. In this thesis, MLMCMC has been implemented on two reservoir models based on real fields in the central Gulf of Mexico and in North Sea. MLproxy is another way for decreasing the computational cost based on constructing an emulator and then improving it by adding the correction term between the proxy and simulated results. MLHMC is a combination of Multilevel Monte Carlo method with a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm. It accelerates Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and is faster than HMC. In the thesis, it has been implemented on a real field called Teal South to assess the uncertainty

Bayesian reconstruction of binary media with unresolved fine-scale spatial structures

We present a Bayesian technique to estimate the fine-scale properties of a binary medium from multiscale observations. The binary medium of interest consists of spatially varying proportions of low and high permeability material with an isotropic structure. Inclusions of one material within the other are far smaller than the domain sizes of interest, and thus are never explicitly resolved. We consider the problem of estimating the spatial distribution of the inclusion proportion, F(x), and a characteristic length-scale of the inclusions, δ, from sparse multiscale measurements. The observations consist of coarse-scale (of the order of the domain size) measurements of the effective permeability of the medium (i.e., static data) and tracer breakthrough times (i.e., dynamic data), which interrogate the fine scale, at a sparsely distributed set of locations. This ill-posed problem is regularized by specifying a Gaussian process model for the unknown field F(x) and expressing it as a superposition of Karhunen–Loève modes. The effect of the fine-scale structures on the coarse-scale effective permeability i.e., upscaling, is performed using a subgrid-model which includes δ as one of its parameters. A statistical inverse problem is posed to infer the weights of the Karhunen–Loève modes and δ, which is then solved using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The solution yields non-parametric distributions for the objects of interest, thus providing most probable estimates and uncertainty bounds on latent structures at coarse and fine scales. The technique is tested using synthetic data. The individual contributions of the static and dynamic data to the inference are also analyzed.United States. Dept. of Energy. National Nuclear Security Administration (Contract DE-AC04_94AL85000

Multilevel Uncertainty Quantification Techniques Using Multiscale Methods

In this dissertation, we focus on the uncertainty quantification problems in sub-surface flow models which can be computationally demanding because of the large number of unknowns in forward simulations. First, we propose a general framework for the uncertainty quantification of quantities of interest for high-contrast single-phase flow problems. It is based on the Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Method (GMsFEM) and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. The former provides a hierarchy of approximations at different resolutions, whereas the latter gives an efficient way to estimate quantities of interest using samples on different levels. By suitably choosing the number of samples at different levels, one can use less of expensive forward simulations on the fine grid, while more of inexpensive forward simulations on the coarse grid in Monte Carlo simulations. Further, we describe a Multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MLMCMC) method, which sequentially screens the proposal with different levels of approximations and reduces the number of evaluations required on the fine grid, while combining the samples at different levels to arrive at an accurate estimate. The framework seamlessly integrates the multiscale feature of the GMsFEM with the multilevel feature of the MLMC methods, and our numerical experiments illustrate its efficiency and accuracy in comparison with standard Monte Carlo estimates. We also propose a multiscale space-parameter separation model reduction method for handling uncertainties in forward problems. The method is based on the idea of separation of variables. This involves seeking the solution in terms of an expansion, where each term is a separable function of space and parameter variables. To find each term in the expansion, we solve a minimization problem associated with the forward problem. The minimization is performed successively for each term consisting of a separable function. In this proposed approach, we need to solve the PDE repeatedly, where we use GMsFEM to speed up the computation. We discuss how the GMsFEM can be used in this context and how the computational gain can be achieved. We present numerical results, which illustrate the efficiency and accuracy of our method. We also discuss efficient sampling techniques for uncertainty quantification in inverse problems. In particular, we consider Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and develop a Multilevel Approximate Bayesian computation (MLABC) by using a hierarchy of forward simulation models within the MLMC framework. This approach improves the MLMCMC approach. In this part of the dissertation, we develop a mixed Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Method (GMsFEM) for solving parameter-dependent two-phase flow problems with transport model. A hierarchy of approximations at different resolutions can be provided by this mixed GMsFEM. ABC can be incorporated in different levels to reduce the computational cost, and to produce an approximate solution by ensembling at different levels