Empirical assessment of bifurcation regions within new Keynesian models

As is well known in systems theory, the parameter space of most dynamic models is stratified into subsets, each of which supports a different kind of dynamic solution. Since we do not know the parameters with certainty, knowledge of the location of the bifurcation boundaries is of fundamental importance. Without knowledge of the location of such boundaries, there is no way to know whether the confidence region about the parameters’ point estimates might be crossed by one or more such boundaries. If there are intersections between bifurcation boundaries and a confidence region, the resulting stratification of the confidence region damages inference robustness about dynamics, when such dynamical inferences are produced by the usual simulations at the point estimates only. Recently, interest in policy in some circles has moved to New Keynesian models, which have become common in monetary policy formulations. As a result, we explore bifurcations within the class of New Keynesian models. We study different specifications of monetary policy rules within the New Keynesian functional structure. In initial research in this area, Barnett and Duzhak (2008) found a New Keynesian Hopf bifurcation boundary, with the setting of the policy parameters influencing the existence and location of the bifurcation boundary. Hopf bifurcation is the most commonly encountered type of bifurcation boundary found among economic models, since the existence of a Hopf bifurcation boundary is accompanied by regular oscillations within a neighborhood of the bifurcation boundary. Now, following a more extensive and systematic search of the parameter space, we also find the existence of Period Doubling (flip) bifurcation boundaries in the class of models. Central results in this research are our theorems on the existence and location of Hopf bifurcation boundaries in each of the considered cases. We also solve numerically for the location and properties of the Period Doubling bifurcation boundaries and their dependence upon policy-rule parameter settings.Bifurcation; dynamic general equilibrium; Hopf bifurcation; flip bifurcation; period doubling bifurcation; robustness; New Keynesian macroeconometrics; Taylor rule; inflation targeting

Empirical Assessment of Bifurcation Regions within New Keynesian Models

As is well known in systems theory, the parameter space of most dynamic models is stratified into subsets, each of which supports a different kind of dynamic solution. Since we do not know the parameters with certainty, knowledge of the location of the bifurcation boundaries is of fundamental importance. Without knowledge of the location of such boundaries, there is no way to know whether the confidence region about the parameters’ point estimates might be crossed by one or more such boundaries. If there are intersections between bifurcation boundaries and a confidence region, the resulting stratification of the confidence region damages inference robustness about dynamics, when such dynamical inferences are produced by the usual simulations at the point estimates only. Recently, interest in policy in some circles has moved to New Keynesian models, which have become common in monetary policy formulations. As a result, we explore bifurcations within the class of New Keynesian models. We study different specifications of monetary policy rules within the New Keynesian functional structure. In initial research in this area, Barnett and Duzhak (2008) found a New Keynesian Hopf bifurcation boundary, with the setting of the policy parameters influencing the existence and location of the bifurcation boundary. Hopf bifurcation is the most commonly encountered type of bifurcation boundary found among economic models, since the existence of a Hopf bifurcation boundary is accompanied by regular oscillations within a neighborhood of the bifurcation boundary. Now, following a more extensive and systematic search of the parameter space, we also find the existence of Period Doubling (flip) bifurcation boundaries in the class of models. Central results in this research are our theorems on the existence and location of Hopf bifurcation boundaries in each of the considered cases. We also solve numerically for the location and properties of the Period Doubling bifurcation boundaries and their dependence upon policy-rule parameter settings.Bifurcation, dynamic general equilibrium, Hopf bifurcation, flip bifurcation, period doubling bifurcation, robustness, New Keynesian macroeconometrics, Taylor rule, inflation targeting.

Nonlinear dynamics of self-sustained supersonic reaction waves: Fickett's detonation analogue

The present study investigates the spatio-temporal variability in the dynamics of self-sustained supersonic reaction waves propagating through an excitable medium. The model is an extension of Fickett's detonation model with a state dependent energy addition term. Stable and pulsating supersonic waves are predicted. With increasing sensitivity of the reaction rate, the reaction wave transits from steady propagation to stable limit cycles and eventually to chaos through the classical Feigenbaum route. The physical pulsation mechanism is explained by the coherence between internal wave motion and energy release. The results obtained clarify the physical origin of detonation wave instability in chemical detonations previously observed experimentally.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Bifurcation Theory of Dynamical Chaos

The purpose of the present chapter is once again to show on concrete new examples that chaos in one-dimensional unimodal mappings, dynamical chaos in systems of ordinary differential equations, diffusion chaos in systems of the equations with partial derivatives and chaos in Hamiltonian and conservative systems are generated by cascades of bifurcations under universal bifurcation Feigenbaum-Sharkovsky-Magnitskii (FShM) scenario. And all irregular attractors of all such dissipative systems born during realization of such scenario are exclusively singular attractors that are the nonperiodic limited trajectories in finite dimensional or infinitely dimensional phase space any neighborhood of which contains the infinite number of unstable periodic trajectories

Dynamics from seconds to hours in Hodgkin-Huxley model with time-dependent ion concentrations and buffer reservoirs

The classical Hodgkin--Huxley (HH) model neglects the time-dependence of ion concentrations in spiking dynamics. The dynamics is therefore limited to a time scale of milliseconds, which is determined by the membrane capacitance multiplied by the resistance of the ion channels, and by the gating time constants. We study slow dynamics in an extended HH framework that includes time-dependent ion concentrations, pumps, and buffers. Fluxes across the neuronal membrane change intra- and extracellular ion concentrations, whereby the latter can also change through contact to reservoirs in the surroundings. Ion gain and loss of the system is identified as a bifurcation parameter whose essential importance was not realized in earlier studies. Our systematic study of the bifurcation structure and thus the phase space structure helps to understand activation and inhibition of a new excitability in ion homeostasis which emerges in such extended models. Also modulatory mechanisms that regulate the spiking rate can be explained by bifurcations. The dynamics on three distinct slow times scales is determined by the cell volume-to-surface-area ratio and the membrane permeability (seconds), the buffer time constants (tens of seconds), and the slower backward buffering (minutes to hours). The modulatory dynamics and the newly emerging excitable dynamics corresponds to pathological conditions observed in epileptiform burst activity, and spreading depression in migraine aura and stroke, respectively.Comment: 18 pages, 11 figure

Long Tailed Maps as a Representation of Mixed Mode Oscillatory Systems

Mixed mode oscillatory (MMO) systems are known to exhibit some generic features such as the reversal of period doubling sequences and crossover to period adding sequences as bifurcation parameters are varied. In addition, they exhibit a nearly one dimensional unimodal Poincare map with a longtail. We recover these common features from a general class of two parameter family of one dimensional maps with a unique critical point that satisfy a few general constraints that determine the nature of the map. We derive scaling laws that determine the parameter widths of the dominant windows of periodic orbits sandwiched between two successive states of RL^k sequence. An example of a two parameter map with a unique critical point is introduced to verify the analytical results.Comment: 13 pages and 8 figure