Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The results suggest that real estate forecasts are biased, less volatile compared to market returns and inefficient in that forecast errors tend to persist. The strongest finding is that real estate forecasters display the characteristics associated with a consensus indicating herding

Ortalama-varyans portföy optimizasyonunda genetik algoritma uygulamaları üzerine bir literatür araştırması

Mean-variance portfolio optimization model, introduced by Markowitz, provides a fundamental answer to the problem of portfolio management. This model seeks an efficient frontier with the best trade-offs between two conflicting objectives of maximizing return and minimizing risk. The problem of determining an efficient frontier is known to be NP-hard. Due to the complexity of the problem, genetic algorithms have been widely employed by a growing number of researchers to solve this problem. In this study, a literature review of genetic algorithms implementations on mean-variance portfolio optimization is examined from the recent published literature. Main specifications of the problems studied and the specifications of suggested genetic algorithms have been summarized

Analysing Uk Real Estate Market Forecast Disagreement

Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts.  Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The results suggest that real estate forecasts are biased, less volatile compared to market returns and inefficient in that forecast errors tend to persist.    The strongest finding is that real estate forecasters display the characteristics associated with a consensus indicating herding.Real Estate Forecasting, Forecast Accuracy, Forecast Disagreement, Consensus.

Preparation of the Tax Expenditures Statement

This audit assessed the extent to which the Department of the Treasury and the Australian Taxation Office have improved the management of tax expenditure estimates.Overall conclusionTax expenditures are revenues a government forgoes in pursuit of its policy objectives, including its medium-term fiscal strategy. Tax expenditures have been an important part of the Australian income tax system since the early 1900’s, when tax exempt invalid and old age pensions were introduced. In some areas, such as the retirement income system, they are heavily integrated into the Government’s policy framework. The number and aggregate value of tax expenditures have increased substantially over time and were estimated in 2011–12 to be around $111 billion. This represents a significant level when viewed in the context of the Australian Government Budget.The ANAO’s 2008 audit and subsequent JCPAA review encouraged improvements to the administration of tax expenditures through better integration of tax expenditures into the Budget process, systematic review to ensure that tax expenditure items continue to meet their intended objectives and improved reporting in the annual TES.20 Progress by the Treasury and the ATO in implementing the recommendations in the 2008 audit and JCPAA review has been slow. Treasury advised that, facing reduced resourcing, it has focussed on providing advice on the Government’s key revenue priorities, as well as servicing the review of Australia’s future tax system and other key reviews.Of the recommendations in the 2008 audit and JCPAA review, only two ANAO recommendations have been fully implemented. The remaining recommendations, which continue to be relevant, have only been partially addressed. The status of the recommendations that have not been fully implemented is as follows: processes have been put in place to better integrate tax expenditures into the Budget process, although there is the potential to increase the quantification of tax expenditures resulting from new policy proposals in the relevant Budget Papers (relating to ANAO Recommendation No. 2); the systematic review and evaluation of tax expenditures on an ongoing basis commenced in 2008 but ceased in 2011, without publicly reporting the results (relating to ANAO Recommendation No. 1); the Treasury has not advanced the development of standards or pursued international methods of reporting (relating to ANAO Recommendation No. 3 and JCPAA Recommendation No. 8); and there has been no measurable improvement to the reliability and quantification of the Treasury’s tax expenditure estimates over time (relating to ANAO Recommendation No. 6(a) and 6(c), and JCPAA Recommendation No. 9)

Issues, Patterns and Strategies in the Development of Event Portfolios: Configuring Models, Design and Policy

Whilst the use of event portfolios as a multi-purpose policy tool is increasing worldwide, academic attention on this phenomenon remains sparse. In response, the purpose of this review paper is to identify the major issues in the use of portfolios by host communities and destinations aspiring to become eventful and delineate the emergent development patterns and strategies. The paper postulates the core dynamics that can enable capacity-building in event portfolio development and suggests a network framework for setting up a holistic portfolio policy with systemic management properties. This framework provides a theoretical scaffolding to contextualize the first formalized city portfolio strategies. Based on this discussion, four major issues are identified: portfolio configurations, leveraging, sustainability, and community capacity-building. Policy implications are drawn that theorize the surfacing portfolio development models, design logics and strategic approaches. The effects on social structures are considered in terms of how they determine the longevity, legitimation, and institutional embeddedness of event portfolios. The paper proffers that event portfolios represent a multi-dimensional phenomenon and highly versatile policy tool with manifold configurations. Their sustainable growth requires a shift in event-tourism thinking from the hitherto focus on single major events to managing multiple events for achieving multiple purposes

Value-Driven IT Project Portfolio Management: Tool-Based Scoring, Selection, and Scheduling

Managing IT project portfolios is a challenge because of IT projects\u27 complexity, dynamics, and uncertainty. Many IT projects exceed resources or time frames and do not reach their value-driven goals. A continuous scoring, selection, and scheduling of IT project proposals is thus essential to build an optimal portfolio. It has a significant impact on value contribution, strategic direction, goal achievement, and competitive advantages. We quantify an IT project\u27s urgency, strategy, efficiency, risk, and complexity as important evaluation and scoring criteria. To support top management decision makers in the IT project portfolio management process, we outline a combination of an evaluation approach with an optimization model. We develop a prototype decision support system to automate and simplify this process and demonstrate its applicability. Our recommendations address both theory and practice, improve IT project portfolio management, support value creation, and goal achievement

Collateralised loan obligations (CLOs) : a primer

The following descriptive paper surveys the various types of loan securitisation and provides a working definition of so-called collateralised loan obligations (CLOs). Free of the common rhetoric and slogans, which sometimes substitute for understanding of the complex nature of structured finance, this paper describes the theoretical foundations of this specialised form of loan securitisation. Not only the distinctive properties of CLOs, but also the information economics inherent in the transfer of credit risk will be considered, so that we can equally privilege the critical aspects of security design in the structuring of CLO transactions