Exploring zoning scenario impacts upon urban growth simulations using a dynamic spatial model

Dynamic spatial models are being increasingly used to explore urban changes and evaluate the social and environmental consequences of urban growth. However, inadequate representation of spatial complexity, regional differentiation, and growth management policies can result in urban models with a high overall prediction accuracy but low pixel-matching precision. Correspondingly, improving urban growth prediction accuracy and reliability has become an important area of research in geographic information science and applied urban studies. This work focuses on exploring the potential impacts of zoning on urban growth simulations. Although the coding of land-use types into distinct zones is an important growth management strategy, it has not been adequately addressed in urban modeling practices. In this study, we developed a number of zoning schemes and examined their impacts on urban growth predictions using a cellular automaton-based dynamic spatial model. Using the city of Jinan, a fast-growing large metropolis in China, as the study site, five zoning scenarios were designed: no zoning (S0), zoning based on land-use type (S1), zoning based on urbanized suitability (S2), zoning based on administrative division (S3), and zoning based on development planning subdivision (S4). Under these scenarios, growth was simulated and the respective prediction accuracies and projected patterns were evaluated against observed urban patterns derived from remote sensing. It was found that zoning can affect prediction accuracy and projected urbanized patterns, with the zoning scenarios taking spatial differentiation of planning policies into account (i.e., S2–4) generating better predictions of newly urbanized pixels, better representing urban clustered development, and boosting the level of spatial matching relative to zoning by land-use type (S1). The novelty of this work lies in its design of specific zoning scenarios based on spatial differentiation and growth management policies and in its insight into the impacts of various zoning scenarios on urban growth simulation. These findings indicate opportunities for the more accurate projection of urban pattern growth through the use of dynamic models with appropriately designed zoning scenarios. Keywords：urban growth simulation; zoning scenarios; cellular automaton models; spatial matching; prediction accurac

Modelling built-up expansion and densification with multinomial logistic regression, cellular automata and genetic algorithm

This paper presents a model to simulate built-up expansion and densification based on a combination of a non-ordered multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and cellular automata (CA). The probability for built-up development is assessed based on (i) a set of built-up development causative factors and (ii) the land-use of neighboring cells. The model considers four built-up classes: non built-up, low-density, medium-density and high-density built-up. Unlike the most commonly used built-up/urban models which simulate built-up expansion, our approach considers expansion and the potential for densification within already built-up areas when their present density allows it. The model is built, calibrated, and validated for Wallonia region (Belgium) using cadastral data. Three 100 × 100 m raster-based built-up maps for 1990, 2000, and 2010 are developed to define one calibration interval (1990–2000) and one validation interval (2000 − 2010). The causative factors are calibrated using MLR whereas the CA neighboring effects are calibrated based on a multi-objective genetic algorithm. The calibrated model is applied to simulate the built-up pattern in 2010. The simulated map in 2010 is used to evaluate the model’s performance against the actual 2010 map by means of fuzzy set theory. According to the findings, land-use policy, slope, and distance to roads are the most important determinants of the expansion process. The densification process is mainly driven by zoning, slope, distance to different roads and richness index. The results also show that the densification generally occurs where there are dense neighbors whereas areas with lower densities retain their densities over time

Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O3 and PM2.5 over India

Eleven of the world\u27s 20 most polluted cities are located in India and poor air quality is already a major public health issue. However, anthropogenic emissions are predicted to increase substantially in the short-term (2030) and medium-term (2050) futures in India, especially if no further policy efforts are made. In this study, the EMEP/MSC-W chemical transport model has been used to predict changes in surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) for India in a world of changing emissions and climate. The reference scenario (for present-day) is evaluated against surface-based measurements, mainly at urban stations. The evaluation has also been extended to other data sets which are publicly available on the web but without quality assurance. The evaluation shows high temporal correlation for O 3 (r = 0.9) and high spatial correlation for PM 2.5 (r = 0.5 and r = 0.8 depending on the data set) between the model results and observations. While the overall bias in PM 2.5 is small (lower than 6%), the model overestimates O 3 by 35%. The underestimation in NO x titration is probably the main reason for the O 3 overestimation in the model. However, the level of agreement can be considered satisfactory in this case of a regional model being evaluated against mainly urban measurements, and given the inevitable uncertainties in much of the input data. For the 2050s, the model predicts that climate change will have distinct effects in India in terms of O 3 pollution, with a region in the north characterized by a statistically significant increase by up to 4% (2 ppb) and one in the south by a decrease up to -3% (-1.4 ppb). This variation in O 3 is assumed to be partly related to changes in O 3 deposition velocity caused by changes in soil moisture and, over a few areas, partly also by changes in biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds. Our calculations suggest that PM 2.5 will increase by up to 6.5% over the Indo-Gangetic Plain by the 2050s. The increase over India is driven by increases in dust, particulate organic matter (OM) and secondary inorganic aerosols (SIAs), which are mainly affected by the change in precipitation, biogenic emissions and wind speed. The large increase in anthropogenic emissions has a larger impact than climate change, causing O 3 and PM 2.5 levels to increase by 13 and 67% on average in the 2050s over the main part of India, respectively. By the 2030s, secondary inorganic aerosol is predicted to become the second largest contributor to PM 2.5 in India, and the largest in the 2050s, exceeding OM and dust

Geosimulation and Multicriteria Modelling of Residential Land Development in the City of Tehran: A Comparative Analysis of Global and Local Models

Conventional models for simulating land-use patterns are insufficient in addressing complex dynamics of urban systems. A new generation of urban models, inspired by research on cellular automata and multi-agent systems, has been proposed to address the drawbacks of conventional modelling. This new generation of urban models is called geosimulation. Geosimulation attempts to model macro-scale patterns using micro-scale urban entities such as vehicles, homeowners, and households. The urban entities are represented by agents in the geosimulation modelling. Each type of agents has different preferences and priorities and shows different behaviours. In the land-use modelling context, the behaviour of agents is their ability to evaluate the suitability of parcels of land using a number of factors (criteria and constraints), and choose the best land(s) for a specific purpose. Multicriteria analysis provides a set of methods and procedures that can be used in the geosimulation modelling to describe the behaviours of agents. There are three main objectives of this research. First, a framework for integrating multicriteria models into geosimulation procedures is developed to simulate residential development in the City of Tehran. Specifically, the local form of multicriteria models is used as a method for modelling agents’ behaviours. Second, the framework is tested in the context of residential land development in Tehran between 1996 and 2006. The empirical research is focused on identifying the spatial patterns of land suitability for residential development taking into account the preferences of three groups of actors (agents): households, developers, and local authorities. Third, a comparative analysis of the results of the geosimulation-multicriteria models is performed. A number of global and local geosimulation-multicriteria models (scenarios) of residential development in Tehran are defined and then the results obtained by the scenarios are evaluated and examined. The output of each geosimulation-multicriteria model is compared to the results of other models and to the actual pattern of land-use in Tehran. The analysis is focused on comparing the results of the local and global geosimulation-multicriteria models. Accuracy measures and spatial metrics are used in the comparative analysis. The results suggest that, in general, the local geosimulation-multicriteria models perform better than the global methods

Nighttime Lights as a Proxy for Economic Performance of Regions

Studying and managing regional economic development in the current globalization era demands prompt, reliable, and comparable estimates for a region’s economic performance. Night-time lights (NTL) emitted from residential areas, entertainment places, industrial facilities, etc., and captured by satellites have become an increasingly recognized proxy for on-ground human activities. Compared to traditional indicators supplied by statistical offices, NTLs may have several advantages. First, NTL data are available all over the world, providing researchers and official bodies with the opportunity to obtain estimates even for regions with extremely poor reporting practices. Second, in contrast to non-standardized traditional reporting procedures, the unified NTL data remove the problem of inter-regional comparability. Finally, NTL data are currently globally available on a daily basis, which makes it possible to obtain these estimates promptly. In this book, we provide the reader with the contributions demonstrating the potential and efficiency of using NTL data as a proxy for the performance of regions

Spatiotemporal modeling of interactions between urbanization and flood risk: a multi-level approach

The main goal of this PhD research is to investigate the expected flood damage for future urban patterns at different scales. Four main steps are followed to accomplish this goal. In the first step, a retrospective analysis is performed for the evolution of the urban development in Wallonia (Belgium) as a case study. Afterward, two land use change models, cellular automata-based, and agent-based are proposed and compared. Based on this comparison, the agent-based model is employed to simulate future urbanization scenarios. An important feature of this research is evident in the consideration of the multiple densities of built-up areas, which enables to study both expansion and densification processes. As the model simulates urbanization up to 2100, forecasting land use change over such time frames entails very significant uncertainties. In this regard, uncertainty in land use change models has been considered. In the third step, 24 urbanization scenarios that differed in terms of spatial policies and urbanization rate are generated. The simulated scenarios have then been integrated with a hydrological model. The results suggest that urban development will continue within flood-prone zones in a number of scenarios. Therefore, in the fourth and last step, a procedural urban generation system is developed to analyze the respective influence of various urban layout characteristics on inundation flow, which assists in designing flood-resistant urban layouts within the flood-prone zones.This thesis was funded through the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions for project number 13/17-01 entitled "Land-use change and future flood risk: influence of micro-scale spatial patterns (FloodLand)" financed by the French Community of Belgium (Wallonia-Brussels Federation)

Housing quality and lost (public) space in Croatia

IN ENGLISH: In the post-socialist period and within the current social transition context, urban and rural Croatia has, just like other transition countries, experienced many changes in the social structure and space. One example is the housing quality which is a replica of the situation in the Croatian society and has also undergone some major changes. Socially oriented housing construction co-financed by the state and the cities is in an unfavourable position compared to private housing construction. In the last twenty years the amount of the social housing construction has been only a minor part of the total contruction work in the country. For instance, out of nine newly planned residential housing developments in Zagreb, the capital city, only three have been completed and the work on the rest of them has stopped and is unlikely to continue. Private construction work prevails especially on the edge of the city and is characterised by high density housing. This type of housing construction doesn't benefit the majority of citizens in search of accommodation (price per square meter is too high, low-quality building). There is also a big problem of the community facilities (primary and secondary infrastructure, schools, kindergartens, playgrounds, green areas, sidewalks, public transport etc.). The existing globalisation-transition circumstances of the Croatian society corroborate the fact which experts of various profiles often point out: ignoring the process of (urban) planning will irreparably damage the space. The city transformation shows the absence of comprehensive urban planning which results in an ever increasing number of random buildings which do not fit in the surroundings. This leads up to yet another important issue – the shrinking and, in some cases, disappearance of public space which becomes the “lost space“. In recent years there has been a lot of building in the city core and on the edge which does not quite fit in the existing urban structure, image or the skyline of the city. The current situation in the process of planning can be characterized as a conflict and imbalance between the powerful actors (mostly political and economic) and less powerful actors (mostly professional and civil). The actors who have the political power and influence and the ones who possess the capital are forming an “alliance” between two important layers of the social structure. The lack of civil and professional actors, “lost spatial actors”, and therefore of civic aggregation is also present and that is also the cause of public space “disappearance” and undermined process of public participation. --------------- IN CROATIAN: U postsocijalističkom razdoblju i trenutnom tranzicijskom kontekstu urbana i ruralna Hrvatska su, kao i ostale tranzicijske zemlje, doživjele mnoge promjene u društvenoj strukturi i samom prostoru. Na primjeru kvalitete stanovanja kao replike stanja u hrvatskom društvu mogu se vidjeti značajne promjene. Društveno usmjerena stambena izgradnja sufinancirana od strane države i gradova je stoga rjeđa i u nepovoljnijoj je situaciji prema privatnoj stanogradnji. Zadnjih dvadeset godina udjel socijalne stambene gradnje je zanemariv u ukupnoj izgradnji na razini zemlje. Primjerice, od devet planiranih stambenih naselja izgrađenih po modelu POS-a u Zagrebu samo su tri i završena. Na ostalima je proces gradnje zastao i ne čini se da će se privesti kraju. Privatna je gradnje prisutnija, posebno na rubovima grada, a obilježava je visoka gustoća gradnje. Ovakav tip gradnje ne odgovara većini stanovnika koji su u procesu potražnje stambene nekretnine (visoka cijena kvadratnog metra, a slaba kvaliteta gradnje). Postoji također i problem nedostatne opremljenosti susjedstva (primarna i sekundarna infrastruktura, škole, vrtići, igrališta, zelene površine, pješačke staze, javni transport itd.). Navedene globalizacijsko-tranzicijske okolnosti hrvatskog društva potvrđuju ono što eksperti različitih profila ističu, a to je da će ignoriranje procesa (urbanog) planiranja nepovratno uništiti prostor gradova. Ovakve transformacije pokazuju nedostatak sustavnog urbanog planiranja što rezultira sve većim brojem zgrada koje se ne uklapaju u neposrednu okolinu. To nadalje dovodi do drugog važnog aspekta – smanjivanja i u nekim slučajevima, nestanka javnog prostora koji postaje „izgubljeni prostor“. Posljednjih je godina izgrađen velik broj zgrada, i u središtu i na rubovima grada, koje se ne uklapaju u postojeću urbanu strukturu, izgled ili vizuru grada. Ovakvu situaciju obilježavaju sukob i neravnoteža između moćnijih društvenih aktera (većinom političkih i ekonomskih) i onih manje moćnih (većinom profesionalnih i civilnih). Politički i ekonomski akteri se često povezuju u „savez“ dvaju najjačih u društvenoj strukturi. S druge strane nedostatak utjecaja civilnih i profesionalnih aktera kao „izgubljenih prostornih aktera“ dovodi do „nestanka“ javnih prostora te smanjenja važnosti procesa participacije (sudjelovanja javnosti)