Stability and Sensitivity Measures for Solutions in Complex, Intelligent, Adaptive and Autonomous Systems

Simulation has become a pivotal tool for the design, analysis, and control of complex, intelligent, adaptive and autonomous systems and its components. However, due to the nature of these systems, traditional evaluation practices are often not sufficient. As the components follow adaptive rules, the cumulative events often exploit bifurcation enabling events, leading to clusters of solutions that do not follow the usual rules for standard distributed events. When using simulation for design, analysis, and control of such systems, the evaluation needs to be richer, applying bifurcation and cluster analysis to understand the distribution, applying factor analysis to understand the important factors for the necessary sensitivity analysis, and take not only point estimates for the solution and the sensitivity analysis into account, but contact a statistical stability analysis. The full exploitation of gaining numerical insights into the dynamic behavior and its deviations is needed. This paper introduces the pitfalls and recommends applicable methods and heuristics

An SoS Conceptual Model, LVC Simulation Framework, and a Prototypical Implementation of Unmanned System Interventions for Nuclear Power Plant Disaster Preparedness, Response, and Mitigation

Nuclear power plant disasters can have severe and far-reaching consequences, thus emergency managers and first responders from utility owners to the DoD must be prepared to respond to and mitigate effects protecting the public and environment from further damage. Rapidly emerging unmanned systems promise significant improvement in response and mitigation of nuclear disasters. Models and simulations (M&S) may play a significant role in improving readiness and reducing risks through its use in planning, analysis, preparation training, and mitigation rehearsal for a wide spectrum of derivate scenarios. Legacy nuclear reactor M&S lack interoperability between themselves and avatar or agent-based simulations of emergent unmanned systems. Bridging the gap between past and the evolving future, we propose a conceptual model (CM) using a System of System (SoS) approach, a simulation federation framework capable of supporting concurrent and interoperating live, virtual and constructive simulation (LVC), and demonstrate a prototypical implementation of an unmanned system intervention for nuclear power plant disaster using the constructive simulation component. The SoS CM, LVC simulation framework, and prototypical implementation are generalizable to other preparedness, response, and mitigation scenarios. The SoS CM broadens the current stovepipe reactor-based simulations to a system-of-system perspective. The framework enables distributed interoperating simulations with a network of legacy and emergent avatar and agent simulations. The unmanned system implementation demonstrates feasibility of the SoS CM and LVC framework through replication of selective Fukushima events. Further, the system-of-systems approach advances life cycle stages including concept exploration, system design, engineering, training, and mission rehearsal. Live, virtual, and constructive component subsystems of the CM are described along with an explanation of input/output requirements. Finally, applications to analysis and training, an evaluation of the SoS CM based on recently proposed criteria found in the literature, and suggestions for future research are discussed

Creation and Analysis of an Enhanced RASCAL-LVC Framework Capable of Simulating Ionizing Radiation Damage to Emergency Responders During a Nuclear Power Plant Disaster: A Case Study in Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Electronic System Survivability

This study developed and analyzed the use of a live virtual constructive (LVC) framework capable of simulating ionizing radiation damage to Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) during a nuclear power plant disaster. UAV response promises greater safety to humans over helicopters as well as provides longer survivability in the presence of irradiated environments. However, electronics in unmanned systems are subject to radiation damage and over time eventual failure. A LVC simulation framework may offer an independent and low-cost assessment of equipment life expectancy. Knowing life expectancy of equipment for operational scenarios is critical for emergency management planners. This research creates an enhanced RASCAL-LVC simulation framework by modeling and simulating NPP disaster radiation release based on the NRC RASCAL simulation and radioactive cloud dispersion in STAGE. The resulting framework enables analysis of length of operational survivability of UAV electronics for three illustrative missions. The three scenarios examined are: (1) an In-And-Out Mission that simulates Parts Delivery, Surveillance, or passenger pickup/delivery; (2) a Fukushima-like Spent Fuel Pool water replenishment mission with radiation hot spot; and (3) an exploratory Chernobyl-magnitude Reactor Fire-extinguishing Mission with an open reactor radiation hot spot. More generally, the enhanced RASCAL-LVC framework is capable of: (1) supporting human-in-the-loop training and mission rehearsal; (2) design and analysis of a broad spectrum of NPP disaster scenarios and mission responses; (3) analysis of various response vehicles within mission-scenario combinations; and (4) system engineering support to each system\u27s life cycle