5,562 research outputs found
FORECASTING SPOT ELECTRICITY PRICES WITH TIME SERIES MODELS
In this paper we study simple time series models and assess their forecasting performance. In particular we calibrate ARMA and ARMAX (where the exogenous variable is the system load) processes. Models are tested on a time series of California power market system prices and loads from the period proceeding and including the market crash.Electricity, price forecasting, ARMA model, seasonal component
Wholesale fuel price adjustment in Poland: examination of competitive performance
Motivation: Import parity pricing, potentially provoking parallel pricing, and asymmetric price transmission are both considered as the factors that can distort competitiveness and foster collusive behavior on the fuel markets.Aim: The study encompass an analysis of usual ârocket and feathersâ reactions in response to common drivers of the gasoline wholesale price and comparative analysis of individual playersâ pricing paths in order to examine competitive performance of the market. To account for an implied IPP pricing mechanism, a set of common wholesale price determinants was expanded.Results: We revealed a significant short-run asymmetries in a transmission of all downstream price determinants and shown that the foreign exchange rate is a main driver underlying a positive asymmetry in the wholesale pricesâ paths. We compared dynamic price adjustment paths for the major players and revealed the common patterns. That suggest a strong possibility of parallel pricing
Convergence of Electricity Wholesale Prices in Europe?: A Kalman Filter Approach
This study tests the hypothesis that the ongoing restructuring process in the European electricity sector, as well as market participants' adaptation to the new legal framework, have caused electricity wholesale day-ahead prices to converge towards arbitrage freeness. Using hourly cross-border capacity auction results at the Dutch-German and at the Danish-German border for the years 2002 to 2004, and the respective spot prices. We estimate a time-varying coefficient model based on the law of one price (LOP). The results of these estimations are used to calculate the speed of convergence towards the LOP. While the German-Dutch prices and the German-West Danish prices are clearly developing towards arbitrage freeness, the German and East Danish prices do not exhibit significant convergence.Electricity prices, European integration, Time series analysis
Az eurĂłpai fogyasztĂłk jĂłlĂ©tĂ©nek az elemzĂ©se: VizsgĂĄlatok gĂĄzpiaci modellezĂ©s segĂtsĂ©gĂ©vel
Napjainkban több okbĂłl is kĂŒlönös figyelem övezi az eurĂłpai gĂĄzpiaci törtĂ©nĂ©seket. A lehetsĂ©ges okok között emlĂthetĆ többek között az orosz-ukrĂĄn konfliktus, az egyre növekvĆ globĂĄlis gĂĄzpiaci kĂnĂĄlat miatt az oroszokra nehezedĆ nyomĂĄs, valamint a folyamatos eurĂłpai szabĂĄlyozĂłi törekvĂ©sek, hogy elĆsegĂtsĂ©k a minĂ©l versenyzĆbb Ă©s hatĂ©konyabb integrĂĄlt nagykereskedelmi gĂĄzpiac kialakulĂĄsĂĄt.
Jelen disszertĂĄciĂł a piacmodellezĂ©s segĂtsĂ©gĂ©vel vĂ©gzett gĂĄzpiaci elemzĂ©seim közĂŒl foglal össze nĂ©hĂĄnyat, melyeket a REKK ĂĄltal fejlesztett EurĂłpai GĂĄzpiaci Modell felhasznĂĄlĂĄsĂĄval vĂ©geztem. Ezek az elemzĂ©sek elsĆsorban az orosz beszĂĄllĂtĂłval kötött hosszĂș tĂĄvĂș szerzĆdĂ©sekhez köthetĆ piaci torzĂtĂĄsokkal, illetve az orosz fĂ©l stratĂ©giai viselkedĂ©sĂ©vel kapcsolatos kĂ©rdĂ©sekkel foglalkoznak, mely tĂ©nyezĆk kulcsfontossĂĄgĂșak a nagykereskedelmi gĂĄzĂĄrak Ă©s ezĂĄltal a fogyasztĂłk jĂłlĂ©tĂ©nek alakulĂĄsa szempontjĂĄbĂłl.
Az elsĆ elemzĂ©s nĂ©hĂĄny rövid tĂĄvon alkalmazhatĂł szabĂĄlyozĂłi eszköz hatĂĄsĂĄt vizsgĂĄlja a fogyasztĂłk jĂłlĂ©tĂ©re ellĂĄtĂĄsbiztonsĂĄgi vĂĄlsĂĄghelyzetben, amikor megszƱnik az UkrajnĂĄn keresztĂŒl törtĂ©nĆ orosz gĂĄzszĂĄllĂtĂĄs. A fĆbb eredmĂ©nyek:
A vizsgĂĄlt szabĂĄlyozĂłi eszközök hozzĂĄjĂĄrulnak a gĂĄzszĂĄllĂtĂłi infrastruktĂșra hatĂ©konyabb kihasznĂĄlĂĄsĂĄhoz, ami vĂ©gsĆ soron a fogyasztĂłk jĂłlĂ©tĂ©nek növekedĂ©sĂ©t eredmĂ©nyezi.
MĂg a csak egy-egy vezetĂ©ket Ă©rintĆ intĂ©zkedĂ©seknek (rövid tĂĄvĂș (spot) kereskedelem Ă©s virtuĂĄlis ellenirĂĄnyĂș kereskedelem engedĂ©lyezĂ©se) jellemzĆen kedvezĆ hatĂĄsa inkĂĄbb lokĂĄlis, addig a vezetĂ©kek kĂ©tirĂĄnyĂșvĂĄ alakĂtĂĄsa, a nyugati piacokkal valĂł jobb összeköttetĂ©s rĂ©vĂ©n jelentĆsen növeli a teljes kelet-közĂ©p-eurĂłpai rĂ©giĂł ellĂĄtĂĄsbiztonsĂĄgĂĄt.
A szabĂĄlyozĂłi eszközök egyĂŒttes vizsgĂĄlata sorĂĄn azt talĂĄltuk, hogy MagyarorszĂĄgnak â mivel a szĂĄmszerƱsĂtett haszon jelentĆs rĂ©szĂ©t a magyar fogyasztĂłk realizĂĄljĂĄk â Ă©rdekĂ©ben ĂĄll az eurĂłpai uniĂłs piaci szabĂĄlyozĂĄs tĂĄmogatĂĄsa.
A mĂĄsodik elemzĂ©s cĂ©lja, hogy azonosĂtsa azokat a kulcs infrastruktĂșra-elemeket, amelyek leginkĂĄbb elĆsegĂtik az eurĂłpai piac integrĂĄciĂłjĂĄt. Ezt követĆen szĂĄmszerƱsĂtettĂŒk ezeknek a beruhĂĄzĂĄsoknak a vĂĄrhatĂł jĂłlĂ©ti hatĂĄsĂĄt, majd összevetettĂŒk azt a becsĂŒlt beruhĂĄzĂĄsi költsĂ©gekkel. MegvizsgĂĄltuk azt is, hogyan mĂłdosulna a kulcs infrastruktĂșra-elemek listĂĄja abban az esetben, ha az oroszok megvĂĄltoztatjĂĄk a hosszĂș tĂĄvĂș szerzĆdĂ©sek szĂĄllĂtĂĄsĂĄnak feltĂ©teleit. A fĆbb eredmĂ©nyek a következĆk:
Mindössze nĂ©hĂĄny infrastruktĂșra elem megvalĂłsĂtĂĄsĂĄval biztosĂthatĂł az eurĂłpai gĂĄzpiaci integrĂĄciĂł.
A 2020-as piaci környezetben az azonosĂtott kulcs infrastruktĂșra-projektek megvalĂłsĂtĂĄsa nemcsak rĂ©giĂłs, de uniĂłs szinten is jelentĆs jĂłlĂ©tnövekedĂ©st eredmĂ©nyez, amely jĂłlĂ©tnövekedĂ©s messze meghaladja a beruhĂĄzĂĄsi költsĂ©geket.
Amennyiben az orosz hosszĂș tĂĄvĂș szerzĆdĂ©sek szĂĄllĂtĂĄsi Ăștvonalait megvĂĄltoztatjuk (uniĂłs hatĂĄrokra törtĂ©nĆ szĂĄllĂtĂĄs Ukrajna megkerĂŒlĂ©sĂ©vel), többszörösĂ©re nĆ a projektek megĂ©pĂtĂ©sĂ©nek köszönhetĆ jĂłlĂ©tnövekedĂ©s. Ăgy a szerzĆdĂ©ses feltĂ©telek orosz rĂ©szrĆl törtĂ©nĆ megvĂĄltoztatĂĄsa akĂĄr a versenyzĆbb Ă©s hatĂ©konyabb eurĂłpai piaci mƱködĂ©st is elĆsegĂtheti.
A disszertĂĄciĂł harmadik elemzĂ©se a globĂĄlis gĂĄzpiaci kĂnĂĄlatbĆvĂŒlĂ©s hatĂĄsĂĄt vizsgĂĄlja, ami az ĂĄzsiai gĂĄzkereslet csökkenĂ©sĂ©vel egyĂŒtt egyre inkĂĄbb növeli az eurĂłpai gĂĄzpiacok relatĂv vonzerejĂ©t az ĂĄzsiai piachoz kĂ©pest, Ăgy vĂĄrhatĂłan Ășj belĂ©pĆk piacra lĂ©pĂ©sĂ©hez vezet. Egy egyszerƱ jĂĄtĂ©kelmĂ©leti keretben szintĂ©n piaci modellezĂ©s segĂtsĂ©gĂ©vel vizsgĂĄltam, hogy mi lehet az amerikai cseppfolyĂłsĂtott földgĂĄzt szĂĄllĂtĂł kereskedĆk optimĂĄlis eurĂłpai piacra lĂ©pĂ©si stratĂ©giĂĄja, valamint, hogy milyen stratĂ©giai vĂĄlaszok vĂĄrhatĂłak az eurĂłpai kĂnĂĄlatbĆvĂŒlĂ©sre az orosz fĂ©l rĂ©szĂ©rĆl. A fĆbb eredmĂ©nyek a következĆk:
Magas, illetve alacsony amerikai LNG-ĂĄrakat feltĂ©telezve a spot piacon olcsĂłn törtĂ©nĆ Ă©rtĂ©kesĂtĂ©s az oroszok szĂĄmĂĄra a legmagasabb profitot eredmĂ©nyezĆ vĂĄlaszlĂ©pĂ©s. Ezen eredmĂ©nyek fĂ©nyĂ©ben a Gazprom ĂĄltal 2015 szeptemberĂ©ben megtartott Ă©s a 2015 vĂ©gĂ©re szintĂ©n tervezett aukciĂłk akĂĄr egy kĂ©sĆbbi stratĂ©giai vĂĄlaszlĂ©pĂ©s kiprĂłbĂĄlĂĄsakĂ©nt is Ă©rtelmezhetĆk.
Az eredmĂ©nyek szerint ugyanakkor az amerikai LNG-ĂĄrnak lĂ©tezik egy olyan közĂ©putas szintje, amely mellett az orosz fĂ©lnek nem Ă©rdemes stratĂ©giai vĂĄlaszlĂ©pĂ©seket tenni az amerikaiak piacrĂłl törtĂ©nĆ kiszorĂtĂĄsa Ă©rdekĂ©ben
Time-varying spot and futures oil price dynamics
We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important role than spot markets in the case of contracts with shorter maturities, but the relative contribution of the two types of market turns out to be highly unstable, especially for the most deferred contracts. The implications of these results for hedging and forecasting crude oil spot prices are also discussed.Cointegration, Oil market, Futures prices, Price Discovery.
A top-down approach to identify the most important natural gas cross-border infrastructure projects
Well-conceived infrastructure development is the key to a fully integrated gas market as depicted in the Energy Union Package. Physical interconnection is the hardware that enables security of supply, which has become a particularly high priority issue, especially in the new Member States. The Energy Union package provides financial tools to accelerate the implementation of key PCI projects. Yet, at the same time, gas demand is declining in most European countries, and energy efficiency policies might even accelerate this process. The aim of this paper is to identify the most important missing natural gas interconnections under varying market circumstances
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