NASA-UVA Light Aerospace Alloy and Structures Technology Program: LA(2)ST

The NASA-UVA Light Aerospace Alloy and Structures Technology (LA(2)ST) Program continues a high level of activity, with projects being conducted by graduate students and faculty advisors in the Departments of Materials Science and Engineering, Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics, and Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at the University of Virginia. This work is funded by the NASA-Langley Research Center under Grant NAG-1-745. We report on progress achieved between July 1 and December 31, 1992. The objective of the LA(2)ST Program is to conduct interdisciplinary graduate student research on the performance of next generation, light weight aerospace alloys, composites and thermal gradient structures in collaboration with NASA-Langley researchers. Specific technical objectives are presented for each research project. We generally aim to produce relevant data and basic understanding of material mechanical response, corrosion behavior, and microstructure; new monolithic and composite alloys; advanced processing methods; new solid and fluid mechanics analyses; measurement advances; and critically, a pool of educated graduate students for aerospace technologies

An Analysis of the EU Emission Trading Scheme

The European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is the key policy instrument of the European Commission’s Climate Change Program aimed at reducing green- house gas emissions to eight percent below 1990 levels by 2012. A critically important element of the EU ETS is the establishment of a market determined price for EU allowances. This article examines the extent to which several theoretically founded factors including, energy price movements, economic growth, temperature and stock market activity determine the expected prices of the European Union CO2 allowances during the 2005 through to the 2009 period. The novel aspect of our study is that we examine the heavily traded futures instruments that have an expiry date in Phase 2 of the EU ETS. Our study adopts both static and recursive versions of the Johansen multivariate cointegration likelihood ratio test as well as a variation on this test with a view to controlling for time varying volatility effects. Our results are indicative of a new pricing regime emerging in Phase 2 of the market and point to a maturing market driven by the fundamentals. These results are valuable both for traders of EU allowances and for those policy makers seeking to improve the design of the European Union ETS.CO2 prices, EU ETS, Energy, Kyoto Protocol, Weather

Making a few talk for the many – Modeling driver behavior using synthetic populations generated from experimental data

Understanding driver behavior is the basis for the development of many advanced driver assistance systems, and experimental studies are indispensable tools for constructing appropriate driver models. However, the high cost associated with testing is a serious obstacle in collecting large amounts of experimental data. This paper presents a methodology that can improve the reliability of results from experimental studies with a limited number of participants by creating a virtual population. Specifically, a methodology based on Bayesian inference has been developed, that generates synthetic cases that adhere to various real-world constraints and represent possible variations of the observed experimental data. The application of the framework is illustrated using data collected during a test-track experiment where truck drivers performed a right turn maneuver, with and without a cyclist crossing the intersection. The results show that, based on the speed profiles of the dataset and physical constraints, the methodology can produce synthetic speed profiles during braking that mimic the original curves but extend to other realistic braking patterns that were not directly observed. The models obtained from the proposed methodology have applications for the design of active safety systems and automated driving demonstrating thereby that the developed framework has great promise for the automotive industry

Drilling Induced Fatigue Damage in Ti-6Al-4V

The objective of this work is to develop an understanding of the relationship between hole drilling processes and the fatigue performance of the resulting part in Ti-6Al-4V. This problem is significant, as on the order of one-hundred thousand to a million holes are created in a typical large aircraft, and the limiting performance criterion is usually the fatigue lifetime. The path between the drilling process parameters and the fatigue performance has two main steps: characterization of the thermo-mechanical drill process and assessment of the relationship between the hole integrity left by the drill process and the fatigue performance. Development has been limited by the robustness of previously available thermal characterization systems, poor correlation between drill processes and physical observations of metallic effects, and limited success identifying the key hole integrity characteristics. This work develops robust novel thermal methods which enable integration into current drill process development techniques. The key integrity drivers in the hole wall are identified, characterized, and a system to assess is presented. The thermal and hole integrity trends are presented as guidance for drill process development providing significant opportunities to optimize processes. Thus, this work advances knowledge of the process to fatigue lifetime relationship by correlating the thermo-mechanical drill process to fatigue life in Ti-6Al-4V

Capturing the Zero: A New Class of Zero-Augmented Distributions and Multiplicative Error Processes

We propose a novel approach to model serially dependent positive-valued variables which realize a non-trivial proportion of zero outcomes. This is a typical phenomenon in financial time series observed on high frequencies, such as cumulated trading volumes or the time between potentially simultaneously occurring market events. We introduce a flexible point-mass mixture distribution and develop a semiparametric specification test explicitly tailored for such distributions. Moreover, we propose a new type of multiplicative error model (MEM) based on a zero-augmented distribution, which incorporates an autoregressive binary choice component and thus captures the (potentially different) dynamics of both zero occurrences and of strictly positive realizations. Applying the proposed model to high-frequency cumulated trading volumes of liquid NYSE stocks, we show that the model captures both the dynamic and distribution properties of the data very well and is able to correctly predict future distributions.high-frequency data, point-mass mixture, multiplicative error model, excess zeros, semiparametric specification test, market microstructure