Using a Machine Learning Approach to Implement and Evaluate Product Line Features

Bike-sharing systems are a means of smart transportation in urban environments with the benefit of a positive impact on urban mobility. In this paper we are interested in studying and modeling the behavior of features that permit the end user to access, with her/his web browser, the status of the Bike-Sharing system. In particular, we address features able to make a prediction on the system state. We propose to use a machine learning approach to analyze usage patterns and learn computational models of such features from logs of system usage. On the one hand, machine learning methodologies provide a powerful and general means to implement a wide choice of predictive features. On the other hand, trained machine learning models are provided with a measure of predictive performance that can be used as a metric to assess the cost-performance trade-off of the feature. This provides a principled way to assess the runtime behavior of different components before putting them into operation.Comment: In Proceedings WWV 2015, arXiv:1508.0338

Micromobility evolution and expansion: Understanding how docked and dockless bikesharing models complement and compete – A case study of San Francisco

Shared micromobility – the shared use of bicycles, scooters, or other low-speed modes – is an innovative transportation strategy growing across the United States that includes various service models such as docked, dockless, and e-bike service models. This research focuses on understanding how docked bikesharing and dockless e-bikesharing models complement and compete with respect to user travel behaviors. To inform our analysis, we used two datasets from February 2018 of Ford GoBike (docked) and JUMP (dockless electric) bikesharing trips in San Francisco. We employed three methodological approaches: 1) travel behavior analysis, 2) discrete choice analysis with a destination choice model, and 3) geospatial suitability analysis based on the Spatial Temporal Economic Physiological Social (STEPS) to Transportation Equity framework. We found that dockless e-bikesharing trips were longer in distance and duration than docked trips. The average JUMP trip was about a third longer in distance and about twice as long in duration than the average GoBike trip. JUMP users were far less sensitive to estimated total elevation gain than were GoBike users, making trips with total elevation gain about three times larger than those of GoBike users, on average. The JUMP system achieved greater usage rates than GoBike, with 0.8 more daily trips per bike and 2.3 more miles traveled on each bike per day, on average. The destination choice model results suggest that JUMP users traveled to lower-density destinations, and GoBike users were largely traveling to dense employment areas. Bike rack density was a significant positive factor for JUMP users. The location of GoBike docking stations may attract users and/or be well-placed to the destination preferences of users. The STEPS-based bikeability analysis revealed opportunities for the expansion of both bikesharing systems in areas of the city where high-job density and bike facility availability converge with older resident populations

Predicting bicycle arrivals in a Bicycle Sharing System network: A data science driven approach grounded in Zero-Inflated Regression

The adoption of bicycle sharing systems (BSS) is growing in order to improve the way people move around cities, but also to stimulate the development of a more sustainable urban mobility. For the proper functioning of a BSS, it is important to have bicycles permanently available at the stations for users to start their trips, so the literature has undertaken efforts, from the perspective of the service operator, to improve the process of redistribution of bicycles and thus ensure their availability at the different stations. Since the guarantee of available bicycles cannot be assured, this work proposes to develop, from the cyclist's perspective, a proof of concept on the feasibility of informing the user about the possibility of starting a trip in a pre-defined time interval. The main contributions of this work are: (i) the ability to predict how many bicycles will arrive at a given station is a feasible improvement for BSS, (ii) the models developed through the Zero-Inflated Regression approach are a path that can be explored to improve prediction and (iii) unprecedented methodological contribution to the literature on BSS focusing on the end-user's decision power about whether or not it will soon be possible to start a trip.A adoção de sistemas de bicicletas partilhadas (BSS) vem crescendo com o objetivo de melhorar a forma como as pessoas se deslocam pelas cidades, mas também para estimular o desenvolvimento de uma mobilidade urbana mais sustentável. Para o bom funcionamento de um BSS é importante que haja bicicletas permanentemente disponíveis nas estações para os utilizadores iniciarem as suas viagens, pelo que a literatura tem empreendido esforços, sob a ótica do operador do serviço, para melhorar o processo de redistribuição das bicicletas e assim garantir a sua disponibilidade nas diferentes estações. Como a garantia de bicicletas disponíveis não pode ser assegurada, este trabalho propõe-se desenvolver, sob a ótica do ciclista, uma prova de conceito sobre a viabilidade de informar o utilizador acerca da possibilidade de iniciar uma viagem num intervalo de tempo pré-definido. As principais contribuições deste trabalho são: (i) a capacidade de previsão de quantas bicicletas chegarão a uma determinada estação é uma melhoria viável para os BSS, (ii) os modelos desenvolvidos através da aproximação Zero-Inflated Regression são um caminho que pode ser explorado para melhorar a previsão e (iii) contributo metodológico inédito à literatura sobre os BSS com foco no poder decisório do utilizador final sobre se será, ou não, possível iniciar uma viagem em breve