Quantitative dependability and interdependency models for large-scale cyber-physical systems

Cyber-physical systems link cyber infrastructure with physical processes through an integrated network of physical components, sensors, actuators, and computers that are interconnected by communication links. Modern critical infrastructures such as smart grids, intelligent water distribution networks, and intelligent transportation systems are prominent examples of cyber-physical systems. Developed countries are entirely reliant on these critical infrastructures, hence the need for rigorous assessment of the trustworthiness of these systems. The objective of this research is quantitative modeling of dependability attributes -- including reliability and survivability -- of cyber-physical systems, with domain-specific case studies on smart grids and intelligent water distribution networks. To this end, we make the following research contributions: i) quantifying, in terms of loss of reliability and survivability, the effect of introducing computing and communication technologies; and ii) identifying and quantifying interdependencies in cyber-physical systems and investigating their effect on fault propagation paths and degradation of dependability attributes. Our proposed approach relies on observation of system behavior in response to disruptive events. We utilize a Markovian technique to formalize a unified reliability model. For survivability evaluation, we capture temporal changes to a service index chosen to represent the extent of functionality retained. In modeling of interdependency, we apply correlation and causation analyses to identify links and use graph-theoretical metrics for quantifying them. The metrics and models we propose can be instrumental in guiding investments in fortification of and failure mitigation for critical infrastructures. To verify the success of our proposed approach in meeting these goals, we introduce a failure prediction tool capable of identifying system components that are prone to failure as a result of a specific disruptive event. Our prediction tool can enable timely preventative actions and mitigate the consequences of accidental failures and malicious attacks --Abstract, page iii

Survivability modeling for cyber-physical systems subject to data corruption

Cyber-physical critical infrastructures are created when traditional physical infrastructure is supplemented with advanced monitoring, control, computing, and communication capability. More intelligent decision support and improved efficacy, dependability, and security are expected. Quantitative models and evaluation methods are required for determining the extent to which a cyber-physical infrastructure improves on its physical predecessors. It is essential that these models reflect both cyber and physical aspects of operation and failure. In this dissertation, we propose quantitative models for dependability attributes, in particular, survivability, of cyber-physical systems. Any malfunction or security breach, whether cyber or physical, that causes the system operation to depart from specifications will affect these dependability attributes. Our focus is on data corruption, which compromises decision support -- the fundamental role played by cyber infrastructure. The first research contribution of this work is a Petri net model for information exchange in cyber-physical systems, which facilitates i) evaluation of the extent of data corruption at a given time, and ii) illuminates the service degradation caused by propagation of corrupt data through the cyber infrastructure. In the second research contribution, we propose metrics and an evaluation method for survivability, which captures the extent of functionality retained by a system after a disruptive event. We illustrate the application of our methods through case studies on smart grids, intelligent water distribution networks, and intelligent transportation systems. Data, cyber infrastructure, and intelligent control are part and parcel of nearly every critical infrastructure that underpins daily life in developed countries. Our work provides means for quantifying and predicting the service degradation caused when cyber infrastructure fails to serve its intended purpose. It can also serve as the foundation for efforts to fortify critical systems and mitigate inevitable failures --Abstract, page iii

A Framework to Quantify Network Resilience and Survivability

The significance of resilient communication networks in the modern society is well established. Resilience and survivability mechanisms in current networks are limited and domain specific. Subsequently, the evaluation methods are either qualitative assessments or context-specific metrics. There is a need for rigorous quantitative evaluation of network resilience. We propose a service oriented framework to characterize resilience of networks to a number of faults and challenges at any abstraction level. This dissertation presents methods to quantify the operational state and the expected service of the network using functional metrics. We formalize resilience as transitions of the network state in a two-dimensional state space quantifying network characteristics, from which network service performance parameters can be derived. One dimension represents the network as normally operating, partially degraded, or severely degraded. The other dimension represents network service as acceptable, impaired, or unacceptable. Our goal is to initially understand how to characterize network resilience, and ultimately how to guide network design and engineering toward increased resilience. We apply the proposed framework to evaluate the resilience of the various topologies and routing protocols. Furthermore, we present several mechanisms to improve the resilience of the networks to various challenges

Network Survivability Analysis: Coarse-Graining And Graph-Theoretic Strategies

In this dissertation, the interplay between geographic information about the network and the principal properties and structure of the underlying graph are used to quantify the structural and functional survivability of the network. This work focuses on the local aspect of survivability by studying the propagation of loss in the network as a function of the distance of the fault from a given origin-destination node pair

A novel approach to emergency management of wireless telecommunication system

The survivability concerns the service continuity when the components of a system are damaged. This concept is especially useful in the emergency management of the system, as often emergencies involve accidents or incident disasters which more or less damage the system. The overall objective of this thesis study is to develop a quantitative management approach to the emergency management of a wireless cellular telecommunication system in light of its service continuity in emergency situations – namely the survivability of the system. A particular wireless cellular telecommunication system, WCDMA, is taken as an example to ground this research.The thesis proposes an ontology-based paradigm for service management such that the management system contains three models: (1) the work domain model, (2) the dynamic model, and (3) the reconfiguration model. A powerful work domain modeling tool called Function-Behavior-Structure (FBS) is employed for developing the work domain model of the WCDMA system. Petri-Net theory, as well as its formalization, is applied to develop the dynamic model of the WCDMA system. A concept in engineering design called the general and specific function concept is applied to develop a new approach to system reconfiguration for the high survivability of the system. These models are implemented along with a user-interface which can be used by emergency management personnel. A demonstration of the effectiveness of this study approach is included.There are a couple of contributions with this thesis study. First, the proposed approach can be added to contemporary telecommunication management systems. Second, the Petri Net model of the WCDMA system is more comprehensive than any dynamic model of the telecommunication systems in literature. Furthermore, this model can be extended to any other telecommunication system. Third, the proposed system reconfiguration approach, based on the general and specific function concept, offers a unique way for the survivability of any service provider system.In conclusion, the ontology-based paradigm for a service system management provides a total solution to service continuity as well as its emergency management. This paradigm makes the complex mathematical modeling of the system transparent to the manager or managerial personnel and provides a feasible scenario of the human-in-the-loop management

Modelling and Design of Resilient Networks under Challenges

Communication networks, in particular the Internet, face a variety of challenges that can disrupt our daily lives resulting in the loss of human lives and significant financial costs in the worst cases. We define challenges as external events that trigger faults that eventually result in service failures. Understanding these challenges accordingly is essential for improvement of the current networks and for designing Future Internet architectures. This dissertation presents a taxonomy of challenges that can help evaluate design choices for the current and Future Internet. Graph models to analyse critical infrastructures are examined and a multilevel graph model is developed to study interdependencies between different networks. Furthermore, graph-theoretic heuristic optimisation algorithms are developed. These heuristic algorithms add links to increase the resilience of networks in the least costly manner and they are computationally less expensive than an exhaustive search algorithm. The performance of networks under random failures, targeted attacks, and correlated area-based challenges are evaluated by the challenge simulation module that we developed. The GpENI Future Internet testbed is used to conduct experiments to evaluate the performance of the heuristic algorithms developed

Reliability and Maintenance

Amid a plethora of challenges, technological advances in science and engineering are inadvertently affecting an increased spectrum of today’s modern life. Yet for all supplied products and services provided, robustness of processes, methods, and techniques is regarded as a major player in promoting safety. This book on systems reliability, which equally includes maintenance-related policies, presents fundamental reliability concepts that are applied in a number of industrial cases. Furthermore, to alleviate potential cost and time-specific bottlenecks, software engineering and systems engineering incorporate approximation models, also referred to as meta-processes, or surrogate models to reproduce a predefined set of problems aimed at enhancing safety, while minimizing detrimental outcomes to society and the environment