Systems Statistical Engineering – Hierarchical Fuzzy Constraint Propagation

Driven by a growing requirement during the 21st century for the integration of rigorous statistical analyses in engineering research, there has been a movement within the statistics and quality communities to evolve a unified statistical engineering body of knowledge (Hoerl & Snee, 2010). Systems Statistical Engineering research seeks to integrate causal Bayesian hierarchical modeling (Pearl, 2009) and cybernetic control theory within Beer\u27s Viable System Model (S Beer, 1972; Stafford Beer, 1979, 1985) and the Complex Systems Governance framework (Keating, 2014; Keating & Katina, 2015, 2016) to produce multivariate systemic models for robust dynamic systems mission performance. (Cotter & Quigley, 2018) set forth the Bayesian systemic hierarchical constraint propagation theoretical basis for modeling the amplification and attenuation effects of environmental constraints propagated into systemic variability and variety. In their theoretical development, they simplified the analysis to only deterministic constraints, which models only the effect of statistical risks of failure. Imprecision and uncertainty in the assessment of environmental constraints will induce additional variance components in systemic variability and variety. To make causal Bayesian hierarchical modeling more capable of capturing and representing the imprecise and uncertain nature of environments, we must incorporate rough or fuzzy functions and boundaries to model imprecision and grey boundaries to model uncertainty in constraint propagation at each system level to measure the overall impact on the organization variability and variety. This paper sets forth a proposed research method to incorporate rough, fuzzy, and Grey set theories into Systems Statistical Engineering causal Bayesian hierarchical constraints modeling

Regulation-Structured Dynamic Metabolic Model Provides a Potential Mechanism for Delayed Enzyme Response in Denitrification Process

In a recent study of denitrification dynamics in hyporheic zone sediments, we observed a significant time lag (up to several days) in enzymatic response to the changes in substrate concentration. To explore an underlying mechanism and understand the interactive dynamics between enzymes and nutrients, we developed a trait-based model that associates a community’s traits with functional enzymes, instead of typically used species guilds (or functional guilds). This enzyme-based formulation allows to collectively describe biogeochemical functions of microbial communities without directly parameterizing the dynamics of species guilds, therefore being scalable to complex communities. As a key component of modeling, we accounted for microbial regulation occurring through transcriptional and translational processes, the dynamics of which was parameterized based on the temporal profiles of enzyme concentrations measured using a new signature peptide-based method. The simulation results using the resulting model showed several days of a time lag in enzymatic responses as observed in experiments. Further, the model showed that the delayed enzymatic reactions could be primarily controlled by transcriptional responses and that the dynamics of transcripts and enzymes are closely correlated. The developed model can serve as a useful tool for predicting biogeochemical processes in natural environments, either independently or through integration with hydrologic flow simulators

Dynamic mode decomposition with control

We develop a new method which extends Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) to incorporate the effect of control to extract low-order models from high-dimensional, complex systems. DMD finds spatial-temporal coherent modes, connects local-linear analysis to nonlinear operator theory, and provides an equation-free architecture which is compatible with compressive sensing. In actuated systems, DMD is incapable of producing an input-output model; moreover, the dynamics and the modes will be corrupted by external forcing. Our new method, Dynamic Mode Decomposition with control (DMDc), capitalizes on all of the advantages of DMD and provides the additional innovation of being able to disambiguate between the underlying dynamics and the effects of actuation, resulting in accurate input-output models. The method is data-driven in that it does not require knowledge of the underlying governing equations, only snapshots of state and actuation data from historical, experimental, or black-box simulations. We demonstrate the method on high-dimensional dynamical systems, including a model with relevance to the analysis of infectious disease data with mass vaccination (actuation).Comment: 10 pages, 4 figure

Regulation-Structured Dynamic Metabolic Model Provides a Potential Mechanism for Delayed Enzyme Response in Denitrification Process

In a recent study of denitrification dynamics in hyporheic zone sediments, we observed a significant time lag (up to several days) in enzymatic response to the changes in substrate concentration. To explore an underlying mechanism and understand the interactive dynamics between enzymes and nutrients, we developed a trait-based model that associates a community’s traits with functional enzymes, instead of typically used species guilds (or functional guilds). This enzyme-based formulation allows to collectively describe biogeochemical functions of microbial communities without directly parameterizing the dynamics of species guilds, therefore being scalable to complex communities. As a key component of modeling, we accounted for microbial regulation occurring through transcriptional and translational processes, the dynamics of which was parameterized based on the temporal profiles of enzyme concentrations measured using a new signature peptide-based method. The simulation results using the resulting model showed several days of a time lag in enzymatic responses as observed in experiments. Further, the model showed that the delayed enzymatic reactions could be primarily controlled by transcriptional responses and that the dynamics of transcripts and enzymes are closely correlated. The developed model can serve as a useful tool for predicting biogeochemical processes in natural environments, either independently or through integration with hydrologic flow simulators

Empirical exploration of air traffic and human dynamics in terminal airspaces

Air traffic is widely known as a complex, task-critical techno-social system, with numerous interactions between airspace, procedures, aircraft and air traffic controllers. In order to develop and deploy high-level operational concepts and automation systems scientifically and effectively, it is essential to conduct an in-depth investigation on the intrinsic traffic-human dynamics and characteristics, which is not widely seen in the literature. To fill this gap, we propose a multi-layer network to model and analyze air traffic systems. A Route-based Airspace Network (RAN) and Flight Trajectory Network (FTN) encapsulate critical physical and operational characteristics; an Integrated Flow-Driven Network (IFDN) and Interrelated Conflict-Communication Network (ICCN) are formulated to represent air traffic flow transmissions and intervention from air traffic controllers, respectively. Furthermore, a set of analytical metrics including network variables, complex network attributes, controllers' cognitive complexity, and chaotic metrics are introduced and applied in a case study of Guangzhou terminal airspace. Empirical results show the existence of fundamental diagram and macroscopic fundamental diagram at the route, sector and terminal levels. Moreover, the dynamics and underlying mechanisms of "ATCOs-flow" interactions are revealed and interpreted by adaptive meta-cognition strategies based on network analysis of the ICCN. Finally, at the system level, chaos is identified in conflict system and human behavioral system when traffic switch to the semi-stable or congested phase. This study offers analytical tools for understanding the complex human-flow interactions at potentially a broad range of air traffic systems, and underpins future developments and automation of intelligent air traffic management systems.Comment: 30 pages, 28 figures, currently under revie