23,711 research outputs found
Multivariate Spatiotemporal Hawkes Processes and Network Reconstruction
There is often latent network structure in spatial and temporal data and the
tools of network analysis can yield fascinating insights into such data. In
this paper, we develop a nonparametric method for network reconstruction from
spatiotemporal data sets using multivariate Hawkes processes. In contrast to
prior work on network reconstruction with point-process models, which has often
focused on exclusively temporal information, our approach uses both temporal
and spatial information and does not assume a specific parametric form of
network dynamics. This leads to an effective way of recovering an underlying
network. We illustrate our approach using both synthetic networks and networks
constructed from real-world data sets (a location-based social media network, a
narrative of crime events, and violent gang crimes). Our results demonstrate
that, in comparison to using only temporal data, our spatiotemporal approach
yields improved network reconstruction, providing a basis for meaningful
subsequent analysis --- such as community structure and motif analysis --- of
the reconstructed networks
STAND: A Spatio-Temporal Algorithm for Network Diffusion Simulation
Information, ideas, and diseases, or more generally, contagions, spread over
space and time through individual transmissions via social networks, as well as
through external sources. A detailed picture of any diffusion process can be
achieved only when both a good network structure and individual diffusion
pathways are obtained. The advent of rich social, media and locational data
allows us to study and model this diffusion process in more detail than
previously possible. Nevertheless, how information, ideas or diseases are
propagated through the network as an overall process is difficult to trace.
This propagation is continuous over space and time, where individual
transmissions occur at different rates via complex, latent connections.
To tackle this challenge, a probabilistic spatiotemporal algorithm for
network diffusion (STAND) is developed based on the survival model in this
research. Both time and spatial distance are used as explanatory variables to
simulate the diffusion process over two different network structures. The aim
is to provide a more detailed measure of how different contagions are
transmitted through various networks where nodes are geographic places at a
large scale
Diffusion of Lexical Change in Social Media
Computer-mediated communication is driving fundamental changes in the nature
of written language. We investigate these changes by statistical analysis of a
dataset comprising 107 million Twitter messages (authored by 2.7 million unique
user accounts). Using a latent vector autoregressive model to aggregate across
thousands of words, we identify high-level patterns in diffusion of linguistic
change over the United States. Our model is robust to unpredictable changes in
Twitter's sampling rate, and provides a probabilistic characterization of the
relationship of macro-scale linguistic influence to a set of demographic and
geographic predictors. The results of this analysis offer support for prior
arguments that focus on geographical proximity and population size. However,
demographic similarity -- especially with regard to race -- plays an even more
central role, as cities with similar racial demographics are far more likely to
share linguistic influence. Rather than moving towards a single unified
"netspeak" dialect, language evolution in computer-mediated communication
reproduces existing fault lines in spoken American English.Comment: preprint of PLOS-ONE paper from November 2014; PLoS ONE 9(11) e11311
Spatiotemporal Patterns and Predictability of Cyberattacks
Y.C.L. was supported by Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR) under grant no. FA9550-10-1-0083 and Army Research Office (ARO) under grant no. W911NF-14-1-0504. S.X. was supported by Army Research Office (ARO) under grant no. W911NF-13-1-0141. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD
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