Reliable Uncertain Evidence Modeling in Bayesian Networks by Credal Networks

A reliable modeling of uncertain evidence in Bayesian networks based on a set-valued quantification is proposed. Both soft and virtual evidences are considered. We show that evidence propagation in this setup can be reduced to standard updating in an augmented credal network, equivalent to a set of consistent Bayesian networks. A characterization of the computational complexity for this task is derived together with an efficient exact procedure for a subclass of instances. In the case of multiple uncertain evidences over the same variable, the proposed procedure can provide a set-valued version of the geometric approach to opinion pooling.Comment: 19 page

Generalized belief change with imprecise probabilities and graphical models

We provide a theoretical investigation of probabilistic belief revision in complex frameworks, under extended conditions of uncertainty, inconsistency and imprecision. We motivate our kinematical approach by specializing our discussion to probabilistic reasoning with graphical models, whose modular representation allows for efficient inference. Most results in this direction are derived from the relevant work of Chan and Darwiche (2005), that first proved the inter-reducibility of virtual and probabilistic evidence. Such forms of information, deeply distinct in their meaning, are extended to the conditional and imprecise frameworks, allowing further generalizations, e.g. to experts' qualitative assessments. Belief aggregation and iterated revision of a rational agent's belief are also explored

ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications

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Kohonen-Based Credal Fusion of Optical and Radar Images for Land Cover Classification

International audienceThis paper presents a Credal algorithm to perform land cover classification from a pair of optical and radar remote sensing images. SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) /optical multispectral information fusion is investigated in this study for making the joint classification. The approach consists of two main steps: 1) relevant features extraction applied to each sensor in order to model the sources of information and 2) a Kohonen map-based estimation of Basic Belief Assignments (BBA) dedicated to heterogeneous data. This framework deals with co-registered images and is able to handle complete optical data as well as optical data affected by missing value due to the presence of clouds and shadows during observation. A pair of SPOT-5 and RADARSAT-2 real images is used in the evaluation, and the proposed experiment in a farming area shows very promising results in terms of classification accuracy and missing optical data reconstruction when some data are hidden by clouds