Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Modeling Taxi Drivers' Behaviour for the Next Destination Prediction

In this paper, we study how to model taxi drivers' behaviour and geographical information for an interesting and challenging task: the next destination prediction in a taxi journey. Predicting the next location is a well studied problem in human mobility, which finds several applications in real-world scenarios, from optimizing the efficiency of electronic dispatching systems to predicting and reducing the traffic jam. This task is normally modeled as a multiclass classification problem, where the goal is to select, among a set of already known locations, the next taxi destination. We present a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) approach that models the taxi drivers' behaviour and encodes the semantics of visited locations by using geographical information from Location-Based Social Networks (LBSNs). In particular, RNNs are trained to predict the exact coordinates of the next destination, overcoming the problem of producing, in output, a limited set of locations, seen during the training phase. The proposed approach was tested on the ECML/PKDD Discovery Challenge 2015 dataset - based on the city of Porto -, obtaining better results with respect to the competition winner, whilst using less information, and on Manhattan and San Francisco datasets.Comment: preprint version of a paper submitted to IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation System

When and Where: Predicting Human Movements Based on Social Spatial-Temporal Events

Predicting both the time and the location of human movements is valuable but challenging for a variety of applications. To address this problem, we propose an approach considering both the periodicity and the sociality of human movements. We first define a new concept, Social Spatial-Temporal Event (SSTE), to represent social interactions among people. For the time prediction, we characterise the temporal dynamics of SSTEs with an ARMA (AutoRegressive Moving Average) model. To dynamically capture the SSTE kinetics, we propose a Kalman Filter based learning algorithm to learn and incrementally update the ARMA model as a new observation becomes available. For the location prediction, we propose a ranking model where the periodicity and the sociality of human movements are simultaneously taken into consideration for improving the prediction accuracy. Extensive experiments conducted on real data sets validate our proposed approach

Visual motion processing and human tracking behavior

The accurate visual tracking of a moving object is a human fundamental skill that allows to reduce the relative slip and instability of the object's image on the retina, thus granting a stable, high-quality vision. In order to optimize tracking performance across time, a quick estimate of the object's global motion properties needs to be fed to the oculomotor system and dynamically updated. Concurrently, performance can be greatly improved in terms of latency and accuracy by taking into account predictive cues, especially under variable conditions of visibility and in presence of ambiguous retinal information. Here, we review several recent studies focusing on the integration of retinal and extra-retinal information for the control of human smooth pursuit.By dynamically probing the tracking performance with well established paradigms in the visual perception and oculomotor literature we provide the basis to test theoretical hypotheses within the framework of dynamic probabilistic inference. We will in particular present the applications of these results in light of state-of-the-art computer vision algorithms