A canonical theory of dynamic decision-making

Decision-making behavior is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and eco- nomics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI, and other technical disciplines. However the conceptual- ization of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision-maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision-making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem solving, planning, and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuropsychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering

Proceedings ICPW'07: 2nd International Conference on the Pragmatic Web, 22-23 Oct. 2007, Tilburg: NL

Proceedings ICPW'07: 2nd International Conference on the Pragmatic Web, 22-23 Oct. 2007, Tilburg: N

Investigating biocomplexity through the agent-based paradigm.

Capturing the dynamism that pervades biological systems requires a computational approach that can accommodate both the continuous features of the system environment as well as the flexible and heterogeneous nature of component interactions. This presents a serious challenge for the more traditional mathematical approaches that assume component homogeneity to relate system observables using mathematical equations. While the homogeneity condition does not lead to loss of accuracy while simulating various continua, it fails to offer detailed solutions when applied to systems with dynamically interacting heterogeneous components. As the functionality and architecture of most biological systems is a product of multi-faceted individual interactions at the sub-system level, continuum models rarely offer much beyond qualitative similarity. Agent-based modelling is a class of algorithmic computational approaches that rely on interactions between Turing-complete finite-state machines--or agents--to simulate, from the bottom-up, macroscopic properties of a system. In recognizing the heterogeneity condition, they offer suitable ontologies to the system components being modelled, thereby succeeding where their continuum counterparts tend to struggle. Furthermore, being inherently hierarchical, they are quite amenable to coupling with other computational paradigms. The integration of any agent-based framework with continuum models is arguably the most elegant and precise way of representing biological systems. Although in its nascence, agent-based modelling has been utilized to model biological complexity across a broad range of biological scales (from cells to societies). In this article, we explore the reasons that make agent-based modelling the most precise approach to model biological systems that tend to be non-linear and complex

ART Neural Networks: Distributed Coding and ARTMAP Applications

ART (Adaptive Resonance Theory) neural networks for fast, stable learning and prediction have been applied in a variety of areas. Applications include airplane design and manufacturing, automatic target recognition, financial forecasting, machine tool monitoring, digital circuit design, chemical analysis, and robot vision. Supervised ART architectures, called ARTMAP systems, feature internal control mechanisms that create stable recognition categories of optimal size by maximizing code compression while minimizing predictive error in an on-line setting. Special-purpose requirements of various application domains have led to a number of ARTMAP variants, including fuzzy ARTMAP, ART-EMAP, Gaussian ARTMAP, and distributed ARTMAP. ARTMAP has been used for a variety of applications, including computer-assisted medical diagnosis. Medical databases present many of the challenges found in general information management settings where speed, efficiency, ease of use, and accuracy are at a premium. A direct goal of improved computer-assisted medicine is to help deliver quality emergency care in situations that may be less than ideal. Working with these problems has stimulated a number of ART architecture developments, including ARTMAP-IC [1]. This paper describes a recent collaborative effort, using a new cardiac care database for system development, has brought together medical statisticians and clinicians at the New England Medical Center with researchers developing expert systems and neural networks, in order to create a hybrid method for medical diagnosis. The paper also considers new neural network architectures, including distributed ART {dART), a real-time model of parallel distributed pattern learning that permits fast as well as slow adaptation, without catastrophic forgetting. Local synaptic computations in the dART model quantitatively match the paradoxical phenomenon of Markram-Tsodyks [2] redistribution of synaptic efficacy, as a consequence of global system hypotheses.Office of Naval Research (N00014-95-1-0409, N00014-95-1-0657

Monte Carlo Planning method estimates planning horizons during interactive social exchange

Reciprocating interactions represent a central feature of all human exchanges. They have been the target of various recent experiments, with healthy participants and psychiatric populations engaging as dyads in multi-round exchanges such as a repeated trust task. Behaviour in such exchanges involves complexities related to each agent's preference for equity with their partner, beliefs about the partner's appetite for equity, beliefs about the partner's model of their partner, and so on. Agents may also plan different numbers of steps into the future. Providing a computationally precise account of the behaviour is an essential step towards understanding what underlies choices. A natural framework for this is that of an interactive partially observable Markov decision process (IPOMDP). However, the various complexities make IPOMDPs inordinately computationally challenging. Here, we show how to approximate the solution for the multi-round trust task using a variant of the Monte-Carlo tree search algorithm. We demonstrate that the algorithm is efficient and effective, and therefore can be used to invert observations of behavioural choices. We use generated behaviour to elucidate the richness and sophistication of interactive inference

Prediction-based classification for longitudinal biomarkers

Assessment of circulating CD4 count change over time in HIV-infected subjects on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is a central component of disease monitoring. The increasing number of HIV-infected subjects starting therapy and the limited capacity to support CD4 count testing within resource-limited settings have fueled interest in identifying correlates of CD4 count change such as total lymphocyte count, among others. The application of modeling techniques will be essential to this endeavor due to the typically nonlinear CD4 trajectory over time and the multiple input variables necessary for capturing CD4 variability. We propose a prediction-based classification approach that involves first stage modeling and subsequent classification based on clinically meaningful thresholds. This approach draws on existing analytical methods described in the receiver operating characteristic curve literature while presenting an extension for handling a continuous outcome. Application of this method to an independent test sample results in greater than 98% positive predictive value for CD4 count change. The prediction algorithm is derived based on a cohort of $n=270$ HIV-1 infected individuals from the Royal Free Hospital, London who were followed for up to three years from initiation of ART. A test sample comprised of $n=72$ individuals from Philadelphia and followed for a similar length of time is used for validation. Results suggest that this approach may be a useful tool for prioritizing limited laboratory resources for CD4 testing after subjects start antiretroviral therapy.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS326 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Computerization of workflows, guidelines and care pathways: a review of implementation challenges for process-oriented health information systems

There is a need to integrate the various theoretical frameworks and formalisms for modeling clinical guidelines, workflows, and pathways, in order to move beyond providing support for individual clinical decisions and toward the provision of process-oriented, patient-centered, health information systems (HIS). In this review, we analyze the challenges in developing process-oriented HIS that formally model guidelines, workflows, and care pathways. A qualitative meta-synthesis was performed on studies published in English between 1995 and 2010 that addressed the modeling process and reported the exposition of a new methodology, model, system implementation, or system architecture. Thematic analysis, principal component analysis (PCA) and data visualisation techniques were used to identify and cluster the underlying implementation ‘challenge’ themes. One hundred and eight relevant studies were selected for review. Twenty-five underlying ‘challenge’ themes were identified. These were clustered into 10 distinct groups, from which a conceptual model of the implementation process was developed. We found that the development of systems supporting individual clinical decisions is evolving toward the implementation of adaptable care pathways on the semantic web, incorporating formal, clinical, and organizational ontologies, and the use of workflow management systems. These architectures now need to be implemented and evaluated on a wider scale within clinical settings