Uncertainty Quantification of geochemical and mechanical compaction in layered sedimentary basins

In this work we propose an Uncertainty Quantification methodology for sedimentary basins evolution under mechanical and geochemical compaction processes, which we model as a coupled, time-dependent, non-linear, monodimensional (depth-only) system of PDEs with uncertain parameters. While in previous works (Formaggia et al. 2013, Porta et al., 2014) we assumed a simplified depositional history with only one material, in this work we consider multi-layered basins, in which each layer is characterized by a different material, and hence by different properties. This setting requires several improvements with respect to our earlier works, both concerning the deterministic solver and the stochastic discretization. On the deterministic side, we replace the previous fixed-point iterative solver with a more efficient Newton solver at each step of the time-discretization. On the stochastic side, the multi-layered structure gives rise to discontinuities in the dependence of the state variables on the uncertain parameters, that need an appropriate treatment for surrogate modeling techniques, such as sparse grids, to be effective. We propose an innovative methodology to this end which relies on a change of coordinate system to align the discontinuities of the target function within the random parameter space. The reference coordinate system is built upon exploiting physical features of the problem at hand. We employ the locations of material interfaces, which display a smooth dependence on the random parameters and are therefore amenable to sparse grid polynomial approximations. We showcase the capabilities of our numerical methodologies through two synthetic test cases. In particular, we show that our methodology reproduces with high accuracy multi-modal probability density functions displayed by target state variables (e.g., porosity).Comment: 25 pages, 30 figure

Development and validation of risk profiles of West African rural communities facing multiple natural hazards

West Africa has been described as a hotspot of climate change. The reliance on rain-fed agriculture by over 65% of the population means that vulnerability to climatic hazards such as droughts, rainstorms and floods will continue. Yet, the vulnerability and risk levels faced by different rural social-ecological systems (SES) affected by multiple hazards are poorly understood. To fill this gap, this study quantifies risk and vulnerability of rural communities to drought and floods. Risk is assessed using an indicator-based approach. A stepwise methodology is followed that combines participatory approaches with statistical, remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop community level vulnerability indices in three watersheds (Dano, Burkina Faso; Dassari, Benin; Vea, Ghana). The results show varying levels of risk profiles across the three watersheds. Statistically significant high levels of mean risk in the Dano area of Burkina Faso are found whilst communities in the Dassari area of Benin show low mean risk. The high risk in the Dano area results from, among other factors, underlying high exposure to droughts and rainstorms, longer dry season duration, low caloric intake per capita, and poor local institutions. The study introduces the concept of community impact score (CIS) to validate the indicator-based risk and vulnerability modelling. The CIS measures the cumulative impact of the occurrence of multiple hazards over five years. 65.3% of the variance in observed impact of hazards/CIS was explained by the risk models and communities with high simulated disaster risk generally follow areas with high observed disaster impacts. Results from this study will help disaster managers to better understand disaster risk and develop appropriate, inclusive and well integrated mitigation and adaptation plans at the local level. It fulfills the increasing need to balance global/regional assessments with community level assessments where major decisions against risk are actually taken and implemented

SAVASA project @ TRECVID 2012: interactive surveillance event detection

In this paper we describe our participation in the interactive surveillance event detection task at TRECVid 2012. The system we developed was comprised of individual classifiers brought together behind a simple video search interface that enabled users to select relevant segments based on down~sampled animated gifs. Two types of user -- `experts' and `end users' -- performed the evaluations. Due to time constraints we focussed on three events -- ObjectPut, PersonRuns and Pointing -- and two of the five available cameras (1 and 3). Results from the interactive runs as well as discussion of the performance of the underlying retrospective classifiers are presented

Setting an integrated soil monitoring system for Malta : strategy, feasibility and recommendations

Chapter 6Since 2010, MEPA has embarked on a project (which attracted co-funded ERDF assistance) (1) to develop a multi-thematic environment strategy that would lead to updating of its data/ information monitoring capabilities for a number of environmental sectors. The monitoring and continuous evaluation of soil properties is one important sector within this project. Essentially, a multi-criterion assessment of existing available information has been carried out with a view to objectively chart the most appropriate process to carry out a pilot field sampling by testing a pre-agreed set of indicators. The latter were established after taking into consideration all degradation pressures threatening the continued sustainability of this resource. Multi-criterion analysis was carried out by means of a limited set of soil-related datasets published in past editions of Malta’s State of the Environment Report in order to support a number of objectives stipulated within the Project’s ambitious Terms of Reference. Information was derived from earlier attempts to establish a soil information system for Malta. All soil degradation threats, officially determined by the European Commission’s Technical Working Groups, have been taken into consideration within the aforementioned project and its research methodology with a view of establishing a shared GIS environment in accordance with state-of-the-art information dissemination standards.peer-reviewe

Magnetic loop emergence within a granule

We investigate the temporal evolution of magnetic flux emerging within a granule in the quiet-Sun internetwork at disk center. We combined IR spectropolarimetry performed in two Fe I lines at 1565 nm with speckle-reconstructed G-band imaging. We determined the magnetic field parameters by a LTE inversion of the full Stokes vector using the SIR code, and followed their evolution in time. To interpret the observations, we created a geometrical model of a rising loop in 3D. The relevant parameters of the loop were matched to the observations where possible. We then synthesized spectra from the 3D model for a comparison to the observations. We found signatures of magnetic flux emergence within a growing granule. In the early phases, a horizontal magnetic field with a distinct linear polarization signal dominated the emerging flux. Later on, two patches of opposite circular polarization signal appeared symmetrically on either side of the linear polarization patch, indicating a small loop-like structure. The mean magnetic flux density of this loop was roughly 450 G, with a total magnetic flux of around 3x10^17 Mx. During the ~12 min episode of loop occurrence, the spatial extent of the loop increased from about 1 to 2 arcsec. The middle part of the appearing feature was blueshifted during its occurrence, supporting the scenario of an emerging loop. The temporal evolution of the observed spectra is reproduced to first order by the spectra derived from the geometrical model. The observed event can be explained as a case of flux emergence in the shape of a small-scale loop.Comment: 10 pages, 13 figures; accepted for Astronomy and Astrophysics; ps and eps figures in full resolution are available at http://www.astro.sk/~koza/figures/aa2009_loop