Tracking Topology Dynamicity for Link Prediction in Intermittently Connected Wireless Networks

Through several studies, it has been highlighted that mobility patterns in mobile networks are driven by human behaviors. This effect has been particularly observed in intermittently connected networks like DTN (Delay Tolerant Networks). Given that common social intentions generate similar human behavior, it is relevant to exploit this knowledge in the network protocols design, e.g. to identify the closeness degree between two nodes. In this paper, we propose a temporal link prediction technique for DTN which quantifies the behavior similarity between each pair of nodes and makes use of it to predict future links. We attest that the tensor-based technique is effective for temporal link prediction applied to the intermittently connected networks. The validity of this method is proved when the prediction is made in a distributed way (i.e. with local information) and its performance is compared to well-known link prediction metrics proposed in the literature.Comment: Published in the proceedings of the 8th International Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing Conference (IWCMC), Limassol, Cyprus, 201

An analytical framework to nowcast well-being using mobile phone data

An intriguing open question is whether measurements made on Big Data recording human activities can yield us high-fidelity proxies of socio-economic development and well-being. Can we monitor and predict the socio-economic development of a territory just by observing the behavior of its inhabitants through the lens of Big Data? In this paper, we design a data-driven analytical framework that uses mobility measures and social measures extracted from mobile phone data to estimate indicators for socio-economic development and well-being. We discover that the diversity of mobility, defined in terms of entropy of the individual users' trajectories, exhibits (i) significant correlation with two different socio-economic indicators and (ii) the highest importance in predictive models built to predict the socio-economic indicators. Our analytical framework opens an interesting perspective to study human behavior through the lens of Big Data by means of new statistical indicators that quantify and possibly "nowcast" the well-being and the socio-economic development of a territory

SensibleSleep: A Bayesian Model for Learning Sleep Patterns from Smartphone Events

We propose a Bayesian model for extracting sleep patterns from smartphone events. Our method is able to identify individuals' daily sleep periods and their evolution over time, and provides an estimation of the probability of sleep and wake transitions. The model is fitted to more than 400 participants from two different datasets, and we verify the results against ground truth from dedicated armband sleep trackers. We show that the model is able to produce reliable sleep estimates with an accuracy of 0.89, both at the individual and at the collective level. Moreover the Bayesian model is able to quantify uncertainty and encode prior knowledge about sleep patterns. Compared with existing smartphone-based systems, our method requires only screen on/off events, and is therefore much less intrusive in terms of privacy and more battery-efficient

Location Prediction: Communities Speak Louder than Friends

Humans are social animals, they interact with different communities of friends to conduct different activities. The literature shows that human mobility is constrained by their social relations. In this paper, we investigate the social impact of a person's communities on his mobility, instead of all friends from his online social networks. This study can be particularly useful, as certain social behaviors are influenced by specific communities but not all friends. To achieve our goal, we first develop a measure to characterize a person's social diversity, which we term `community entropy'. Through analysis of two real-life datasets, we demonstrate that a person's mobility is influenced only by a small fraction of his communities and the influence depends on the social contexts of the communities. We then exploit machine learning techniques to predict users' future movement based on their communities' information. Extensive experiments demonstrate the prediction's effectiveness.Comment: ACM Conference on Online Social Networks 2015, COSN 201

Tensor-Based Link Prediction in Intermittently Connected Wireless Networks

Through several studies, it has been highlighted that mobility patterns in mobile networks are driven by human behaviors. This effect has been particularly observed in intermittently connected networks like DTN (Delay Tolerant Networks). Given that common social intentions generate similar human behavior, it is relevant to exploit this knowledge in the network protocols design, e.g. to identify the closeness degree between two nodes. In this paper, we propose a temporal link prediction technique for DTN which quantifies the behavior similarity between each pair of nodes and makes use of it to predict future links. Our prediction method keeps track of the spatio-temporal aspects of nodes behaviors organized as a third-order tensor that aims to records the evolution of the network topology. After collapsing the tensor information, we compute the degree of similarity for each pair of nodes using the Katz measure. This metric gives us an indication on the link occurrence between two nodes relying on their closeness. We show the efficiency of this method by applying it on three mobility traces: two real traces and one synthetic trace. Through several simulations, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the technique regarding another approach based on a similarity metric used in DTN. The validity of this method is proven when the computation of score is made in a distributed way (i.e. with local information). We attest that the tensor-based technique is effective for temporal link prediction applied to the intermittently connected networks. Furthermore, we think that this technique can go beyond the realm of DTN and we believe this can be further applied on every case of figure in which there is a need to derive the underlying social structure of a network of mobile users.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figures, 8 tables, submitted to the International Journal of Computer and Telecommunications Networking (COMNET

Mobile Communication Signatures of Unemployment

The mapping of populations socio-economic well-being is highly constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess; thus the speed of which policies can be designed and evaluated is limited. However, recent studies have shown the value of mobile phone data as an enabling methodology for demographic modeling and measurement. In this work, we investigate whether indicators extracted from mobile phone usage can reveal information about the socio-economical status of microregions such as districts (i.e., average spatial resolution < 2.7km). For this we examine anonymized mobile phone metadata combined with beneficiaries records from unemployment benefit program. We find that aggregated activity, social, and mobility patterns strongly correlate with unemployment. Furthermore, we construct a simple model to produce accurate reconstruction of district level unemployment from their mobile communication patterns alone. Our results suggest that reliable and cost-effective economical indicators could be built based on passively collected and anonymized mobile phone data. With similar data being collected every day by telecommunication services across the world, survey-based methods of measuring community socioeconomic status could potentially be augmented or replaced by such passive sensing methods in the future

Regional economic status inference from information flow and talent mobility

Novel data has been leveraged to estimate socioeconomic status in a timely manner, however, direct comparison on the use of social relations and talent movements remains rare. In this letter, we estimate the regional economic status based on the structural features of the two networks. One is the online information flow network built on the following relations on social media, and the other is the offline talent mobility network built on the anonymized resume data of job seekers with higher education. We find that while the structural features of both networks are relevant to economic status, the talent mobility network in a relatively smaller size exhibits a stronger predictive power for the gross domestic product (GDP). In particular, a composite index of structural features can explain up to about 84% of the variance in GDP. The result suggests future socioeconomic studies to pay more attention to the cost-effective talent mobility data.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, 2 table