Seismic response to evolving injection at the Rotokawa geothermal field, New Zealand

Catalogs of microseismicity are routinely compiled at geothermal reservoirs and provide valuable insights into reservoir structure and fluid movement. Hypocentral locations are typically used to infer the orientations of structures and constrain the extent of the permeable reservoir. However, frequency-magnitude distributions may contain additional, and underused, information about the distribution of pressure. Here, we present a four-year catalog of seismicity for the Rotokawa geothermal field in the central Taupō Volcanic Zone, New Zealand starting two years after the commissioning of the 140 MWe Nga Awa Purua power station. Using waveform-correlation-based signal detection we double the size of the previous earthquake catalog, refine the location and orientation of two reservoir faults and identify a new structure. We find the rate of seismicity to be insensitive to major changes in injection strategy during the study period, including the injectivity decline and shift of injection away from the dominant injector, RK24. We also map the spatial distribution of the earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution, or b-value, and show that it increases from ∼1.0 to ∼1.5 with increasing depth below the reservoir. As has been proposed at other reservoirs, we infer that these spatial variations reflect the distribution of pressure in the reservoir, where areas of high b-value correspond to areas of high pore-fluid pressure and a broad distribution of activated fractures. This analysis is not routinely conducted by geothermal operators but shows promise for using earthquake b-value as an additional tool for reservoir monitoring and management

Seismicity relocation and fault structure near the Leech River Fault Zone, southern Vancouver Island

Relatively low rates of seismicity and fault loading have made it challenging to correlate microseismicity to mapped surface faults on the forearc of southern Vancouver Island. Here we use precise relocations of microsciesmicity integrated with existing geologic data, to present the first identification of subsurface seismogenic structures associated with the Leech River fault zone (LRFZ) on southern Vancouver Island. We used HypoDD double difference relocation method to relocate 1253 earthquakes reported by the Canadian National Seismograph Network (CNSN) catalog from 1985 to 2015. Our results reveal an ~8-10 km wide, NNE-dipping zone of seismicity representing a subsurface structure along the eastern 30 km of the terrestrial LRFZ and extending 20 km farther eastward offshore, where the fault bifurcates beneath the Juan de Fuca Strait. Using a clustering analysis we identify secondary structures within the NNE-dipping fault zone, many of which are sub-vertical and exhibit right-lateral strike-slip focal mechanisms. We suggest that the arrangement of these near-vertical dextral secondary structures within a more general NE-dipping fault zone, located well beneath (10-15 km) the Leech River fault (LRF) as imaged by LITHOPROBE, may be a consequence of the reactivation of this fault system as a right-lateral structure in the crust with pre-existing NNE-dipping foliations. Our results provide the first confirmation of active terrestrial crustal faults on Vancouver Island using a relocation method. We suggest that slowly slipping active crustal faults, especially in regions with pre-existing foliations, may result in microseismicity along fracture arrays rather than along single planar structures

Quantification of potential macroseismic effects of the induced seismicity that might result from hydraulic fracturing for shale gas exploitation in the UK

The furore that has arisen in the UK over induced microseismicity from ‘fracking’ for shale gas development, which has resulted in ground vibrations strong enough to be felt, requires the urgent development of an appropriate regulatory framework. We suggest that the existing regulatory limits applicable to quarry blasting (i.e. peak ground velocities (PGV) in the seismic wavefield incident on any residential property of 10 mm s<sup>−1</sup> during the working day, 2 mm s<sup>−1</sup> at night, and 4.5 mm s<sup>−1</sup>1 at other times) can be readily applied to cover such induced seismicity. Levels of vibration of this order do not constitute a hazard: they are similar in magnitude to the ‘nuisance’ vibrations that may be caused by activities such as walking on wooden floors, or by large vehicles passing on a road outside a building. Using a simple technique based on analysis of the spectra of seismic S-waves, we show that this proposed daytime regulatory limit for PGV is likely to be satisfied directly above the source of a magnitude 3 induced earthquake at a depth of 2.5 km, and illustrate how the proposed limits scale in terms of magnitudes of induced earthquakes at other distances. Previous experience indicates that the length of the fracture networks that are produced by ‘fracking’ cannot exceed 600 m; the development of a fracture network of this size in one single rupture would correspond to an induced earthquake c. magnitude 3.6. Events of that magnitude would result in PGV above our proposed regulatory limit and might be sufficient to cause minor damage to property, such as cracked plaster; we propose that any such rare occurrences could readily be covered by a system of compensation similar to that used over many decades for damage caused by coal mining. However, it is highly unlikely that future ‘fracking’ in the UK would cause even this minor damage, because the amount of ‘force’ applied in ‘fracking’ tends to be strictly limited by operators: this is because there is an inherent disincentive to fracture sterile overburden, especially where this may contain groundwater that could flood-out the underlying gas-producing zones just developed. For the same reason, seismic monitoring of ‘fracking’ is routine; the data that it generates could be used directly to police compliance with any regulatory framework. Although inspired by UK conditions and debates, our proposals might also be useful for other regulatory jurisdictions

Seismic Response to Injection Well Stimulation in a High-Temperature, High-Permeability Reservoir

Fluid injection into the Earth's crust can induce seismic events that cause damage to local infrastructure but also offer valuable insight into seismogenesis. The factors that influence the magnitude, location, and number of induced events remain poorly understood but include injection flow rate and pressure as well as reservoir temperature and permeability. The relationship between injection parameters and injection-induced seismicity in high-temperature, high-permeability reservoirs has not been extensively studied. Here we focus on the Ngatamariki geothermal field in the central Taupō Volcanic Zone, New Zealand, where three stimulation/injection tests have occurred since 2012. We present a catalog of seismicity from 2012 to 2015 created using a matched-filter detection technique. We analyze the stress state in the reservoir during the injection tests from first motion-derived focal mechanisms, yielding an average direction of maximum horizontal compressive stress (SHmax) consistent with the regional NE-SW trend. However, there is significant variation in the direction of maximum compressive stress (σ1), which may reflect geological differences between wells. We use the ratio of injection flow rate to overpressure, referred to as injectivity index, as a proxy for near-well permeability and compare changes in injectivity index to spatiotemporal characteristics of seismicity accompanying each test. Observed increases in injectivity index are generally poorly correlated with seismicity, suggesting that the locations of microearthquakes are not coincident with the zone of stimulation (i.e., increased permeability). Our findings augment a growing body of work suggesting that aseismic opening or slip, rather than seismic shear, is the active process driving well stimulation in many environments

Stress buildup in the Himalaya

The seismic cycle on a major fault involves long periods of elastic strain and stress accumulation, driven by aseismic ductile deformation at depth, ultimately released by sudden fault slip events. Coseismic slip distributions are generally heterogeneous with most of the energy being released in the rupture of asperities. Since, on the long term, the fault's walls generally do not accumulate any significant permanent deformation, interseismic deformation might be heterogeneous, revealing zones of focused stress buildup. The pattern of current deformation along the Himalayan arc, which is known to produce recurring devastating earthquakes, and where several seismic gaps have long been recognized, might accordingly show significant lateral variations, providing a possible explanation for the uneven microseismic activity along the Himalayan arc. By contrast, the geodetic measurements show a rather uniform pattern of interseismic strain, oriented consistently with long-term geological deformation, as indicated from stretching lineation. We show that the geodetic data and seismicity distribution are reconciled from a model in which microseismicity is interpreted as driven by stress buildup increase in the interseismic period. The uneven seismicity pattern is shown to reflect the impact of the topography on the stress field, indicating low deviatoric stresses (<35 MPa) and a low friction (<0.3) on the Main Himalayan Thrust. Arc-normal thrusting along the Himalayan front and east-west extension in southern Tibet are quantitatively reconciled by the model

The Colorado School of Mines Nevada geothermal study

Geothermal systems in the Basin and Range Province of the western United States probably differ in many respects from geothermal systems already discovered in other parts of the world because of the unique tectonic setting. To investigate this, a study of the geothermal occurrences at Fly Ranch, approximately 100 miles north of Reno, Nevada, has been undertaken. Ample evidence for a geothermal system exists in this area, including the surface expression of heat flow in the form of hot springs, an extensive area of low electrical resistivity, and a high level of seismicity along faults bounding the thermal area. However, geophysical and geological studies have not yet provided evidence for a local heat source at depth. Additional detailed geophysical and geological studies, as well as drilling, must be completed before the geothermal system can be described fully