4 research outputs found
Risk estimation by maximizing area under receiver operating characteristics curve with application to cardiovascular surgery
Ankara : The Department of Computer Engineering and the Institute of Engineering and Science of Bilkent University, 2010.Thesis (Master's) -- Bilkent University, 2010.Includes bibliographical references leaves 56-64.Risks exist in many different domains; medical diagnoses, financial markets,
fraud detection and insurance policies are some examples. Various risk
measures and risk estimation systems have hitherto been proposed and this
thesis suggests a new risk estimation method. Risk estimation by maximizing
the area under a Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve (REMARC)
defines risk estimation as a ranking problem. Since the area under ROC curve
(AUC) is related to measuring the quality of ranking, REMARC aims to
maximize the AUC value on a single feature basis to obtain the best ranking
possible on each feature. For a given categorical feature, we prove a sufficient
condition that any function must satisfy to achieve the maximum AUC.
Continuous features are also discretized by a method that uses AUC as a metric.
Then, a heuristic is used to extend this maximization to all features of a dataset.
REMARC can handle missing data, binary classes and continuous and nominal
feature values. The REMARC method does not only estimate a single risk value,
but also analyzes each feature and provides valuable information to domain
experts for decision making. The performance of REMARC is evaluated with
many datasets in the UCI repository by using different state-of-the-art
algorithms such as Support Vector Machines, naïve Bayes, decision trees and boosting methods. Evaluations of the AUC metric show REMARC achieves
predictive performance significantly better compared with other machine
learning classification methods and is also faster than most of them.
In order to develop new risk estimation framework by using the REMARC
method cardiovascular surgery domain is selected. The TurkoSCORE project is
used to collect data for training phase of the REMARC algorithm. The
predictive performance of REMARC is compared with one of the most popular
cardiovascular surgical risk evaluation method, called EuroSCORE.
EuroSCORE is evaluated on Turkish patients and it is shown that EuroSCORE
model is insufficient for Turkish population. Then, the predictive performances
of EuroSCORE and TurkoSCORE that uses REMARC for prediction are
compared. Empirical evaluations show that REMARC achieves better prediction
than EuroSCORE on Turkish patient population.Kurtcephe, MuratM.S