Probability as a physical motive

Recent theoretical progress in nonequilibrium thermodynamics, linking the physical principle of Maximum Entropy Production ("MEP") to the information-theoretical "MaxEnt" principle of scientific inference, together with conjectures from theoretical physics that there may be no fundamental causal laws but only probabilities for physical processes, and from evolutionary theory that biological systems expand "the adjacent possible" as rapidly as possible, all lend credence to the proposition that probability should be recognized as a fundamental physical motive. It is further proposed that spatial order and temporal order are two aspects of the same thing, and that this is the essence of the second law of thermodynamics.Comment: Replaced at the request of the publisher. Minor corrections to references and to Equation 1 added

Dimensions of sustainable development: a proposal of systematization of sustainable approaches

The spreading of the concept of sustainable development asks for a the definition of a sound common ground of the growing number of implementations. Here I propose a synopsis of the criticisms of the major methodological approaches to sustainability and point out the need, according to the ecocentric approaches, of a paradigm shift, from a linear to a systemic perspective, generally utilized in the thermodynamic and biological sciences. Starting from the systematization suggested by Turner, Pearce and Bateman (1996), which divide ustainability in technocentric and ecocentric, this paper shows that not all approaches consider growth always as the best solution to society problems. This implies that sustainability may be viewed as an intersection among the so-called economic, social and environmental pilasters of sustainable development. This work offers instead a concentric representation of it, whereby the environmental system contains the economic and social dimensions, since it represents the set of resources that allows dimensions' functionality. A fourth institutional dimension, participatory democracy, should be added to obtain a complete visualization of sustainable development.Sustainable approaches; Sustainable development; Economic growth; Technocentric approach; Ecocentric approaches; Entropy; Sustainability dimensions.

Production planning with parameters on the basis of dynamic predictive models : interconnection and the inertness of their interaction

The research is related to the increasing role of prognostic models in production systems management, which is associated with an increase in the requirements for managerial efficiency, the need to consider external factors affecting the system, the determination of the features of the systems in question, the examination of the processes in progress and the relationship between the chain of managerial decisions and the values of the selected control parameters. The purpose of the article is to consider and evaluate the consequences of decisions made as a chain of interrelated events in time with regard to the dynamics of the environment in which production systems operate and the variability of control parameters. The leading approach of the research considers the production system as one that is open "in terms of environment" and "in terms of the ultimate goal". The proprietary results demonstrate that the solutions obtained are of a probabilistic nature, the solutions should be set by ranges of possible values, the decision ranges can be arranged in such a way as to introduce variability into the decisions made, the choice of which will be based on factors not taken into account in the proposed method of analyzing production systems. The practical and theoretical significance of the research is that the described methodology allows to obtain optimal values of control parameters based on the objectives of the production system under consideration on the basis of its integrated assessment, taking into account the interaction and the mutual influence of the system’s parameters, their inertness and probabilistic nature, which makes it possible to increase the validity of managerial decisions and to consider the inertness of the processes taking place in the system during planning.peer-reviewe

On investment, uncertainty, and strategic interaction with applications in energy markets

The thesis presents dynamic models on investment under uncertainty with the focus on strategic interaction and energy market applications. The uncertainty is modelled using stochastic processes as state variables. The specific questions analyzed include the effect of technological and revenue related uncertainties on the optimal timing of investment, the irreversibility in the choice between alternative investment projects with different degrees of uncertainty, and the effect of strategic interaction on the initiating of discrete investment projects, on the abandonment of a project, and on incremental capacity investments. The main methodological feature is the incorporation of game theoretic concepts in the theory of investment. It is argued that such an approach is often desirable in terms of real applications, because many industries are characterized by both uncertainty and strategic interaction between the firms. Besides extending the theory of investment, this line of work may be seen as an extension of the theory of industrial organization towards the direction that views market stability as one of the factors explaining rational behaviour of the firms.reviewe

Thermoeconomics - A Thermodynamic Approach to Economics (Second edition)

This second edition of the book stems from work by the author published in Energy Economics, the International Journal of Exergy and follow-up working papers. Topics covered include the gas laws, the distribution of income, first and second laws of thermodynamics, economic processes, elasticity, entropy and utility, production processes, reaction kinetics, empirical monetary analysis of UK and USA economies, interest rates, bonds, yield curves, yield spread, unemployment, entropy maximisation and the cycle, empirical analysis of world energy resources and climate change as factors affecting economic output, and lastly a discussion of sustainabilityThermodynamics, economics, money, value, utility, Le Chatelier, equilibrium, entropy, production, interest rates, yield, energy, exergy, peak oil, gas, coal, climate change

Electoral Business Cycles in OECD Countries

Studies of OECD countries have generally failed to detect real economic expansions in the pre-election period, casting doubt on the existence of opportunistic political business cycles. We develop a theory that predicts a substantial portion of the economy experiences a real decline in the pre-election period. Specifically, the political uncertainty created by elections induces private actors to postpone investments with high costs of reversal. The resulting declines, referred to as reverse electoral business cycles, are larger the more competitive the electoral race and the greater the polarization between major parties. We test these predictions using quarterly data on private fixed investment in ten OECD countries between 1975 and 2006. The results suggest that reverse electoral business cycles exist, and as expected, depend on electoral competitiveness and partisan polarization. Moreover, simply by removing private fixed investment from gross domestic product (GDP), we uncover robust evidence of opportunistic cycles.

CONTEMPORARY ORGANIZATIONAL REALITY THROUGH THE EYES OF CHAOS THEORY: A LITERATURE REVIEW

Since the beginning of scientific management, organizations have been managed by linear structures and rigid scientific understandings, where and for decades scientific models have been dominating the way organizations are built and the way organizational reality is foreseen. Primarily, these traditional managerial perspectives have been challenged by the Chaos theory, which came to detect the linearity ruling each and every aspect of organizations\u27 course of work. Indeed, this theory was not sufficiently conceptualized in organizations’ philosophies and practices; however, within the rapid pace of the continuous changes and instabilities around, the attention to it has been on the rise. Amid the critical importance of linear methodologies and the revolutionary development of Chaos theory, this paper aims to study chaos and the essence of Chaos theory among historical and contemporary perspectives, its contributions to organizations among a bundle of opportunities and constraints, and the extent to which this theory reflects the contemporary organizational reality. Additionally, within the realization of the complex-dynamic features of organizational structures, chaos and order concepts are analyzed along with the convergence and divergence of managerial processes which are debated to be initially embedded in organizations. Furthermore, new managerial perspectives are discussed, giving rise to the challenging necessity in having to persistently manage chaos with flexibility and innovation