A Welfare Analysis of Spectrum Allocation Policies

Analysis of spectrum allocation policies in the economics literature focuses on competitive bidding for wireless licenses. Auctions generating high bids, as in Germany and the UK, are identified as "successful," while those producing lower receipts, as in Switzerland and the Netherlands, are deemed "fiascoes." Yet, even full and costless extraction of license rents does not map directly to social welfare, because spectrum policies creating rents impose social costs. For example, rules favoring monopoly market structure predictably increase license values, but reduce welfare. This paper attempts to shift analytical focus to the relationship between spectrum policy (including license auctions) and efficiency in output markets. In cross-country comparisons of performance metrics in mobile telephone service markets, empirical estimates suggest that countries that auction licenses do not achieve lower prices or higher levels of output than other nations. Rather, countries allocating greater bandwidth to licensed operators and achieving more competitive market structures realize demonstrable social welfare benefits. These gains generally dominate efficiencies associated with license sales. Policies to increase auction revenues, such as reservation prices and subsidies for weak bidders, should be evaluated in this light.

Measuring the Benefits of Mobile Number Portability

Increasing numbers of countries require mobile telephone networks to offer mobile number portability (MNP). MNP allows customers who wish to switch mobile operator to keep their mobile numbers, avoiding the costs of switching to new numbers. Ex ante assessments suggest that MNP should reduce switching costs and strengthen competition. In this paper, we test MNP’s impact on market outcomes using international time-series cross-section data. We find that MNP significantly increases average mobile telephony retail prices and churn (a proxy for switching).

Public Expenditure Accounatability in the Telecom Sector

The telecom sector has seen much change during the past two decades. At first, it was the opening up of the equipment manufacturing sector, followed by the corporatisation of the government owned entities, Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited (VSNL) and Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL). Subsequently, the sector was opened for private participation in basic, cellular and other value added services. The most recent liberalization moves have been the corporatization of the Department of Telecom into Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) and the privatisation of VSNL.

The Impact of Liberalizing the Telecommunication Sector in Morocco

The purpose of this paper is to present the major developments recorded in telecommunication sector in Morocco and assess the impact of regulating the telecommunication sector in Morocco along the European Union lines. The basic assumption underlying this work is the following. Further liberalization of various market segments of the telecommunication sector would benefit communications intensive industries that provide key “backbone services” to the economy, such as transport, distribution and finance. It would also improve competitiveness of exporting industries by reducing their costs and facilitating their integration to transnational production networks. The quality and price of telecommunication services directly affect business costs, but also affects the capacity of firms to network and compete in foreign and domestic markets. Finally, development of telecommunication services sector would create more investment opportunities for the domestic private sector, and help attract more FDI and portfolio investment.Telecommunication services, liberalization, Morocco

Valuation of 3G spectrum license in India: A real option approach

India is about to enter a new technological phase as far as mobile technology is concerned. After almost a decade of existence, Third Generation (3G) mobile technology will be rolled out in India. The licenses for the same were auctioned in April – May 2010 and 3G licenses were allocated to the winners in September 2010. Nine private telecom operators entered the bidding for the license and eventually seven won the licenses. The bidding was intense and eventually the aggregate fees of the license as received by the government were almost twice the expected amount. In the backdrop of experience of 3G auction winners in UK and Germany who paid huge sums to acquire the 3G licenses and later lost their market capitalization as the markets perceived that the price paid for the license was more than the actual value of the license, analysts in India were concerned if the operators had paid too much for the licenses. In this report aggregate value of the 3G licenses is calculated using both traditional discounted cash flow approach and real options approach. We find that the rollout of 3G services gives an internal rate of return of 14.2%over the life of the license. If we assume an internal rate of return of 15% for the telecom operators then the aggregate license value comes out to be INR 594 Billion which is 12% lower than what the operators have paid to acquire the license. We also found out that the value of the license as calculated from the real options methodology is INR 798 Billion which is 17.8% higher than the aggregate value paid by the operators. Hence we see that DCF valuation suggests that the licenses were overvalued while Real Options methodology suggests that the licenses were undervalued. The report discusses the reasons for differences between real option valuation and DCF valuation of the license, the possible challenges that the 3Goperators might face in the short to long term and what are the key enablers for the growth of3G services if they want to extract the maximum mileage out of the 3G technology. The report recommends that in future while allocating telecom licenses or licenses in sectors where high and irreversible investment is required and there is a scope for the licensees to invest in phases or in modules, the government should consider real options methodology for setting the price of the license., or the base price of the licenses in case the government decides to follow an auction methodology3G spectrum, mobile technology, valuation, real options, DCF

Mobile Broadband Expansion Calls for More Spectrum or Base Stations - Analysis of the Value of Spectrum and the Role of Spectrum Aggregation

The breakthrough for mobile broadband is taking the mobile communications industry into a new phase. The number of mobile broadband users in the world exceeds 400 million, and the share of the population in Western Europe with mobile broadband is around 10 per cent and over 15 percent in Austria and Sweden. This development has been propelled by the extensive diffusion of mobile modems (dongles) for laptops and smartphones given users ubiquitous access to mobile internet. Consequently, traffic volumes in the mobile networks have grown immensely, and the mobile data traffic surpassed the mobile voice traffic in the world by the end of 2009, and in for example Sweden, over 75 percent of the mobile traffic is data. --