Advanced methodologies for reliability-based design optimization and structural health prognostics

Failures of engineered systems can lead to significant economic and societal losses. To minimize the losses, reliability must be ensured throughout the system's lifecycle in the presence of manufacturing variability and uncertain operational conditions. Many reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) techniques have been developed to ensure high reliability of engineered system design under manufacturing variability. Schedule-based maintenance, although expensive, has been a popular method to maintain highly reliable engineered systems under uncertain operational conditions. However, so far there is no cost-effective and systematic approach to ensure high reliability of engineered systems throughout their lifecycles while accounting for both the manufacturing variability and uncertain operational conditions. Inspired by an intrinsic ability of systems in ecology, economics, and other fields that is able to proactively adjust their functioning to avoid potential system failures, this dissertation attempts to adaptively manage engineered system reliability during its lifecycle by advancing two essential and co-related research areas: system RBDO and prognostics and health management (PHM). System RBDO ensures high reliability of an engineered system in the early design stage, whereas capitalizing on PHM technology enables the system to proactively avoid failures in its operation stage. Extensive literature reviews in these areas have identified four key research issues: (1) how system failure modes and their interactions can be analyzed in a statistical sense; (2) how limited data for input manufacturing variability can be used for RBDO; (3) how sensor networks can be designed to effectively monitor system health degradation under highly uncertain operational conditions; and (4) how accurate and timely remaining useful lives of systems can be predicted under highly uncertain operational conditions. To properly address these key research issues, this dissertation lays out four research thrusts in the following chapters: Chapter 3 - Complementary Intersection Method for System Reliability Analysis, Chapter 4 - Bayesian Approach to RBDO, Chapter 5 - Sensing Function Design for Structural Health Prognostics, and Chapter 6 - A Generic Framework for Structural Health Prognostics. Multiple engineering case studies are presented to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed RBDO and PHM techniques for ensuring and improving the reliability of engineered systems within their lifecycles

ADVANCES IN SYSTEM RELIABILITY-BASED DESIGN AND PROGNOSTICS AND HEALTH MANAGEMENT (PHM) FOR SYSTEM RESILIENCE ANALYSIS AND DESIGN

Failures of engineered systems can lead to significant economic and societal losses. Despite tremendous efforts (e.g., $200 billion annually) denoted to reliability and maintenance, unexpected catastrophic failures still occurs. To minimize the losses, reliability of engineered systems must be ensured throughout their life-cycle amidst uncertain operational condition and manufacturing variability. In most engineered systems, the required system reliability level under adverse events is achieved by adding system redundancies and/or conducting system reliability-based design optimization (RBDO). However, a high level of system redundancy increases a system's life-cycle cost (LCC) and system RBDO cannot ensure the system reliability when unexpected loading/environmental conditions are applied and unexpected system failures are developed. In contrast, a new design paradigm, referred to as resilience-driven system design, can ensure highly reliable system designs under any loading/environmental conditions and system failures while considerably reducing systems' LCC. In order to facilitate the development of formal methodologies for this design paradigm, this research aims at advancing two essential and co-related research areas: Research Thrust 1 - system RBDO and Research Thrust 2 - system prognostics and health management (PHM). In Research Thrust 1, reliability analyses under uncertainty will be carried out in both component and system levels against critical failure mechanisms. In Research Thrust 2, highly accurate and robust PHM systems will be designed for engineered systems with a single or multiple time-scale(s). To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system RBDO and PHM techniques, multiple engineering case studies will be presented and discussed. Following the development of Research Thrusts 1 and 2, Research Thrust 3 - resilience-driven system design will establish a theoretical basis and design framework of engineering resilience in a mathematical and statistical context, where engineering resilience will be formulated in terms of system reliability and restoration and the proposed design framework will be demonstrated with a simplified aircraft control actuator design problem

A Review of Prognostics and Health Management Applications in Nuclear Power Plants

The US operating fleet of light water reactors (LWRs) is currently undergoing life extensions from the original 40-year license to 60 years of operation. In the US, 74 reactors have been approved for the first round license extension, and 19 additional applications are currently under review. Safe and economic operation of these plants beyond 60 years is now being considered in anticipation of a second round of license extensions to 80 years of operation.Greater situational awareness of key systems, structures, and components (SSCs) can provide the technical basis for extending the life of SSCs beyond the original design life and supports improvements in both safety and economics by supporting optimized maintenance planning and power uprates. These issues are not specific to the aging LWRs; future reactors (including Generation III+ LWRs, advanced reactors, small modular reactors, and fast reactors) can benefit from the same situational awareness. In fact, many SMR and advanced reactor designs have increased operating cycles (typically four years up to forty years), which reduce the opportunities for inspection and maintenance at frequent, scheduled outages. Understanding of the current condition of key equipment and the expected evolution of degradation during the next operating cycle allows for targeted inspection and maintenance activities. This article reviews the state of the art and the state of practice of prognostics and health management (PHM) for nuclear power systems. Key research needs and technical gaps are highlighted that must be addressed in order to fully realize the benefits of PHM in nuclear facilities

A Literature Review of Fault Diagnosis Based on Ensemble Learning

The accuracy of fault diagnosis is an important indicator to ensure the reliability of key equipment systems. Ensemble learning integrates different weak learning methods to obtain stronger learning and has achieved remarkable results in the field of fault diagnosis. This paper reviews the recent research on ensemble learning from both technical and field application perspectives. The paper summarizes 87 journals in recent web of science and other academic resources, with a total of 209 papers. It summarizes 78 different ensemble learning based fault diagnosis methods, involving 18 public datasets and more than 20 different equipment systems. In detail, the paper summarizes the accuracy rates, fault classification types, fault datasets, used data signals, learners (traditional machine learning or deep learning-based learners), ensemble learning methods (bagging, boosting, stacking and other ensemble models) of these fault diagnosis models. The paper uses accuracy of fault diagnosis as the main evaluation metrics supplemented by generalization and imbalanced data processing ability to evaluate the performance of those ensemble learning methods. The discussion and evaluation of these methods lead to valuable research references in identifying and developing appropriate intelligent fault diagnosis models for various equipment. This paper also discusses and explores the technical challenges, lessons learned from the review and future development directions in the field of ensemble learning based fault diagnosis and intelligent maintenance

Failure analysis informing intelligent asset management

With increasing demands on the UK’s power grid it has become increasingly important to reform the methods of asset management used to maintain it. The science of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) presents interesting possibilities by allowing the online diagnosis of faults in a component and the dynamic trending of its remaining useful life (RUL). Before a PHM system can be developed an extensive failure analysis must be conducted on the asset in question to determine the mechanisms of failure and their associated data precursors that precede them. In order to gain experience in the development of prognostic systems we have conducted a study of commercial power relays, using a data capture regime that revealed precursors to relay failure. We were able to determine important failure precursors for both stuck open failures caused by contact erosion and stuck closed failures caused by material transfer and are in a position to develop a more detailed prognostic system from this base. This research when expanded and applied to a system such as the power grid, presents an opportunity for more efficient asset management when compared to maintenance based upon time to replacement or purely on condition

Improved power transformer condition monitoring under uncertainty through soft computing and probabilistic health index

Condition monitoring of power transformers is crucial for the reliable and cost-effective operation of the power grid. The health index (HI) formulation is a pragmatic approach to combine multiple information sources and generate a consistent health state indicator for asset management planning. Generally, existing transformer HI methods are based on expert knowledge or data-driven models of specific transformer subsystems. However, the effect of uncertainty is not considered when integrating expert knowledge and data-driven models for the system-levelHI estimation. With the increased dynamic and non-deterministic engineering problems, the sources of uncertainty are increasing across power and energy applications, e.g. electric vehicles with new dynamic loads or nuclear power plants with de-energized periods, and transformer health assessment under uncertainty is becoming critical for accurate condition monitoring. In this context, this paper presents a novel soft computing driven probabilistic HI framework for transformer health monitoring. The approach encapsulates data analytics and expert knowledge along with different sources of uncertainty and infers a transformer HI value with confidence intervals for decision-making under uncertainty. Using real data from a nuclear power plant, the proposed framework is compared with traditional HI implementations and results confirm the validity of the approach for transformer health assessment

A Data-Driven Predictive Model of Reliability Estimation Using State-Space Stochastic Degradation Model

The concept of the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) provides the foundation to apply data-driven methodologies. The data-driven predictive models of reliability estimation can become a major tool in increasing the life of assets, lowering capital cost, and reducing operating and maintenance costs. Classical models of reliability assessment mainly rely on lifetime data. Failure data may not be easily obtainable for highly reliable assets. Furthermore, the collected historical lifetime data may not be able to accurately describe the behavior of the asset in a unique application or environment. Therefore, it is not an optimal approach anymore to conduct a reliability estimation based on classical models. Fortunately, most of the industrial assets have performance characteristics whose degradation or decay over the operating time can be related to their reliability estimates. The application of the degradation methods has been recently increasing due to their ability to keep track of the dynamic conditions of the system over time. The main purpose of this study is to develop a data-driven predictive model of reliability assessment based on real-time data using a state-space stochastic degradation model to predict the critical time for initiating maintenance actions in order to enhance the value and prolonging the life of assets. The new degradation model developed in this thesis is introducing a new mapping function for the General Path Model based on series of Gamma Processes degradation models in the state-space environment by considering Poisson distributed weights for each of the Gamma processes. The application of the developed algorithm is illustrated for the distributed electrical systems as a generic use case. A data-driven algorithm is developed in order to estimate the parameters of the new degradation model. Once the estimates of the parameters are available, distribution of the failure time, time-dependent distribution of the degradation, and reliability based on the current estimate of the degradation can be obtained

Prognostics and health management for maintenance practitioners - Review, implementation and tools evaluation.

In literature, prognostics and health management (PHM) systems have been studied by many researchers from many different engineering fields to increase system reliability, availability, safety and to reduce the maintenance cost of engineering assets. Many works conducted in PHM research concentrate on designing robust and accurate models to assess the health state of components for particular applications to support decision making. Models which involve mathematical interpretations, assumptions and approximations make PHM hard to understand and implement in real world applications, especially by maintenance practitioners in industry. Prior knowledge to implement PHM in complex systems is crucial to building highly reliable systems. To fill this gap and motivate industry practitioners, this paper attempts to provide a comprehensive review on PHM domain and discusses important issues on uncertainty quantification, implementation aspects next to prognostics feature and tool evaluation. In this paper, PHM implementation steps consists of; (1) critical component analysis, (2) appropriate sensor selection for condition monitoring (CM), (3) prognostics feature evaluation under data analysis and (4) prognostics methodology and tool evaluation matrices derived from PHM literature. Besides PHM implementation aspects, this paper also reviews previous and on-going research in high-speed train bogies to highlight problems faced in train industry and emphasize the significance of PHM for further investigations

MAD: Self-Supervised Masked Anomaly Detection Task for Multivariate Time Series

In this paper, we introduce Masked Anomaly Detection (MAD), a general self-supervised learning task for multivariate time series anomaly detection. With the increasing availability of sensor data from industrial systems, being able to detecting anomalies from streams of multivariate time series data is of significant importance. Given the scarcity of anomalies in real-world applications, the majority of literature has been focusing on modeling normality. The learned normal representations can empower anomaly detection as the model has learned to capture certain key underlying data regularities. A typical formulation is to learn a predictive model, i.e., use a window of time series data to predict future data values. In this paper, we propose an alternative self-supervised learning task. By randomly masking a portion of the inputs and training a model to estimate them using the remaining ones, MAD is an improvement over the traditional left-to-right next step prediction (NSP) task. Our experimental results demonstrate that MAD can achieve better anomaly detection rates over traditional NSP approaches when using exactly the same neural network (NN) base models, and can be modified to run as fast as NSP models during test time on the same hardware, thus making it an ideal upgrade for many existing NSP-based NN anomaly detection models.Comment: Accepted by the 2022 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN 2022