35 research outputs found
Isoelastic Agents and Wealth Updates in Machine Learning Markets
Recently, prediction markets have shown considerable promise for developing
flexible mechanisms for machine learning. In this paper, agents with isoelastic
utilities are considered. It is shown that the costs associated with
homogeneous markets of agents with isoelastic utilities produce equilibrium
prices corresponding to alpha-mixtures, with a particular form of mixing
component relating to each agent's wealth. We also demonstrate that wealth
accumulation for logarithmic and other isoelastic agents (through payoffs on
prediction of training targets) can implement both Bayesian model updates and
mixture weight updates by imposing different market payoff structures. An
iterative algorithm is given for market equilibrium computation. We demonstrate
that inhomogeneous markets of agents with isoelastic utilities outperform state
of the art aggregate classifiers such as random forests, as well as single
classifiers (neural networks, decision trees) on a number of machine learning
benchmarks, and show that isoelastic combination methods are generally better
than their logarithmic counterparts.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on
Machine Learning (ICML 2012
Measuring quality, reputation and trust in online communities
In the Internet era the information overload and the challenge to detect
quality content has raised the issue of how to rank both resources and users in
online communities. In this paper we develop a general ranking method that can
simultaneously evaluate users' reputation and objects' quality in an iterative
procedure, and that exploits the trust relationships and social acquaintances
of users as an additional source of information. We test our method on two real
online communities, the EconoPhysics forum and the Last.fm music catalogue, and
determine how different variants of the algorithm influence the resultant
ranking. We show the benefits of considering trust relationships, and define
the form of the algorithm better apt to common situations
Information Aggregation in Exponential Family Markets
We consider the design of prediction market mechanisms known as automated
market makers. We show that we can design these mechanisms via the mold of
\emph{exponential family distributions}, a popular and well-studied probability
distribution template used in statistics. We give a full development of this
relationship and explore a range of benefits. We draw connections between the
information aggregation of market prices and the belief aggregation of learning
agents that rely on exponential family distributions. We develop a very natural
analysis of the market behavior as well as the price equilibrium under the
assumption that the traders exhibit risk aversion according to exponential
utility. We also consider similar aspects under alternative models, such as
when traders are budget constrained
The supervised hierarchical Dirichlet process
We propose the supervised hierarchical Dirichlet process (sHDP), a
nonparametric generative model for the joint distribution of a group of
observations and a response variable directly associated with that whole group.
We compare the sHDP with another leading method for regression on grouped data,
the supervised latent Dirichlet allocation (sLDA) model. We evaluate our method
on two real-world classification problems and two real-world regression
problems. Bayesian nonparametric regression models based on the Dirichlet
process, such as the Dirichlet process-generalised linear models (DP-GLM) have
previously been explored; these models allow flexibility in modelling nonlinear
relationships. However, until now, Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP)
mixtures have not seen significant use in supervised problems with grouped data
since a straightforward application of the HDP on the grouped data results in
learnt clusters that are not predictive of the responses. The sHDP solves this
problem by allowing for clusters to be learnt jointly from the group structure
and from the label assigned to each group.Comment: 14 page