Twitter mood predicts the stock market

Behavioral economics tells us that emotions can profoundly affect individual behavior and decision-making. Does this also apply to societies at large, i.e., can societies experience mood states that affect their collective decision making? By extension is the public mood correlated or even predictive of economic indicators? Here we investigate whether measurements of collective mood states derived from large-scale Twitter feeds are correlated to the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) over time. We analyze the text content of daily Twitter feeds by two mood tracking tools, namely OpinionFinder that measures positive vs. negative mood and Google-Profile of Mood States (GPOMS) that measures mood in terms of 6 dimensions (Calm, Alert, Sure, Vital, Kind, and Happy). We cross-validate the resulting mood time series by comparing their ability to detect the public's response to the presidential election and Thanksgiving day in 2008. A Granger causality analysis and a Self-Organizing Fuzzy Neural Network are then used to investigate the hypothesis that public mood states, as measured by the OpinionFinder and GPOMS mood time series, are predictive of changes in DJIA closing values. Our results indicate that the accuracy of DJIA predictions can be significantly improved by the inclusion of specific public mood dimensions but not others. We find an accuracy of 87.6% in predicting the daily up and down changes in the closing values of the DJIA and a reduction of the Mean Average Percentage Error by more than 6%

Eliciting risk and time preferences under induced mood states

We test whether induced mood states have an effect on elicited risk and time preferences. Risk preferences between subjects in the control, positive mood, and negative mood treatments are neither economically nor statistically significant. However, we find that subjects induced into a positive mood exhibit higher discount rates and that subjects under negative mood do not differ significantly with a control group. Results also suggest that irrespective of mood state, introducing a cognitively demanding task before risk preference elicitation increases risk aversion and females are less risk averse when in all-female sessions than when in mixed-gender sessions

A pilot study of problem gambling among student online gamblers: mood states as predictors of problematic behaviour

Within the last decade, interest in online gambling has increased. This pilot study examined online gambling among students to identify the extent to which student Internet gamblers manifest a propensity for problem gambling and to understand if mood states at various times are predictors of problem gambling. A questionnaire was administered to 127 student Internet gamblers. In addition to questions asking for basic demographic data, the questionnaire included the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) and the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS). Results showed that approximately one in five online gamblers (19%) was defined as a probable pathological gambler using the SOGS. Among this sample, results also showed that problem gambling was best predicted by negative mood states after gambling online and negative mood states more generally

Physical Activity Health Communication for Adults with Mood Disorders in the United States

Using national representative data, this study sought to examine receipt of physical activity communication and counseling among adults with mood disorders in comparison to the general population in the United States. The sample consisted of adult primary-care visits in the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care and National Ambulatory Medical Care Surveys. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between mental health status and receipt of physical activity communication and counseling. Overall, less than 20% of visits included physical activity communication and counseling. Controlling for covariates, visits for adults with a mood disorder diagnosis were associated with an increased odds of including physical activity communication and counseling, odds ratio = 1.25, 95% confidence interval = [1.08, 1.45]. Although adults with mood disorders were more likely to receive physical activity communication and counseling, most primary-care visits for adults in the United States did not include physical activity communication and counseling

Transcranial Focused Ultrasound to the Right Prefrontal Cortex Improves Mood and Alters Functional Connectivity in Humans

Transcranial focused ultrasound (tFUS) is an emerging method for non-invasive neuromodulation akin to transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) and transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS). tFUS offers several advantages over electromagnetic methods including high spatial resolution and the ability to reach deep brain targets. Here we describe two experiments assessing whether tFUS could modulate mood in healthy human volunteers by targeting the right inferior frontal gyrus (rIFG), an area implicated in mood and emotional regulation. In a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind study, participants received 30 s of 500 kHz tFUS or a placebo control. Visual Analog Mood Scales (VAMS) assessed mood four times within an hour (baseline and three times after tFUS). Participants who received tFUS reported an overall increase in Global Affect (GA), an aggregate score from the VAMS scale, indicating a positive shift in mood. Experiment 2 examined resting-state functional (FC) connectivity using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) following 2 min of 500 kHz tFUS at the rIFG. As in Experiment 1, tFUS enhanced self-reported mood states and also decreased FC in resting state networks related to emotion and mood regulation. These results suggest that tFUS can be used to modulate mood and emotional regulation networks in the prefrontal cortex

Radio and affective rhythm in the everyday

This article explores the role of radio sound in establishing what I term ‘affective rhythms’ in everyday life. Through exploring the affective qualities of radio sound and its capacity for mood generation in the home, this article explores personal affective states and personal organisation. The term affective rhythm relates both to mood, and to routine. It is the combination of both that allows the possibility of thinking about sound and affect, and how they relate to, and integrate with, routine everyday life. The notion of ‘affective rhythm’ forces us to consider the idea of mood in the light of the routine nature of everyday domestic life

Cholinergic regulation of mood: from basic and clinical studies to emerging therapeutics.

Mood disorders are highly prevalent and are the leading cause of disability worldwide. The neurobiological mechanisms underlying depression remain poorly understood, although theories regarding dysfunction within various neurotransmitter systems have been postulated. Over 50 years ago, clinical studies suggested that increases in central acetylcholine could lead to depressed mood. Evidence has continued to accumulate suggesting that the cholinergic system has a important role in mood regulation. In particular, the finding that the antimuscarinic agent, scopolamine, exerts fast-onset and sustained antidepressant effects in depressed humans has led to a renewal of interest in the cholinergic system as an important player in the neurochemistry of major depression and bipolar disorder. Here, we synthesize current knowledge regarding the modulation of mood by the central cholinergic system, drawing upon studies from human postmortem brain, neuroimaging, and drug challenge investigations, as well as animal model studies. First, we describe an illustrative series of early discoveries which suggest a role for acetylcholine in the pathophysiology of mood disorders. Then, we discuss more recent studies conducted in humans and/or animals which have identified roles for both acetylcholinergic muscarinic and nicotinic receptors in different mood states, and as targets for novel therapies