Lower Complexity Bounds for Lifted Inference

One of the big challenges in the development of probabilistic relational (or probabilistic logical) modeling and learning frameworks is the design of inference techniques that operate on the level of the abstract model representation language, rather than on the level of ground, propositional instances of the model. Numerous approaches for such "lifted inference" techniques have been proposed. While it has been demonstrated that these techniques will lead to significantly more efficient inference on some specific models, there are only very recent and still quite restricted results that show the feasibility of lifted inference on certain syntactically defined classes of models. Lower complexity bounds that imply some limitations for the feasibility of lifted inference on more expressive model classes were established early on in (Jaeger 2000). However, it is not immediate that these results also apply to the type of modeling languages that currently receive the most attention, i.e., weighted, quantifier-free formulas. In this paper we extend these earlier results, and show that under the assumption that NETIME =/= ETIME, there is no polynomial lifted inference algorithm for knowledge bases of weighted, quantifier- and function-free formulas. Further strengthening earlier results, this is also shown to hold for approximate inference, and for knowledge bases not containing the equality predicate.Comment: To appear in Theory and Practice of Logic Programming (TPLP

Model Counting of Query Expressions: Limitations of Propositional Methods

Query evaluation in tuple-independent probabilistic databases is the problem of computing the probability of an answer to a query given independent probabilities of the individual tuples in a database instance. There are two main approaches to this problem: (1) in `grounded inference' one first obtains the lineage for the query and database instance as a Boolean formula, then performs weighted model counting on the lineage (i.e., computes the probability of the lineage given probabilities of its independent Boolean variables); (2) in methods known as `lifted inference' or `extensional query evaluation', one exploits the high-level structure of the query as a first-order formula. Although it is widely believed that lifted inference is strictly more powerful than grounded inference on the lineage alone, no formal separation has previously been shown for query evaluation. In this paper we show such a formal separation for the first time. We exhibit a class of queries for which model counting can be done in polynomial time using extensional query evaluation, whereas the algorithms used in state-of-the-art exact model counters on their lineages provably require exponential time. Our lower bounds on the running times of these exact model counters follow from new exponential size lower bounds on the kinds of d-DNNF representations of the lineages that these model counters (either explicitly or implicitly) produce. Though some of these queries have been studied before, no non-trivial lower bounds on the sizes of these representations for these queries were previously known.Comment: To appear in International Conference on Database Theory (ICDT) 201

On the Complexity and Approximation of Binary Evidence in Lifted Inference

Lifted inference algorithms exploit symmetries in probabilistic models to speed up inference. They show impressive performance when calculating unconditional probabilities in relational models, but often resort to non-lifted inference when computing conditional probabilities. The reason is that conditioning on evidence breaks many of the model's symmetries, which can preempt standard lifting techniques. Recent theoretical results show, for example, that conditioning on evidence which corresponds to binary relations is #P-hard, suggesting that no lifting is to be expected in the worst case. In this paper, we balance this negative result by identifying the Boolean rank of the evidence as a key parameter for characterizing the complexity of conditioning in lifted inference. In particular, we show that conditioning on binary evidence with bounded Boolean rank is efficient. This opens up the possibility of approximating evidence by a low-rank Boolean matrix factorization, which we investigate both theoretically and empirically.Comment: To appear in Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26 (NIPS), Lake Tahoe, USA, December 201

First-Order Decomposition Trees

Lifting attempts to speed up probabilistic inference by exploiting symmetries in the model. Exact lifted inference methods, like their propositional counterparts, work by recursively decomposing the model and the problem. In the propositional case, there exist formal structures, such as decomposition trees (dtrees), that represent such a decomposition and allow us to determine the complexity of inference a priori. However, there is currently no equivalent structure nor analogous complexity results for lifted inference. In this paper, we introduce FO-dtrees, which upgrade propositional dtrees to the first-order level. We show how these trees can characterize a lifted inference solution for a probabilistic logical model (in terms of a sequence of lifted operations), and make a theoretical analysis of the complexity of lifted inference in terms of the novel notion of lifted width for the tree

A Unifying Model of Genome Evolution Under Parsimony

We present a data structure called a history graph that offers a practical basis for the analysis of genome evolution. It conceptually simplifies the study of parsimonious evolutionary histories by representing both substitutions and double cut and join (DCJ) rearrangements in the presence of duplications. The problem of constructing parsimonious history graphs thus subsumes related maximum parsimony problems in the fields of phylogenetic reconstruction and genome rearrangement. We show that tractable functions can be used to define upper and lower bounds on the minimum number of substitutions and DCJ rearrangements needed to explain any history graph. These bounds become tight for a special type of unambiguous history graph called an ancestral variation graph (AVG), which constrains in its combinatorial structure the number of operations required. We finally demonstrate that for a given history graph $G$, a finite set of AVGs describe all parsimonious interpretations of $G$, and this set can be explored with a few sampling moves.Comment: 52 pages, 24 figure