Long-term drivers of broadband traffic in next-generation networks

This paper is concerned with long-term (20+ years) forecasting of broadband traffic in next-generation networks. Such long-term approach requires going beyond extrapolations of past traffic data while facing high uncertainty in predicting the future developments and facing the fact that, in 20 years, the current network technologies and architectures will be obsolete. Thus, "order of magnitude" upper bounds of upstream and downstream traffic are deemed to be good enough to facilitate such long-term forecasting. These bounds can be obtained by evaluating the limits of human sighting and assuming that these limits will be achieved by future services or, alternatively, by considering the contents transferred by bandwidth-demanding applications such as those using embedded interactive 3D video streaming. The traffic upper bounds are a good indication of the peak values and, subsequently, also of the future network capacity demands. Furthermore, the main drivers of traffic growth including multimedia as well as non-multimedia applications are identified. New disruptive applications and services are explored that can make good use of the large bandwidth provided by next-generation networks. The results can be used to identify monetization opportunities of future services and to map potential revenues for network operators

DINÂMICA ESPAÇO TEMPO DA DEMANDA POR INTERNET: AS CIDADES DO FUTURO NO CENÁRIO BRASILEIRO DE TELECOMUNICAÇÕES

As necessidades da sociedade digital, como conectividade e acessibilidade, são alteradas de acordo com o tempo e o espaço. Logo, a dinâmica espaço-temporal da demanda por internet transforma o planejamento de investimentos em infraestrutura de telecomunicações em grande desafio. Antever as necessidades de uma sociedade digital em um futuro próximo é uma tarefa complexa, pois o desempenho do mercado é repleto de inovações e incertezas. Então, como convergir a oferta e a demanda das necessidades da sociedade digital com as cidades do futuro? Este trabalho apresenta pesquisa experimental em que uma metodologia é desenvolvida. Para isso, busca compreender os fenômenos que constituem o comportamento da demanda por internet e avaliar os efeitos espaço-temporais em sua dinâmica. Os resultados mostram que os efeitos ao longo do tempo têm impactos distintos sobre a demanda por internet em cada localidade. Tais observações mostram, sobretudo, que a demanda por internet é uma função dependente do espaço-tempo, capaz de influenciar decisões de investimento em infraestrutura de telecomunicações, maximizando o lucro e gerando externalidades positivas, como, por exemplo, na universalização do acesso à internet, a difusão da sociedade digital e a edificação das cidades do futuro

Six emerging trends in media and communications - occasional paper

This paper examines six emerging trends in media and communications, which highlight that consumers are increasingly using personalised access pathways to communications and content services that cut across different networks, devices and services. Introduction The ACMA monitors industry and consumer data to identify changes in the media and communications environment and their impact on regulatory settings. Previous ACMA research, such as Broken concepts1 and the Emerging issues2 series of papers, has identified areas of regulatory strain resulting from changes in this environment. The ACMA’s 2014 data collection program highlighted six further trends that are of particular interest as they indicate challenges to the regulatory frameworks within which the ACMA works. These trends illustrate how developments in communications device technologies and over-the-top (OTT) services and content offer both: new opportunities for businesses and individuals as consumers and citizens potential challenges to confident and optimal use of these new services. The evolving media and communications environment offers new ways to understand and achieve policy objectives, and may expose alternatives to ’black-letter’ regulation. However, changes in media and communications can also strain the effectiveness and efficiency of existing regulatory settings designed in an environment where content and communication services have been delivered by network owners over dedicated networks and devices. The selected trends highlight that consumers are increasingly using personalised access pathways to communications and content services that cut across different networks, devices and services. This paper looks at the implications of these six trends for existing regulatory settings